newerror retweeted
The neocloud business model is the oldest and most time tested model in history. You buy assets, and you rent them out. Economics will normalize once supply and demand find equilibrium, but power constraints, accelerating compute demand, and existing shortage won't allow that to happen for some time imo. Cost of capital will come down over time with more supporting data. Just seems like a novel business rn, but its not.
Replying to @GDGInvests @CatSE___ApeX___
No. The V3 satellites from Starship Flight 14 are high-capacity broadband models (1 Tbps downlink each) for the main Starlink network. They lack direct-to-cell hardware.
SpaceX’s next-gen Starlink Mobile Gen 2 / V2 D2C satellites (Starship-only, much larger phased arrays for phone service) have not been produced or launched yet. V3 tech will support them, but the ones currently in orbit do not provide D2C.
RT @AbelAvellan: American operators hold ~1,000 MHz of low and mid band spectrum, tunable on the @AST_SpaceMobile network. With our curren…
I really like this article from @daniel_koss. Not because he was wrong, but because he shares the errors he made to the benefit of others who can learn from it. We all invested probably in some companies that didn't deliver. Let's learn from each other.
substack.com/inbox/post/2170…
newerror retweeted
Luis Ochoa is 17. He's also a U.S.
CITIZEN. This week, he was driving with another TEENAGE U.S. CITIZEN to submit paperwork to enlist in the MARINES when he was pulled over AND OUT OF HIS CAR by ICE🤬🤬
Thanktully, someone started recording.
This is the video. It's horrific. The boys are yelled at, BEATEN, and - when they repeatedly tell the agents THEY ARE CITIZENS — they're ignored.
According to Ochoa, one agent told him, "I don't give a damn. Your parents can't help you now."
Both teenagers were detained for approximately eight hours before being released.
They are minors.
They are U.S. citizens.
They were preparing to serve this country - yet their citizenship did not protect them from being beaten, pepper-sprayed, and detained by their own government.
This is what the Nazis did.
newerror retweeted
Yuri Ivanov, AI Infrastructure Advisor at $NBIS:
“We are a ‘start-up’ with BIG energy. We are NOT a Neocloud. We are a hyperscaler in the making that is purpose built for AI (not retrofitted).
We are a full stack solution for AI compute from end to end backed by 900+ of the worlds most talented engineers, a marketing team that has the skill to showcase the vision of our elite platform and of course… the most bad @$$ sales team in tech.”
Proper hyperscaler energy 🔥
newerror retweeted
Zuck is such a savage and one of the top 5 CEOs of all time.
Shots fired at OpenAI and Anthropic 😂
What a legend.
“Meta delayed shipping Muse for several months to focus on safety and security. We didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would. We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us. I'm proud of the security foundations we've built.”
Last month I wrote about how we can build a positive and safe future for everyone: meta.com/thefutureisforevery…
Every lab has the responsibility and incentive to move at the pace required to train its models safely, and the ability to take its own actions to ensure that happens.
The reality is:
- People won't want to use agents that are misaligned with them and that don't do what they ask, so labs have a strong natural incentive to make their models more aligned.
There is a lot of debate about slowing progress on capabilities until alignment catches up. My view is that trust and alignment are quickly becoming the most important capabilities that will differentiate agents and models. Any lab that doesn't focus on alignment will fall behind.
- Labs face significant liability if their models cause harm, so they have a strong incentive to prevent this as well.
Meta delayed shipping Muse for several months to focus on safety and security. We didn't call for everyone else to do this before we would. We just did it as part of our day-to-day work because it was clearly the right thing for people and for us. I'm proud of the security foundations we've built.
- Engaging independent evaluators and advisors is industry best practice. MSL already does this today in several areas because it helps produce better work. Other labs can just do this too. In general, it would be helpful for there to be a larger and more diverse ecosystem of evaluators.
- Committing the significant majority of compute towards serving people rather than racing towards recursive self-improvement is one of the best ways to ensure we develop this technology safely. Meta has made this commitment and other labs can do this as well.
