Opus 5.5 continues to be incredible, but I am constantly reminded that it still makes incredibly stupid product/UX decisions. If you tell it to build something substantial without giving it guidance and carefully reviewing, your output is going to suck ass (guaranteed).
Nick Bonatsakis retweeted
99.3% of the people telling you that “distribution is the only moat remaining” have never distributed anything except that opinion.
Narrative violation:
Claude writes about 90% of Claude Code's code.
From June to September, merged PRs more than doubled while the share reverted fell by more than 40%.
We wrote about how we changed code review to get there, and how to adopt it:
claude.dev/blog/solving-code…
Gotta love the people that have already achieved generational wealth continually telling everyone else that the door is now closed.
I'd expand the moats left to:
- Proprietary data or content: data nobody else has, or unique content you can create
- Network effects / community: users make it more valuable for each other
- Audience / distribution: you can get attention on demand
- Physical component: hardware, locations, real-world operations
- Capital: owning assets and investing (esp into the AI companies as they are and will suck up large parts of the economy)
- Regulatory: licenses and legal barriers
Mixpanel has served me well, but I'm about to just build out my own system onto of CloudFlare and be done with it. I never touch their UI, and the data features I need are behind premium plans that are not worth it at my scale.
Yup - but also, these "new" teams of software experts will (unlike before) own the full lifecycle from development to deployment/ops. AI will make it possible, but there will be a great deal of complexity to manage.
I've been thinking a lot about this. Buckle up.
Back in the 90s and early 2000s, most devs worked internally at companies, building custom, on prem, internal software.
Fast forward to the 2010s, and SAAS companies explode in popularity, replacing the need for so many internal devs, because now you build the CRM once, and resell it to thousands of companies.
You might think this would lead to fewer devs... But as we know, the SAAS age was incredible for dev careers.
Now, software is even cheaper. Cheaper even than reusable saas. We're gonna build more software internally again. Not all of it will be internal, saas isn't totally dead, but weird one offs that might have been kinda jankily solved with a kinda-related SAAS, can now be solved with bespoke internal software.
The cost of that software IS NOT zero. People saying that don't understand the concept of zero. But it is cheaper. I predict small teams of internal devs building incredible amounts of highly custom internal software will be a thing. At nearly every company of every type, as long as it's more than a ~30 person org.
This is what I have been predicting will start happening: large/medium software providers compress, but the demand for "software expert" or whatever new name you want to give it, may go up as small/medium biz start bringing software creation in house.
Talked to a finance guy today who said his firm has not only totally stopped buying software in favor of building it all in-house, they've actually hired multiple SWEs to do the buildouts, even though their salaries cost more than the subscription fees they were paying. Having tools custom-built for their specific business is just that valuable. So they're not spending less money or saving time, versus the pre-AI world, but they're getting a much higher return on the money and time they are spending. Much to ponder
I'm not really excited about a world where buying shit on Amazon and booking travel turns into high frequency trading.
I've been using AI agents to run a lot of my life lately. First Instinct, now Muse. Hotels, restaurants, stuff I buy - all over chat. Used to work well, but things are changing right now as agents are getting blocked.
Both are free. Meta pays for Muse. VCs pay for most of the rest. That won't last.
Someone ends up paying, and the obvious candidate is the hotel or store on the other side.
That's the problem. If hotels pay my agent per booking, is it booking me the best room - or the one that pays the most? Same if I ask for a stroller: the best one, or the brand paying the biggest cut? With Google I see a page of options and the ads are labeled. With an agent I see one answer.
My bet is it goes the other way. Agents pool demand. 5,000 people want a beach week in Cabo (Mexico) in November. 50,000 parents need a stroller this month. The agent takes that to the sellers and they compete for it.
The agent gets paid for bringing buyers, not for steering them.
That's the one I'd want working for me.
We are about to have an iPhone moment for bandwidth.
