Director, Nuclear Information Project, Federation of American Scientists. Tracking nuclear arsenals, writing Nuclear Notebook, SIPRI Yearbook. Opinions my own.
Washington, D.C.
Joined February 2009
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In our latest FAS Nuclear Notebook we take a look at India’s nuclear arsenal, status and new developments. Freely available in:
• PDF (@tandfonline) tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.…
• Web (@BulletinAtomic) thebulletin.org/premium/2026…
Questions, corrections, suggestions welcome.
Despite the impressive capabilities of the MOAB conventional bomb, a comparison that it “is like a small nuke” is a stretch. MOAB is normally estimated to have an explosive yield equivalent to 11 tons of TNT. The smallest U.S. nuke is about 300 tons of TNT.
According to @CNN, Trump is considering using MOABs against Pickaxe nuclear site. I would not be dismissive of the idea as CSIS expert was on Thursday’s Erin Burnett. The rationale of using a MOAB is that the blast is so violent that it can overcome typical blast traps of tunnel entrances. It is like a small nuke; it is difficult to engineer entrances to withstand that level of a blast.
The goal may be the confirmed closure of known access routes at Pickaxe, creating a monitored condition. Reopening is an observable change requiring action. That can be valuable even when the condition of the underground chambers would remain unknown. Moreover, MOABs would destroy surface support structures and utilities.
Monitored closure, with lack of information about activities inside, has been the situation for months at Esfahan Mtn complex and the underground Natanz enrichment plant. So MOABs could put Pickaxe in the same condition as the other two nuclear sites.
Note: Fordow was destroyed by earth penetrators, GBU-57s, reaching the underground halls via crashing through ventilation systems. While we have discovered probable ventilation shafts at Pickaxe, it is uncertain how they reach the main underground halls. But a MOAB on a ventilation shaft may be worth trying, if there is one to spare.
The huge blast would be on the surface. Pickaxe is an isolated site, so neighboring communities would be unlikely to be affected by the blast.
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
According to @CNN, Trump is considering using MOABs against Pickaxe nuclear site. I would not be dismissive of the idea as CSIS expert was on Thursday’s Erin Burnett. The rationale of using a MOAB is that the blast is so violent that it can overcome typical blast traps of tunnel entrances. It is like a small nuke; it is difficult to engineer entrances to withstand that level of a blast.
The goal may be the confirmed closure of known access routes at Pickaxe, creating a monitored condition. Reopening is an observable change requiring action. That can be valuable even when the condition of the underground chambers would remain unknown. Moreover, MOABs would destroy surface support structures and utilities.
Monitored closure, with lack of information about activities inside, has been the situation for months at Esfahan Mtn complex and the underground Natanz enrichment plant. So MOABs could put Pickaxe in the same condition as the other two nuclear sites.
Note: Fordow was destroyed by earth penetrators, GBU-57s, reaching the underground halls via crashing through ventilation systems. While we have discovered probable ventilation shafts at Pickaxe, it is uncertain how they reach the main underground halls. But a MOAB on a ventilation shaft may be worth trying, if there is one to spare.
The huge blast would be on the surface. Pickaxe is an isolated site, so neighboring communities would be unlikely to be affected by the blast.
Thank you to David Kearn for raising these points relevant to the debate about nuclear options. tandfonline.com/eprint/H6RJT…
The problem is not lack of options but those advocating for more by creating doubts about those that already exist.
NNSA did explosive experiment to improved US ability to “detect and characterize nuclear explosive events” globally. energy.gov/nnsa/articles/nns…
With better ability to detect and characterize, and no technical need for US nuke test, US can continue to promote test ban.
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
"Is the Dead Hand back? Well, it never went away" - My take on the story about Kosvinsky Kamen/The Dead Hand/Perimeter. Website: russianforces.org/blog/2026/… Substack: russianforces.substack.com/p…
The self-dumbing by this administration is frightening and self-defeating. After cutting ties to universities, the Department of the Air Force apparently has decided to axe @CASI_Research and other research centers. Who needs insight at a time of growing strategic competition? 🙄
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
@googleearth has recently begun blurring out military sites in South Korea.
Read more in the debut blog by our team's newest @ScovillePF Fellow, Sachi Barnaby, on @scientistsorg:
fas.org/publication/excessiv…
Hui Zhang is documenting expansion of China’s uranium enrichment capacity. 👇
"Rapid expansion of China's enrichment capacity at Emeishan" by Hui Zhang. Website: fissilematerials.org/blog/20… Substack: fissilematerials.substack.co…
Trumpies are doing a chest-thumping dance about new agreement reached with Denmark over Greenland. Few details yet but Trump doesn’t “get Greenland,” can continue to operate military facilities, and Russia/China can’t build bases they didn’t plan to build. apnews.com/article/trump-gre…
The launch of a sounding rocket from Hawaii tested technology for the Mk7 reentry vehicle being developed for the U.S. Navy’s new W93 nuclear warhead. Mk7 will also be used for Britain’s next warhead. First full Mk7 flight test is planned in two years. newsreleases.sandia.gov/atra…
Trump regime cancels limits on coal/gas power plant pollution, takes step to prevent future govs from regulating power plant pollution. This after canceling limits on trucks/cars. apnews.com/article/epa-power…
Why can they made decisions that will kill thousands and not go to jail?
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
The US-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement is now public.
As expected, the text raises some serious nonproliferation concerns.
Particularly critical, the Bilateral Safeguards Agreement required by the deal is not an adequate substitute for the IAEA Additional Protocol.
It’s hard to say goodbye to a team member like @elianajjohns after nearly four years on the Nuclear Information Project. But a point of raising next-gen nuke capacity is to empower and enable, in this case for a PHD at UMD. I know she’ll do great!! 👏👏👏
No words will be enough to convey the gratitude I have for my amazing team members, @nukestrat, @mattkorda, and @m_knight7. It has been an immense privilege to work alongside them, learn from them, and be a small part of the NIP's incredible legacy!
How a false claim about Iranian nukes spread on social media (including X) and was amplified by Israeli and U.S. officials. nytimes.com/2026/08/16/busin…
Hans Kristensen (also on Bluesky) retweeted
#FactFriday ➡️ Global military spending increased to $2887 billion in 2025, bringing the global military burden—military expenditure as a share of GDP—to 2.5%.
Accurate, dependable information matters more than ever. Invest in the facts. Support SIPRI: donate.sipri.org
After STRATCOM #DeterrenceSymposium we’re getting the tour at Offutt AFB and the “Doomsday” plane. Kind of surreal.
The E-6B transmits launch codes to SSBNs and ICBMs. One of them recently flew an ICBM mission to the three Minuteman III ICBM fields. The E-6B will be replaced by a C-130 in the future that will only do SSBN part.
