Invisible Friends is one of the most criminally wasted IPs in web3.
Cartoons, games, toys, board games - the right angle can turn this into a universe George Lucas would envy.
Nobody just cared enough to build it.
Until now, finally!
Kudos, @coinbilly🫡
norb retweeted
A project that prints money every day and has already bought back almost 30% of its circulating supply - it was obvious for me $PUMP was extremely undervalued.
Happy to see deep research proving it from another angle.
Two protocols generate 69% of all crypto holder revenue.
The rest of the “investible” market is embarrassingly small.
I put together a list of 132 tokens across 12 narratives that might survive the bear market.
Read it here: ignasdefi.com/p/the-investib…
A project that prints money every day and has already bought back almost 30% of its circulating supply - it was obvious for me $PUMP was extremely undervalued.
Happy to see deep research proving it from another angle.
Two protocols generate 69% of all crypto holder revenue.
The rest of the “investible” market is embarrassingly small.
I put together a list of 132 tokens across 12 narratives that might survive the bear market.
Read it here: ignasdefi.com/p/the-investib…
You prob know you can make some SOL from your Solana wallets by closing unused token accounts.
Just tested 3 services with the same wallet:
claimyoursol - 0.00163 SOL
sol-incinerator - 0.02 SOL
getmysol - 0.026539 SOL
The winner is obvious. Looks like I left 1–2 SOL on the table by always using the first service.
My ref link if you find this useful:
getmysol.io/?ref=47B563D1
DYOR and see for yourself if you don't believe me.
A secret insider pushing AI to victory?
Some interesting shifts are happening in one of my favorite markets - TIME 2025 Person of the Year.
Not only is AI rapidly pulling ahead, but I’ve noticed some very unusual behavior from one trader.
Is this insider knowledge - or just a strong conviction bet?
goingsocial has been on Polymarket since 2023, made ~$100k in mid-2024, then went quiet after a costly miss on Japan’s new Prime Minister.
Small bets for months… and suddenly he’s back firing hard.
In just the last three days, he accumulated $78k in YES, becoming the largest holder of the AI winner outcome!
Why is he so confident?
Is this insider knowledge - or just a strong conviction bet?
Hard to say for now. Let’s keep watching how this plays out 👀
Trader - polymarket.com/@goingsocial?…
Market - polymarket.com/event/time-20…
ALT Time's Person of the Year is Artificial Intelligence
GPT ads by December 31?
Wow, what an interesting market I bumped into recently:
polymarket.com/event/openai-…
I never really thought about this scenario tbh, I always assumed that paid subscriptions would cover the cost of free access to ChatGPT.
But the AI arms race is in full swing:
> Gemini is already breathing down OpenAI’s neck,
> Grok is weird but getting smarter and smarter,
> Anthropic with Claude has basically secured the title of the best coding LLM.
Because of that, OpenAI desperately needs more capital to stay competitive, while Altman says ChatGPT has around 800 million weekly users, and only a small percentage of them actually pay.
Launching ads on ChatGPT will open a massive new stream of cash for OpenAI for sure.
But here’s the question: will you trust an LLM if you know it shows ads and its answers might be biased because of that?
Today, several major media outlets published articles on this topic, and some users are already reporting seeing ads in their free accounts.
Meanwhile, on Polymarket, the odds of this happening before New Year’s are only 10%, although the market is pretty volatile.
ALT ChatGPT launching ads
Have you noticed how Polymarket has already become a part of our daily life?
The Kobeissi Letter - a major financial newsletter with 1.1M followers made a post about Kevin Hassett as the next Fed Chairman and used a Polymarket screenshot as a regular data source, just like a TradingView chart, a WSJ headline, or CNBC market data.
In a few months, Polymarket will become the industry standard for referring to anything related to event probabilities, rumors, expectations, and forecasts.
Some people just aren’t built for Polymarket
We’re seeing a lot of success stories on Twitter about Polymarket, but the truth is - some people simply can’t be profitable.
