My piece for the @Telegraph telegraph.co.uk/business/202…

My @thetimes piece. Dollar devaluation and dominance are not mutually exclusive goals, but once you start to turn sentiment against your own currency you need to be careful. The dollar’s decline looks likely to continue. Its dominance may take time to erode as there are no immediate challengers to supplant it, but the likelihood is that we are in the early stages of a new, multi-polar currency system

Geneva will be the focus this weekend as the first high-level formal meeting between the US and China will take place since their tariff war began (1/2) My piece in @Telegraph 👇 telegraph.co.uk/business/202…

Today’s trade deal with the US is good news for the UK. Its scale is unclear but the expectation is that this will be more than a framework deal and thus should be a stepping stone to future deeper trade ties. Importantly is how much it mitigates the impact of tariffs, plus whether the digital services tax goes and how agricultural trade is resolved. We already have deals with a number of US states and have a strong trade performance with the US and this deal should build on this. With two-thirds of UK trade with the US in services and tariff-free, let’s see what progress there is on non-tariff barriers. Signing a trade deal with the US on the back of a trade deal with India is good news. It highlights the UK‘s ability, now it is outside the customs union, to be able to agree mutually beneficial trade deals with leading partners. From a wider market perspective this US-UK trade deal may not resolve concerns about how many reciprocal tariff deals can be in place with other countries before the 90 day tariff pause is up.

Clearly positive news that the UK and India have concluded FTA negotiations. While there will be some trade-offs, as in any negotiation, and discussions on the Bilateral Investment Treaty are ongoing, the UK is repositioning itself in the changing world economy where future growth lies in the Indo-Pacific. India’s economy will be bigger than the whole of Western Europe within the coming decades. There is huge upside potential as India is the UK’s 11th largest trading partner and accounts for 2.4% of total UK trade.

Great to join @KallumPickering - Chief Economist, Peel Hunt - on his excellent Macro Minds podcast, where we discuss the economic and policy outlook for China. Listen here👇 open.spotify.com/episode/0Rs…

My column in @thetimes 👇on the sluggish global economy that is not resilient enough to cope with the tariff shock, and the policy levers the UK can pull. Rates down to 3.5%. Borrow, don’t raise taxes. Trade deals. Remain outside the SM & CU. Industrial policies & energy addition. In an uncertain word, policy needs to control the controllables and provide a credible stimulus that lowers costs and boosts the domestic economy thetimes.com/business-money/…

I was delighted to appear on the @BBCr4today monthly debate: ‘Is globalisation dead?’ Globalisation is being replaced by fragmentation, free trade by protectionism and national security is now interwoven into economic policy thinking bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002b6…

Good to join @CGTNOfficial to discuss China’s data and its response to tariffs. For the second successive quarter growth was 5.4% and higher than expected, with retail sales and output rising sharply in March. But urban unemployment is up, at 5.3% in Q1 vs 5% in Q4 and output rose ahead of the tariff announcement. Domestic demand lacks momentum and policy stimulus is ahead. Watch below 👇 youtube.com/watch?v=xKgPmBHx…

Quoted in the @Telegraph telegraph.co.uk/business/202…

Yesterday on @BBCPM with @EvanHD I highlighted the sell-off in bonds, triggered by a combination of factors: (i) liquidity being the most important & the need for collateral (as some funds covered an unwinding of their basis trade, a crowded trade for some put on in predictable times); (ii) fear of foreign selling (more a perceived risk with 1/4 of US bonds held globally); (iii) also some cited inflation worries (although less of a driver yesterday with oil prices off & little change in break-even inflation rates but it was/is a worry given the price impact of tariffs); (iv) worryingly the sell-off in bonds was despite weak equities and reflected a reassessment of the sell-haven status of bonds and of US assets. The latter also included a softer dollar, but we have had not yet seen active selling of US assets. Instead I would call it 'passive diversification', with international investors putting less net new income into dollars & US assets. Listen back (36:00-43:08 minutes) bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0029q…

Great to lead on @NickFerrariLBC today discussing tariffs. The direct impact on the UK will be limited. Two-thirds of our exports to the US are in services, which are not impacted by tariffs, while UK goods exports are hit by the minimum new 10% baseline tariff and we fare better than others. But as a large open economy, there could be a significant impact if a global trade war materialises

The Chancellor has made herself a prisoner of her own self-imposed fiscal rules and now she is a hostage to fortune. The new fiscal headroom remains small and just a slight deterioration in economic prospects will leave the Chancellor having to revise her plans again. This could happen as early as the Budget this October, with further pressure to then curb spending, raise taxes and borrow more. netwealth.com/resources/our-…

Quoted in today's @guardian theguardian.com/uk-news/2025…

Quoted in @Newsweek newsweek.com/donald-trump-ta…