I believe the key to building a positive future for everyone is maintaining the right balance of power. This is within our power to do.
newerror retweeted
I was encouraged this week to see the leaders of the frontier labs agree on the need for them to slow down the pace of AI development. Given the stakes, it’s a good and necessary first step.
But I’m even more encouraged by the growing recognition that how this powerful new technology develops should be at the center of our public debate.
I’ve been watching the progress on AI for over a decade now, and one thing that’s clear to me is that the potential impact of this technology is not overhyped. It’s also moving at lightning speed – and even faster than those who are engineering it can keep up with.
I’m not an AI accelerationist who believes it will lead to some techno-utopia, and I’m not a doomer who thinks it will inevitably lead to humanity’s destruction.
But whether this technology results in amazing breakthroughs in medicine, energy and education or unleashes huge economic disruptions, greater inequality, and potential catastrophe will depend on the choices that we make right now – choices that should be made not just by the companies involved, but by all of us.
newerror retweeted
JUST IN: Nebius contract value per megawatt jumped to over $40M this year as Chamath Palihapitiya says “they’re superb, but we need 50 of these guys, 100 of them, 1,000 of them.”
newerror retweeted
Dario has written that we need to “pace the frontier,” and Sam has agreed. People may be surprised by my response: go ahead.
You guys are the frontier. By any reasonable metric — market share, revenue growth, model capability — the two of you have a duopoly on frontier intelligence. You’ve also claimed the lead is widening because of recursive self-improvement.
I don’t see what you see in the lab. If the unreleased models are scary enough that you think you should slow down, I support your decision to be responsible.
But stop pretending you need anyone else’s permission. Stop pretending antitrust law has to be suspended so you can form a cartel. Stop pretending you need a regulatory approval process that supersedes product liability. Stop pretending METR is independent when it is intertwined with Anthropic’s investors and staff. Stop pretending you need those same evaluators to police competitors who aren’t even at the frontier.
Most of all, stop pretending the motivation to slow down is purely altruistic. You face massive product-liability exposure if your products enable a truly damaging cyberattack. The market already punishes models that behave in unpredictable or unauthorized ways. After the Hugging Face episode, it is simply good business for OpenAI and Anthropic to trade some raw power for reliability and predictability. Call it alignment if you want. It is also just giving customers what they want.
Pacing the frontier would also create breathing room for a more intelligent conversation about regulation than Bernie Sanders’ “shut it all down.” China is very unlikely to join a global agreement, as you know, and that has to be taken into account as well.
So go ahead and pace the frontier. You are the ones setting it. The easiest way not to build superintelligence is for you to agree not to build it. Demanding your preferred regulatory framework as the price of that will look like blackmail of the public and the political system. So just do it.
If you do, you’ll buy goodwill for the next conversation. If you don’t, we’ll know this was just another bid for regulatory capture — or an election-season psyop.
newerror retweeted
Researchers forced Claude, GPT, Gemini, and Kimi to play Civilization VI to completion.
What they discovered exposes a terrifying blind spot in modern AI.
Playing a massive 4X strategy game to the end requires something entirely different: long-haul execution. Juggling economics, science, military, and diplomacy across hundreds of turns.
The goal was to see how AI handles multi-step complexity.
Instead, they watched the models repeatedly implode due to two bizarre psychological flaws.
Flaw number one: Total situational blindness.
In one-third of the games the AIs lost, an enemy was actively marching toward an obvious victory right in front of them. The data was sitting right there. The model simply failed to look.
Flaw number two: Severe organizational ADHD.
The AIs were great at making grand strategic lists. They would meticulously write down: "Next step, build a city."
Then, 10 turns later, they completely forgot they wrote it and did nothing.
The researchers realized this isn't a lack of raw intelligence.
It’s an allocation failure.
We assume that if an AI can ace a math test, it can manage a complex, multi-day project.