Maybe it’s the wrong strategy, maybe it’s psychological… But let’s take a look at three of the worst Polymarket traders by a mix of win rate and total losses.
polymarket.com/@0xPolymarket…
I’ve seen a lot of posts about traders making money by betting on low-probability outcomes, buying YES at tiny prices with crazy good risk-reward.
This guy is trying to do the same, but he’s clearly doing something wrong, ending up with –$95k across 96 predictions.
Maybe one day his moonshot will hit and give him a 20x–50x, but there’s a huge risk he’ll go bankrupt long before that happens.
polymarket.com/@krikcrok?via…
Same story, but even worse, –$312k from only 10 bets. And ALL ten are red.
Poor guy just can’t win anything - every bet is a losing one.
polymarket.com/@Solapump?via…
As you can guess from the nickname, this trader is a big Solana fan.
His biggest losses came from betting that Solana would hit a new ATH this year and even reach $260.
To be fair, Solana did touch $253, which was extremely close but after the drop started, he kept holding the position.
This tells us one thing: he can’t cut risk, and we can clearly see the consequences.
The takeaway?
Just like in traditional trading:
> manage your risk
> close losing positions when everything goes against you
> find your edge
Don’t be like these guys.
ALT Worst Polymarket winrate traders
Easy +5% to your Polymarket balance after news like this
Now the MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2025 market looks completely solved, and traders are massively dumping their YES positions.
Awesome news for the $MSTR holders
Market:
polymarket.com/event/microst…
ALT MicroStrategy sells bitcoin market Establishment Reserve announcement
NEW: STRATEGY ANNOUNCES IT HAS ESTABLISHED A USD RESERVE OF $1.44 BILLION TO SUPPORT PAYMENT OF DIVIDENDS AND INTEREST
SOURCE: sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/…
Will Pope Leo XIV become the most searched person on Google this year?
I have no idea tbh, but the trader SnakeVenom is convinced he will - he’s bought YES for $22k yesterday.
And what’s remarkable is that this is basically his first and only bet. Quite an interesting market choice, isn’t it?
Overall, according to @hash_dive, smart traders are actively stacking YES, while the mediocre ones lean toward NO.
Maybe for the first time I’ll follow the smart bettors and pick up some YES here as well.
Market:
polymarket.com/event/1-searc…
Oscars 2026: Best Director Winner on Polymarket looks almost entirely decided.
78% - Paul Thomas Anderson
The market is pricing in an easy win for Paul Thomas Anderson and his much-talked-about One Battle After Another starring DiCaprio.
The film received overwhelming praise from both critics and regular viewers - this is what happens when an arthouse director finally gets a blockbuster-level budget haha.
11% - Chloé Zhao
In second place is Chloé Zhao with her new film Hamnet, clearly inspired (as the title suggests) by Shakespeare.
The movie has only just begun its theatrical rollout, and not even in all countries yet, but it’s already earning strong ratings on IMDb and Rotten Tomatoes. It’s worth remembering Zhao already has a Best Director Oscar for Nomadland.
The remaining three directors on the list are priced extremely low - in the 2–3% range.
I actually think this could be a decent spot to bet - Chloé Zhao YES, simply because many bettors still aren’t aware of the film at all, and it’s likely to take its share of expectations as awareness grows, potentially pushing it into the 20–25%+ range.
Market:
polymarket.com/event/oscars-…
Who’s your favorite? Have you seen any of these films yet?
Was busy with offline stuff all day, didn’t open Polymarket even once.
Decided to open Reddit in the evening to catch up on what’s going on in the world, and boom, after the very first scroll I see a Polymarket screenshot.
@Polymarket everywhere
ALT Portugal Presidential Election Polymarket Reddit
Portugal Presidential Election 2026
As a foreigner who has been living in Portugal for three years now, I’m fairly familiar with the local political landscape, so let’s take a closer look at the main candidates and try to understand who actually has the best chance of winning.
The current President of Portugal, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a moderate conservative with deep ties to the PSD, is stepping down after completing his second consecutive 5-year term, which is the constitutional maximum.
