investigative research. concentrated positions in disruptors & deep value. god. husband. father. love of country. @bxsement
basement
Joined March 2015
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The man has spoken. It's a done deal.
WHEN $OSCR hits $100 I will organize a retail meetup in NYC to meet new people, celebrate conviction, hard work, and execution! Book it!
🎯🤷♂️
Have a funny feeling the celebration posts I’ve seen for buying the bottom of averaging down and being up X % or amount in 2 days is a short term 🚩 on the AI trade. cost averaging or adding in key spots is different then going all in!
I’m all for hitting buy when the timing and price makes sense but there is a different aura to this as though all these guys with 25-100k accounts have outsmarted the market.
We’ll see! I recon any commentary today on rising rates into year end which impacts the cost of raising money for buildouts will not be viewed as awesomeness
When I say being selective when buying dips on stocks you have a fundamental edge on this is what I mean:
Today is a bloodbath in tech/growth. $OSCR is in healthcare but with a signficant growth story coming through via their tech and management exeuction. A low volume/shallow pullback today speaks volume to me.
It may dip more but I like the nuance into earnings week and have powder to buy more.
I expect this to be trading materially higher by February '27.
Awesome post! As I stated a few weeks ago I had a feeling $OSCR would be proactively tackling the ID requirements and not letting that become an issue for them! I suspect this is one way they have chosen to tackle the problem and there are certainly more on the backend.
Absolutely going to crush it.
$OSCR's Sales Executive team are hard at work briefing brokers and more importantly incentivising brokers for this year's open enrollment season
A video on Youtube (linked in next post) shows a Sales Executive's briefing/pitch to America's Health Care Plan (AHCP) about Oscar's plans for 2027
There are a few interesting stats in the video, like the number of departing Aetna members that were captured by this particular group of brokers last year and updates to the NPS stats, spoilers: It's 71 now with Spanish speakers being 88 against industry average of 12
The particular thing that caught my attention is the member bonus program which provides early commissions paid this December for early bird enrollment which is for sign ups between 1st and 30th November but more importantly this is only paid out if ID proofing is completed. The ID and fake enrollees has been a big thing and created huge negative headlines in 2026 and Oscar are using the best incentive available to combat this, appealing to sales people's wallets!
Usually OEP commissions for brokers for enrollment would be paid April to July the following year but brokers who get things done quickly and more importantly make sure the ID is watertight will get a December 2026 payment
Sales people are driven by one thing, the $ flowing into their pocket. In my profession I deal with and financially look after about 500 sales people every day and I can confirm that what Mark B said at Oscar's Investor day was absolutely true which was:
"Brokers work on one simple principle, I want the highest level of earnings associated with a joule of energy."
However, I also know that Sales people will go to extraordinary lengths to have that money paid earlier to them and Oscar are offering exactly that but only if the members are ID verified
So incentivising urgency in an army of brokers by appealing to their wallet appears to be at least part of Mark Bertolini's battle plan to leverage those brokers to do the work for Oscar and make sure OEP 2027 breaks records but also comes with as little fraud, waste and abuse as possible.
On the negative side, this likely means a larger than usual SG&A spike for Q4, I can live with that.
Open enrollment begins Saturday. I'm extremely confident that $OSCR broker education channel is far beyond what any other company is doing and it will pay off as big or bigger than it did for 2026.
Still feel like this is in play through the end of next week..
Have a funny feeling the celebration posts I’ve seen for buying the bottom of averaging down and being up X % or amount in 2 days is a short term 🚩 on the AI trade. cost averaging or adding in key spots is different then going all in!
I’m all for hitting buy when the timing and price makes sense but there is a different aura to this as though all these guys with 25-100k accounts have outsmarted the market.
We’ll see! I recon any commentary today on rising rates into year end which impacts the cost of raising money for buildouts will not be viewed as awesomeness
Absolutely love this! No sense in lottery tickets. They’re designed for you to lose over the long term and stay addicted to the game by occasionally giving you a payoff that appears like it was worth playing the game but in reality it keeps you coming back and losing
Have a funny feeling the celebration posts I’ve seen for buying the bottom of averaging down and being up X % or amount in 2 days is a short term 🚩 on the AI trade. cost averaging or adding in key spots is different then going all in!
I’m all for hitting buy when the timing and price makes sense but there is a different aura to this as though all these guys with 25-100k accounts have outsmarted the market.
We’ll see! I recon any commentary today on rising rates into year end which impacts the cost of raising money for buildouts will not be viewed as awesomeness
I think this is the new normal and have been discussing it often. Doesn’t mean a bubble can’t still pop at some point but even after that I believe this will be a new part of how market dynamics work
As we progress further and further in an AI era, sentiment and narrative are becoming consensus in seconds or minutes that took weeks. People who would never reach a conclusion are able to do so in a few prompts. It doesn’t mean they are right or their valuation metrics are correct. It just changes the velocity and sharpness of the moves directionally. My opinion is this is never going away.