It can't.
When tasks stretch across a long horizon, the model's internal attention drifts. It loses the thread of its own intentions. It drops long-term goals for immediate noise.
Everyone is racing to hand over complex workflows, financial portfolios, and autonomous operations to AI agents.
We think the bottleneck is making them smarter.
but no.
The bottleneck is making them remember what they were doing ten minutes ago.
newerror retweeted
$ASTS | @AST_SpaceMobile | J-LEO |J-BLUEBIRD-NGSO
Forget Starlink? Japan’s $1 Billion BlueBird Play Makes ASTS the National Satellite OS
Japan just handed a foreign satellite company something no G20 nation has ever offered before, and the telecom giant most investors are obsessing over right now has nothing to do with it.
Quick Read:
Japan's ~$1 billion non-dilutive government award to the Rakuten-ASTS venture positions AST SpaceMobile as a replicable satellite OS for sovereign nations.
ASTS holds $3.7 billion in pro forma liquidity, 60-plus MNO partners covering 3 billion subscribers, and analyst consensus targets $79 versus a ~$62 close.
The Sovereign Satellite Layer Nobody Is Pricing In
The smarter play sits at roughly $18.68 billion in market cap: AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS). While Starlink chases consumer broadband and Musk chases compute, ASTS is quietly becoming the operating system for direct-to-device cellular from space. Three points make the case.
Japan Just Blessed a National BlueBird Constellation
Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications preliminarily selected the Rakuten and AST joint venture for the J-LEO initiative, worth up to approximately $1 billion in non-dilutive, non-debt government capital. Separately, Japan filed an ITU application for a 136-satellite “J-BLUEBIRD-NGSO” architecture, with government subsidies covering as much as 50% of eligible costs and private matching pushing the program toward $2 billion. As President Scott Wisniewski put it, “I don’t know why a G20 country wouldn’t want this kind of capability given the price.” This is a template: governments finance and own AST-powered constellations while AST collects the platform economics.
BlueBird Constellation Is Actually Flying
ASTS now has 13 BlueBird spacecraft in orbit with roughly 20,000 sq ft of aperture hardware deployed, launched six spacecraft in 50 days, and is producing approximately six fully assembled satellites per month. BlueBirds 14 through 16 are ready to ship, BlueBirds 17 through 46 are in production, and the target is roughly 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027. Block 2 satellites are engineered for peak data rates approaching 200 Mbps. Commercial service can begin with as little as 45 satellites.
Fortress Balance Sheet and a 3-Billion-Subscriber Rolodex
Pro forma liquidity exceeds $3.70 billion following the July 2026 $1.150 billion convertible offering. Backlog sits at roughly $1.30 billion. Over 60 MNO partners cover 3+ billion subscribers, including Vodafone, Verizon, AT&T, Rakuten, and Deutsche Telekom, and $125 million in U.S. Government awards anchor a defense pipeline. Analysts carry an average target of $79.61 against a last close of $62.31.
What to Do
Stop rubbernecking the SpaceX ticker and start doing the work on ASTS before Japan converts a preliminary award into a signed contract.
247wallst.com/investing/2026…
newerror retweeted
Six a month. That is the rate Abel Avellan gave for micron production on the Q2 call, and he added that the line is currently on number forty six.
Set that against how the satellites actually leave the ground. Scott Wisniewski, same call: ten launches booked with two providers, at a cadence of roughly every month or two. Andy Johnson, same call: BlueBirds fourteen through sixteen ready to ship, seventeen through forty six in various stages of production and assembly.
I read those three sentences together and the shape of the company changed for me. The factory is producing faster than the manifest can consume. Hardware is stacking up waiting for a ride.
In this industry that is the rare direction, and I do not think people have absorbed what it means. The normal failure is a rocket sitting on a pad while the payload slips, quarter after quarter, because building the thing is hard. Here the building is solved. What is left is buying seats, and seats are a purchasing problem.