As the chart shows, Portugal’s 2026 presidential race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive and unpredictable in years. Voter preferences are shifting almost daily, but here’s a quick breakdown of the key contenders:
1️⃣Luís Marques Mendes – the establishment conservative pick. Former PSD leader with decades of political experience. Seen as a logical continuation of the current president’s PSD-aligned politics and positioning himself as the “experience + stability” option. His strength is credibility; his weakness is appearing too traditional in a moment that wants change.
2️⃣Henrique Gouveia e Melo – a highly respected admiral who led Portugal’s successful vaccination campaign. Projects competence, discipline and a neutral, above-party approach. He has long been one of the most trusted public figures in the country.
3️⃣André Ventura – the firebrand leader of the far-right Chega party. A charismatic populist trying to turn his party’s rapid rise into a presidential breakthrough. Bold, polarising, and very much the wildcard of the race.
4️⃣João Cotrim Figueiredo – a classical-liberal advocate focused on economic freedom, market reforms and a more efficient state. A strong communicator with clear messaging and solid appeal among urban, pro-business voters, though still held back by IL’s relatively small base.
5️⃣António José Seguro – the moderate independent technocrat with roots in the centre-left. Pragmatic, calm and administrative. Offers competence and continuity, but struggles to energize a fragmented socialist electorate.
Now, my take:
> Henrique Melo (2️⃣) has been rapidly losing support, and I think this trend will either stay flat or continue downward. I’m taking NO here. He doesn’t seem to offer much new and increasingly looks like a mid-tier candidate who will be outperformed by others. Very likely to lose in the second round if it happens.
>André Ventura (3️⃣) is interesting, but far too young, too radical-right, too populist, and too aggressive for a presidential role. I don’t see politically calm and conservative Portuguese voters choosing him. Even if he somehow reaches the second round, he will lose there. Easy NO for me.
>João Figueiredo (4️⃣) is actually worth paying attention to - gaining momentum and looking like a real dark horse. If he sneaks into the second round, I’m not so confident he loses. So I won’t bet NO here. I might even grab a little YES as kind of a moonbag.
>The last candidate (5️⃣) looks too bland for the current moment, simple NO for me.
And my plan:
You can just buy YES for João Cotrim Figueiredo, but I don’t really like the current (fair but pretty high) price. Personally, I prefer the multiple NO setup on 2️⃣, 3️⃣ and 5️⃣candidates and maybe a very small YES bag for João Figueiredo (4️⃣)
As I mentioned, the main issue with this market is that it’s up to the judges/oracle to interpret the results.
And that’s exactly what happened - we’re already going through the third round of disputes🤦♂️
I’ll probably just take my small profit and move on to the next market instead of waiting 2 days.
Will a balloon deflate during the 2025 Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade?
I stumbled upon this funny @Polymarket market that actually resolves today, and decided to gamble a bit - grabbed some NO, because historically noticeable balloon damage or deflation happens pretty rarely, roughly once every 10–15 years, judging from my quick research.
The rules are described quite clearly:
"A balloon will be considered ‘deflated’ if it significantly loses air, resulting in a notable change in its shape, size, or ability to float as intended. Minor leaks or damage that do not visibly alter the balloon’s appearance or functionality will not count."
However, it’s worth keeping in mind that this market is still relatively easy to manipulate:
► First, “significantly loses air” is up to the judges/oracle to interpret. It’s very likely that a balloon might lose some air, and the situation ends up being extremely debatable.
► Second, if a big bettor shows up, in theory they could try to “help” a balloon deflate. Shoot it with a slingshot, throw a dart, whatever.
You can find the market here:
polymarket.com/event/will-a-…
ALT Macy's Thanksgiving parade balloon deflation
Will a balloon deflate during the 2025 Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade?
I stumbled upon this funny @Polymarket market that actually resolves today, and decided to gamble a bit - grabbed some NO, because historically noticeable balloon damage or deflation happens pretty rarely, roughly once every 10–15 years, judging from my quick research.
The rules are described quite clearly:
"A balloon will be considered ‘deflated’ if it significantly loses air, resulting in a notable change in its shape, size, or ability to float as intended. Minor leaks or damage that do not visibly alter the balloon’s appearance or functionality will not count."