Those who adjust to the new normal and can take advantage of the swings that create short term asymmetry because the intrinsic value didn’t actually change as much as traded is a new edge.
@mcuban isn’t wrong the market has changed. But I don’t think we are in a bubble for that reason. We are in our new normal and a bubble may or may not pop sometime in the future caused in part by this new dynamic.
Mark Cuban believes we're in a market bubble saying everything from Bitcoin to Apple and Google is being traded like meme stocks
“I think we're in a bubble but not the same as the internet bubble back in 2001”
“I think what's different now is everything's a meme stock. Bitcoin is a meme stock. Micron, Google, Apple, they're meme stocks”
“A company might miss earnings by a penny or only beat by a penny and their stock will be down 18%”
“The intrinsic value of that company hasn't changed 18%. It's just that buyers and sellers move in and move out very quickly”
“We're trading them like baseball cards. There's no intrinsic value to this card. It's just perceived value and what do you think somebody else will pay for it. I think we're in a bubble for that very reason”
“What causes it to burst? I have no idea”
Open enrollment opens in 10 days: Nov 1.
$OSCR is showing up with its biggest footprint ever: 713 counties across 21 states. +24% growth YoY. Market share for the taking from competitors dropping out of key states.
My underwriting to be seen in February:
$24B+ revenue at 5% margin in 2027 as a base case.
Pricing power plus compounding growth.
CHOICE grows faster than anticipated.
There is a lot of great information available if you spend some time and look in the right places. @fahdananta has some great stuff. Everyone should check out roachcap.com/ and scroll down to the memos.
"Secrets of the Best PMs" Fahd says the following at the bottom when discussing ecosystem control:
"Every business is its own economic ecosystem made of interrelated constituents (ex. sellers, buyers, operations, third party vendors, investors, employees). The best companies are able to exert control over their ecosystem, meaning the constituent groups are economically locked in to the business in a way that makes exiting irrational.
This is achieved through mutual incentives and deep value propositions. When every participant is economically incentivized to stay and build deeper, the company's cash flows become more durable, more predictable, and more capital efficient. That durability compounds the intrinsic value of the company.
Anyone can be a good baker by following a recipe and practicing. To be an excellent baker, you have to understand the flour, the yeast, the oven, the timing, the chemistry, the suppliers, the customers, the weather, and how they all act on each other. Learn to understand every single constituent of the ecosystem you play in and you will be playing a different game."
That is a really amazing clip to internalize.
More market for the taking $OSCR
They had less than 8% market share there but if the number for enrollees in the state remains 1.3m that is 100k members up for grabs!
Oscar is ready. I know they are and have done the networking with brokers. A lot of that ongoing now I’m sure.
30%+ coming!
Austin was intrigued in $OPEN not that long ago. Funny that it was at the prices that didn’t make sense and he fell victim to buying in at a poor valuation after it was a momentum trade. Not an investment.
He did take a 1% position which means he must have thought at some point there was an intriguing argument for this to 10x from the $5-$6 range. What people pay him for.
He blames his bad timing on Kaz. Now I understand where the hate comes from. It’s lack of personal responsibility and blaming management instead.
The problem is the share price over time will value the business correctly. The business and the operating leverage has changed significantly since then.
I would challenge Austin to research the company again now - really in depth - see what Kaz and team has done and is planing, and reconsider.
Now with sentiment in the trash, a reasonable valuation, turnaround taking shape, about to see impact in earnings, and the more data the faster the wheel spins, is a great time to consider that 1-2% starter position and it really does have 10x potential from here if it starts moving in the right direction.
A good leader and steward of capital would say “I mistimed this and made a mistake” not say Kaz has destroyed shareholder value since taking over.
It really is unfortunate especially from someone like Austin who has a big following and claims to write about stocks that have 10x potential - of which $OPEN is one.
One of the bigger blunders is at surface level Austin looked at a chart and immediately associated that with damage to shareholders without using a brain cell.
Where was the stock trading relative to intrinsic value? What was the business worth then? What is it worth today? A drawdown alone answers none of those questions.
Austin is viewing the chart as all the evidence required of CEO / manager failure without discussing what the valuation was at $8-$10, what was broken, what the thesis is, and how long the turnaround could take.
A stock can lose value because its starting point was unreasonable and unsustainable. At $8 a share it was trading at an unreasonable valuation that never made sense based on the numbers. At $2 it’s actually a position where the turnaround makes sense. That decline does NOT correlate to @nejatian destroying 85% of shareholder value. That’s a crazy take!
Opendoor’s old model had a fundamental problem: it was capital-intensive, exposed to housing cycles, and dependent on buying homes at the right price and reselling them fast enough.
The strategic reset was never supposed to take a quarter or two. It was a multi year reset. It was a failing business model that needed a major overhaul. If you’re someone looking for 10x returns you surely understand it takes more than a quarter for changes to impact the business and for the wheel to really start flying. After Kaz this was never about buying and selling homes. It’s about building tech, collecting data, and optimizing the entire process to become the brand and first stop//one stop shop for buyers and sellers.