Purchasing problems get fixed with money and negotiation. Manufacturing problems get fixed with years, hiring and physics. I will take the first kind over the second every single time, and AST has the first kind.
Look at what the line is already carrying, too. Micron forty six is in production against a first constellation target of forty five in orbit by early 2027, and Avellan said mid band capability enters production later this year for launches in very early 2027. The factory has already moved past the satellites this deployment needs and started on the ones that come after it.
The capital intensity is visible and it is the price of running this way. Second quarter capital expenditure came in around six hundred and ten million, mostly launch payments and capitalised satellite materials. Building thirty spacecraft ahead of the launches that carry them is exactly what that number looks like from the outside. A company that expected trouble filling the manifest would not spend that far in front of it.
One thing I would genuinely like from the company, and it is the only piece missing to make this checkable: the per vehicle payload split across the booked manifest. Launch count is public, cadence is public, capacity per rocket is not. Has anyone assembled that table from the launch providers' side rather than AST's?
The bottleneck moved from the factory floor to the launch pad sometime in the last year. Most models still have it in the old place, and that is a pleasant kind of error to be on the right side of. $ASTS
newerror retweeted
What an Enterprise Buyer Thinks About Nebius
I recently had a really interesting conversation with an enterprise buyer and client of $NBIS, who leads data and AI platform architecture at a Fortune 500 medtech company and previously worked in a similar role at a Fortune 50 pharma.
I found his perspective valuable because it offers a useful way to differentiate between the so-called “neoclouds.”
Most of the market tends to focus on GPU supply, CapEx, power availability and how quickly companies like Nebius can bring new capacity online. From the enterprise-buyer side, though, he argued that one of the bigger constraints on AI adoption is often data gravity, not simply compute availability.
Large regulated enterprises can’t just move AI workloads wherever GPUs happen to be cheapest. Their data is already deeply embedded within governed environments involving lineage, security, compliance and existing infrastructure. Moving that data, or changing where workloads run, can therefore be much more complicated than it may appear from the outside.
I think this point is particularly relevant when comparing Nebius with other AI infrastructure providers. Over time, the competitive advantage may not simply come down to who can offer the cheapest GPUs, but who can bring scalable AI infrastructure closer to enterprise data while also meeting the security, governance and reliability requirements these customers need.
He also raised another point that I think could become increasingly important: AI inference spending inside enterprise platforms can grow much faster than many teams initially expect.
Tools like Snowflake Cortex and Databricks Mosaic make it extremely easy for companies to integrate AI into pipelines and applications. That simplicity is obviously part of their appeal, but it can also hide the underlying compute cost. Teams can scale usage quickly without necessarily seeing the full financial impact until much later.
As inference becomes embedded across more workflows, dashboards and internal applications, those costs can compound quietly and eventually create what he described as a potential “cost wall” for large enterprises.
That’s also where Token Factory becomes interesting.
There are already several platforms competing to make inference easier and cheaper, but Nebius controls much more of the underlying infrastructure stack. If Token Factory can leverage that integration to provide lower and more predictable inference costs at scale, it could become one of the more differentiated parts of the ecosystem.
In other words, Nebius’ long-term advantage extends well beyond simply owning GPUs. Its full-stack approach allows it to structurally lower inference costs while still meeting the reliability, security and enterprise requirements large customers need. That value proposition is increasingly valuable as AI workloads move from experimentation into large-scale production.
It’s also worth putting this in the context of where AI infrastructure demand is coming from today. So far, much of the attention has been on frontier AI labs, hyperscalers and AI-native startups, where access to compute, speed of deployment and raw performance often matter more than some of the enterprise considerations discussed above.
But over time, I think a much broader wave of demand will come from large enterprises moving AI workloads into production at scale. That’s when issues like the ones mentioned above should become increasingly important. In that sense, some of the factors that may not matter as much to the biggest buyers today could become much more relevant to the next phase of AI infrastructure demand.