Everybody needs a broadband provider and a mobile provider, but basically broadband and mobile providers are universally hated for monopolistic abuse of customers, fees, awful customer service, and on and on.
If Starlink comes in with one service that covers mobile and residential broadband, with simple pricing, and streamlined product, people are going to flock to it in short order.
We announced an agreement to acquire a nationwide low-band spectrum license portfolio that will pave the way for @Starlink to become a major mobile carrier in the US.
With this new spectrum and our Gen2 constellation, Starlink Mobile can ensure Americans have access to high-speed mobile broadband no matter where they are → spacex.com/updates#starlink-…
Answer: no
Why?
Because this is being done for attention/engagement.
Why are we not getting similar "leaks" out of Google/Meta. Why are those companies seemingly unconcerned?
🚨Breaking: OpenAI and Anthropic executives are reportedly privately preparing for catastrophic AI events
According to Axios, they're planning for the fallout of a major AI cyberattack that could potentially take down banking, internet or power
Absolutely insane that we're already at this point, many AI industry insiders apparently believe a major incident will happen within the next 6 to 12 months
The real answer for what consumers would love:
- Agents handle buying the toilet paper and such.
- Humans continue shopping for the fun stuff.
As you were.
I don't think I've seen a topic as wildly, incapacitatingly, intellectually deranging as Agentic Commerce.
Note that there are no arguments here; it is taken for granted that a) "people" (who?) will want agents to buy "stuff" (what stuff?) for them and b) "they" (who?) won't want to use "some Amazon-supplied agent to do it" (why not? And how do we interpret Amazon's in incremental annualized sales in 2025 from Rufus / Alexa for Shopping then?).
This is not disciplined, logical analysis. This is faith; religious fervor. That some new technological capability becomes the dominant consumer form factor is asserted as inevitable without support.
But we know what retail platforms' incentives are: to directly manage consumer relationships so as to induce broader monetization, advertising revenue, and deeper integration (see: Amazon and Walmart commentary on the value of advertising to their businesses, Amazon's deterministic identity spine reaching 90% of US households, Walmart's acquisition of Vizio and vibe, etc.).
If all of this is stripped away: what actual opportunity exists to compete with Amazon? In other words, if the consumer relationship is competed away, what's the value of merely operating the agent <-> retailer plumbing? Sounds like a commodity with substantial operating costs if the retail platform is still expected to manage fulfillment and logistics, customer service / returns, etc.
Or will the agent do this?
A startup is going to replace the largest, most efficient distribution network on earth?
And herein lies the problem: AI has always been great at producing insanely convincing information even if false or incomplete. So you do this, get something that screenshots well, generates lots of social media engagement, but when held up under even a small amount of scrutiny you quickly realize that the devils in the details.
You can tell that Muse was built somewhat in isolation when you encounter such nonsense as having to give it your Facebook credentials to search groups even though you literally logged into Muse via Facebook.
Personal agents are not quite there yet. I suspect the reason is because even given a ton of your personal context, they don't have access to the most important and comprehensive personal context: what's in your brain.
For this reason, when you tell them to "proactively watch your finances" or "triage email" or "manage my calendar" they either screw things up, aren't proactive enough, or badger you about so many things that they are more of a hassle than a help.
Don't get me wrong, these things are insanely useful, but I don't yet buy the idea that they can just be let loose on all of your data and be helpful without massive tuning.
Nick Bonatsakis retweeted
This is why I don’t think consumer agents will work
The average person could care less about “being more productive”
"Most people aren't looking to save time, they're looking for ways to spend their time."
9 of 15 consumer internet categories have zero AI products in the Top 100. These built some of the biggest companies of the last two eras:
- Streaming
- Social
- Dating
- Gaming
- Travel
- Retail
- Finance
- Real estate
- Jobs
More charts in our Top 100 Consumer AI Apps breakdown: a16z.news/p/top-100-consumer…





