Technology, automation, lower transaction costs, better inventory decisions, and a more efficient cost structure can matter more than short-term revenue growth. This doesn’t happen in a quarter. You need the data from real transactions to make the impact you’re looking for. This takes time.
In-house computer vision cut processing time for 100k listings from 34 hours to 4. Valuation-model runtime fell from 12 hours to 5.5. Annualized hosting costs fell from $12M to under $5M. Better tools, lower costs, faster decisions
New products and distribution: Mortgage, title, financing, partner channels, and a broader transaction platform can create value beyond the original iBuying model. The value created here has been immense. It may not show in the numbers yet but it wasn’t supposed to yet.
The opportunity is to monetize the customer relationship and transaction infrastructure without putting the same amount of capital at risk in every home.
Recruiting talent, changing incentives, rebuilding the operating model, and shipping new products are inputs to a turnaround. The financial results lag those changes.
They needed to offload a ton of inventory that was toxic to what they were trying to build that was inherited. Contribution profit is improving, contribution margin is improving, new products like Cash Now, More Later, better lending, inventory listed for >120 days fell to 9%. Operating expenses per acquisition are down significantly to ~$3k. The product roadmap is expanding to assist in building a brand vs just being another option.
The stock price is not the business. None of this guarantees Kaz & team succeeds. The test is sustained profitability, cash generation, and attractive returns on capital.
But a turnaround isn’t completed in 6-12 months. Product development, technology, hiring, process changes, and better acquisition cohorts take time to flow through reported earnings.
It’s whether the current enterprise value properly reflects the balance sheet, the improving operating model, and the earnings power of the business being built.
You can argue the valuation is wrong. You can’t establish that by pointing at a chart. You definitely can’t say Kaz destroyed value.
obfuscated retweeted
For 2027, we’re bringing more choice to more people, built around how they actually live.
Oscar is expanding to 713 counties across 21 states, while growing a lineup designed around different life stages, health needs and budgets, from RetireEase and HelloMeno to expanded dental + vision options, @HyVee with Oscar, CHOICE and more.
It’s all part of building healthcare that feels more personal, easier to use and made for real life.
See what’s new for 2027: hioscar.com/blog/press-relea…
obfuscated retweeted
Today, $OSCR unveiled its 2027 health insurance lineup for millions of consumers during the open enrollment period. Oscar is entering South Carolina and expanding its footprint to 713 counties across 21 states, a 24% increase in counties from last year.
PLAN CHOICES
First, RetireEase, a health plan that simplifies the transition from early retirement to Medicare. Members can stay with trusted doctors and receive set prices for preventive visits, lab work, physical therapy, heart care, and bone-and-joint care. The plan also includes $0 generic medications and caregiving, transportation, and Medicare-transition resources. RetireEase is available in Arizona, Florida, Ohio, South Carolina, and Texas.
$OSCR is expanding HelloMeno to 15 states, offering women navigating menopause a $0 package of hormone replacement therapy, bone-density scans, insomnia medications, and cancer screenings.
Hy-Vee Health with $OSCR is also expanding in Iowa and into Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas, delivering concierge care and healthy food discounts at Hy-Vee stores.
BUNDLES
Consumers in Florida and Texas can add supplemental cash-pay options to any $OSCR plan through a new partnership with Allstate Health Solutions. These low-cost options help cover medical bills from accidents, serious illnesses, or hospital stays.
$OSCR is also introducing more than 250 new $OSCR plans with dental and vision coverage automatically bundled. The all-in-one package includes $0 preventive dental checkups, $0 eye exams, and discounted vision benefits.
CHOICE OFFERINGS
Employees whose employers offer CHOICE Arrangements can select from more than 250 $OSCR products across 15 states.
OSCAR REWARDS
$OSCR members have access to Oswell, an everyday AI health guide that turns complex questions into personalized guidance, helps members understand and find care, and clarifies next steps. Members can also earn up to $125 in annual rewards points for healthy actions through $OSCR Unlocks. Members are eligible to receive an $OSCR savings card to use points on premiums and receive up to 60% off at more than 70,000 retailers, gyms, and more.
This is further proof that $OSCR is prepared for the 2027 OEP which begins in less than 2 weeks.
$OSCR growing their footprint county wise by 24% into 2027 OEP is excellent news!
Super “news” I still believe 2027 numbers will be way beyond what people think.
After premium increase and new members I think revenue YoY can be in the neighborhood of > 30%+
I am of the belief the next real opportunity for $OSCR positioning will be between November earnings and February earnings.
The market still has concerns and I think it’s totally calling uncle on their ability to grow 20% YoY during OEP.
Also hesitant on midterms!
Still and rightly so keeping Lucie and CHOICE as a free call options and not pricing any in.