Celestino Neto

BEYOND THE CHART — TRADING JOURNAL NOVEMBER 5, 2026 THE TRADE I DIDN'T TAKE Sometimes the best position is no position at all. Today, I didn't make any money in the market. I didn't lose any either. And considering what happened to the Nasdaq, staying out may have been my most important decision of the day. A DAY ON THE SIDELINES I had to attend a meeting this morning. I missed the market open and didn't place a single trade. When I got home around 12:30 p.m. Brasília time, I decided to take a look at the Nasdaq. From what I observed, the market had already dropped more than 1,000 points. Market structure looked completely different from what I normally rely on to identify my entries. Price had moved far beyond the areas I consider important for my trading strategy. I looked at the chart and thought: "This market is completely out of control today. I'm staying out." And that's exactly what I did. WHAT WAS HAPPENING ON WALL STREET? The U.S. stock market was experiencing a massive selloff in technology stocks. Semiconductor companies were under intense selling pressure as investors reassessed the billions of dollars being invested in artificial intelligence and data centers. Concerns about potential restrictions on the expansion of this infrastructure following the U.S. elections contributed to deteriorating market sentiment. Volatility surged. Funds and institutional investors reduced their risk exposure. The Nasdaq Composite finished the session down approximately 5.5%. And the move became even more extraordinary when I checked the market again toward the end of the day. In the futures contract I follow, the decline I was observing was approaching 2,000 points. THE TEMPTATION TO JUMP IN It's easy to look at a chart after a massive decline and think: "If only I had shorted it..." But there's a trap hidden in that thought. When we look at a move after it has already happened, everything seems obvious. The problem is that we don't trade the past. We trade a moving market without knowing where it will go next. And today, I hadn't witnessed the development of that market structure. I hadn't identified an entry that met the conditions I normally require. Going short simply because the market was collapsing would have meant chasing price. Going long simply because the market had already fallen so far would have meant trying to predict the bottom. Neither decision was part of my trading plan. MY POST-MARKET SELF-ASSESSMENT Yesterday, I participated in a major market reversal. Today, I stayed completely out. Two consecutive days of extraordinary volatility. Two different decisions. And one responsibility that never changes: Protecting my capital. I can't claim that staying out was the only correct decision. Traders who identified valid setups may have successfully capitalized on the downtrend. But for me, at that moment, there was no sufficiently clear opportunity within my trading framework. My decision not to enter was consistent with the information I had available. And that matters more than the profits I might have made. TOMORROW: NONFARM PAYROLLS AT 8:30 A.M. ET Tomorrow, Friday, November 6, the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time — 10:30 a.m. Brasília time. After two days of extraordinary Nasdaq price movements, another potentially market-moving event is approaching. The employment report can shift interest rate expectations, influence U.S. Treasury yields, and trigger rapid adjustments in institutional positioning. My plan for tomorrow is already set: I won't try to predict the numbers. I'll begin analyzing the market only after the report is released. I want to observe how price reacts to the data, where liquidity begins to concentrate, and whether a clear trading structure starts to develop. I have no intention of trading simply because the market is moving. I want to identify an opportunity that makes sense within my strategy. The NFP numbers provide information. The market's reaction is what I intend to analyze. If there's no confirmation, I'll stay on the sidelines. THE LESSON OF THE DAY The market doesn't require my participation every single day. I don't need to trade every trend. I don't need to capture every move. And I don't need to turn a missed opportunity into an impulsive trade. STAYING OUT IS ALSO A TRADING DECISION. Here's how I finished today: 0 trades. $0 profit. $0 loss. 100% of my trading capital preserved throughout the session. It wasn't a day of financial gains. It was a day when I respected my entry criteria. And for a trader pursuing consistency, that's worth documenting too. A QUESTION FOR YOU When the market has already moved hundreds of points without you, what's harder? Accepting that you missed the move, or resisting the temptation to chase it? And with tomorrow's NFP release approaching, would you rather anticipate the move or wait for the market to reveal its direction? — BEYOND THE CHART | TRADING JOURNAL #Nasdaq #NQ #MNQ #TradingJournal #MarketStructure #RiskManagement #TradingDiscipline #NFP