From the enterprise side, the questions are increasingly becoming: Where does the data live? How difficult is it to move? How well does the infrastructure integrate with the existing enterprise stack? And what happens to inference costs once usage scales materially?
Those are very different competitive dynamics from the ones investors usually focus on when comparing neoclouds, and I think they’re worth paying attention to.
Credit to @AI_Investor_42, who kindly gave me permission to share some of his thoughts. For transparency, he is also long $NBIS.
newerror retweeted
$ASTS | Rakuten
Rakuten to Communicate via Satellite Within 2026 - 'Partner' US's AST to Compete with Starlink via Video Call
Rakuten Group is partnering with the US satellite communications company @AST_SpaceMobile to launch direct satellite and smartphone communication services within 2026. Other major telecom companies already offer satellite communication services for SpaceX, and Rakuten's camp is countering with video calls as a weapon.
Rakuten G and AST plan to establish a new company in Japan within 26 years to launch satellite communication services. Satellites are purchased and operated to be used for direct communication with smartphones.
楽天が26年内に衛星通信 スペースXに対抗
nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUC0…
米衛星通信のASTと組み、スマホの直接通信サービスを始めます。スターリンクではまだ対応していないビデオ通話を武器に、先行するスペースXを追います。
newerror retweeted
May be wrong, but I’m not sure Pezeshkian’s message is exactly what some sectors of Iran’s military establishment want to hear right now-at least not in those terms.
#Iran
$NBIS Asset-Lite Partner Network Is Expanding!
We all knew about $BRUN. There’s also Shadeform, Argentum AI, RunPod, and Data Section.
All 5 cloud infra providers are listed as external sub-processors in @nebius_tf’s legal documentation.
Asset-Lite Model will expand margins while requiring minimal balance sheet capital from $NBIS, starting in 2027.
$NBIS Update:
Pennsylvania Gigafactory Phase III zoning is OFFICIALLY APPROVED‼️
I called again and managed to get a hold of the Butler Township Supervisor Chairman Mr. Kessler.
We had a nice chat, and he confirmed tonight's ordinances passed 2 to 1.
Conversation notes 👇
1⃣ Selection Bias
Mr. Kessler told me that out of Butler Township’s ~5,000 residents, only 12 people showed up to tonight’s meeting.
Vineland has ~60,000 residents. Maybe 100 showed up to protest at the site amendment hearing.
Noise ≠ consensus. The loudest voices are almost never representative of the broader community.
Most residents are indifferent, supportive, or just not sufficiently opposed to bother showing up.
2⃣ Butler Township WANTS This Datacenter
Kessler told me Pennsylvania is “screwy” right now (with Shapiro), but his view is that datacenters are coming regardless.
Eventually, municipalities across the state will be asked to accommodate them. Butler Township decided to get ahead of that.
Two years ago, the township passed an ordinance designating where datacenters could be built, deliberately selecting an area along I-81 with substantial separation from nearby residents.
Rather than wait for the state to come in and say, “We’re putting a datacenter here,” Butler wanted to already be able to say:
“We have a spot.”
3⃣ Noise Study
Before the vote, Butler Township commissioned an independent noise study to model the datacenter under a range of operating conditions.
Kessler said the analysis incorporated roughly 15 years of local temperature data, because the cooling equipment becomes louder as temperatures rise.
He noted that temperatures high enough to push the facility toward its loudest operating conditions occurred only three times over that 15-year period.
The study modeled the facility at or near full cooling load during extreme heat, including temperatures approaching the local historical high of roughly 101.7°F.
It also modeled how noise attenuates with distance from the site. Kessler said the nearest property owner is approximately 3,500 feet away, and cited modeled levels falling to roughly 52 dBA during daytime, and into the mid-20 dBA range at night farther from the facility.
The study gave the board enough comfort to tighten the allowable noise limit from 75 dBA to 65 dBA.