However, it’s worth keeping in mind that this market is still relatively easy to manipulate:
► First, “significantly loses air” is up to the judges/oracle to interpret. It’s very likely that a balloon might lose some air, and the situation ends up being extremely debatable.
► Second, if a big bettor shows up, in theory they could try to “help” a balloon deflate. Shoot it with a slingshot, throw a dart, whatever.
You can find the market here:
polymarket.com/event/will-a-…
ALT Macy's Thanksgiving parade balloon deflation
Why did I close my NO position on a 25bps rate cut in December at a loss
You can call me a hamster buying the top and selling the bottom, whatever, I’ll just share my thoughts here.
Today we’re seeing a full V-shaped recovery in @Polymarket’s odds for a 25bps December rate cut.
The probability jumped from 20% to 83% in less than a week.
So what happened?
After Powell’s hawkish tone during his recent appearance, investors got scared there would be no rate cut, and tbh that fear was justified.
Everything changed after the November 20th unemployment report.
Even a 0.1% uptick in unemployment is a clear signal that the economy shouldn’t be slowed down - it needs support.
Now the market is once again pricing in a December cut, and Fed officials are shifting their tone in sync. More and more comments about the need for easing as the labor market weakens and the economy cools down.
There’s no major macro data before December 10 (when the Fed decision comes out), so the only thing that could break the consensus is a random “black swan.” I assume that’s what the remaining 17% represent, and this probability should keep shrinking day by day.
So, as I mentioned earlier, I closed my NO position and I’m even looking to buy YES in the 75–82c range if the market offers it.
ALT Fed decision December 25 bps decrease
Top Polymarket Traders X accs part 1
I started putting this list together for myself and was shocked by how few followers some top traders have. Even though some of them don’t tweet much, several accounts are VERY useful if you want to level up your forecasting and prediction skills.
Hope these guys won’t block me for tagging them haha, but if they do - this is the way.
fengdubiying
@AnselFang
Polymarket legend with a crazy $3,200,780 all-time profit. Tweets often and shares genuinely useful insights, but it’s all in Chinese, so keep your translation app handy.
Latina
@thicccandjuiicy
This guy literally burst into Polymarket two weeks ago and already made $2.7M - instantly jumping to second place on my list with just 15 predictions!
As for his tweets - well, when you’ve won that much, you can afford to shitpost every hour. Winners aren’t judged😉
ImJustKen
@Domahhhh
Another legend with $2,471,022 total profit. He doesn’t tweet much, but appears on podcasts from time to time. I haven’t listened yet, but it’s one of the top things on my to-do list.
Think about it - one of the best Polymarket traders literally goes on a podcast and explains how he thinks and makes decisions!
yatsen
@HarveyMackinto2
Another Chinese star with $2,255,303 PnL.
Looks like he’s back to occasional posting after a long break. Tweets are in Chinese.
aenews2
@aenews
$1,477,712 in winning bets across 1,987 predictions.
Not entirely sure this X profile is the real one - it’s not linked on Polymarket, so there’s a small chance it could be an imposter. DYOR.
scottilicious
@scottonPoly
Legendary politics trader with $1,269,883 PnL.
One of the most useful accounts on this list, but don’t trust me cuz I might be biased (so far the only top trader who follows me).
debased
@debased_PM
Judging by the perfectly smooth chart and the trading frequency that led to $1,055,299 in winnings, it seems like an automated strategy or some form of arbitrage. Almost never tweets.
gopfan2
@r_gopfan
Rounding out the list of active 1M+ PnL traders.
Bets on crypto, politics, weather - basically everything. Unfortunately, barely tweets anything.
BuckMySalls
@IvanCryptoSlav
Again, can’t be 100% certain this is his real X account since it’s not linked, but it seems affiliated.
If it is him, this is one of the best accounts for polishing your politics-betting understanding - regular tweets, Substack posts, and more.
slight-
@SemioticRivalry
Last but not least - Polymarket trader with $865,633 PnL. Doesn’t tweet often, but every post is a little gem.
The X acc isn’t linked either, so always keep in mind there’s a small chance it’s an imposter.
Are you following any of these monsters? Should I drop part 2?
