He/him. Classical criminologist. Author: https://xitter.cf/t.co/dMm4E2QTLO. Read how good policing stops crime here: https://xitter.cf/t.co/Ll45m96lYZ

Lincoln, England
Joined April 2014
Neoliberalism and social justice. My talk and Q&A at the LSE: youtube.com/watch?v=0HJGsooc…
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The opposite is true: Macron identified France’s structural problems years ago. He proposed pension reforms in 2019 and 2023. Both faced massive protests. The 2023 reform was later suspended. Now those who blocked reforms are back on the streets, protesting the consequences.
Macron will go down in history as one of France’s worst presidents. He has pushed a once-great nation to the brink of economic, demographic, and social ruin. Had he spent his nine years in power focusing less on “Palestine” and more on Putin and the putains de salauds threatening France from within, his country would be far better off.
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Nick Cowen retweeted
Billions of pounds lost on a single project because we can’t connect it to the grid for half a decade and have destroyed our capacity to generate reliable electricity.
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Jensen Huang has a message for the UK
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Nick Cowen retweeted
I bust some myths about water and data centres.
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Nick Cowen retweeted
The Transport Committee of the London Assembly doesn’t think that driverless vehicles are safe for London’s streets. But the actual evidence of driverless cars being deployed in the US is that they are significantly safer?
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Nick Cowen retweeted
China has become the most important manufacturing economy in the world because it is a continent-sized Silicon Valley. worksinprogress.co/issue/chi… Every Chinese city govt acts as a VC firm trying to create clusters in its region, because it has both the means and incentive to do so. Local govts generate their revenues, nearly all of which they keep, from selling leases on land and from stakes they have taken in local companies, which together allow them to capture economic spillovers. Chinese officials have their entire careers graded and determined by how much growth they have been able to create in the areas they run. Career progression is determined according to a great tournament that pits official against official and gives promotions to whoever has grown their region the most. If they don’t reach a certain stage by a certain age they are blocked from promotion forever. This is why so many economic clusters have centred on Chinese cities, for high- and low-tech products alike. Shaodong makes 70% of the entire world's cigarette lighters; Danyang makes half of the world's spectacle lenses; Zheng'an makes 1/7 of the world's guitars; Datang a third of its socks. Whereas many of the West’s most important city governments capture only a small amount of the spillovers from successful clusters, and thus have very little reason to foster them, in China, they get a huge amount of the upside and can re-invest it in further growth. This also gives them a great incentive to solve problems for companies, like when Shanghai's govt got Tesla's factory there built even faster than Elon himself had expected (and twice as fast as his Fremont, CA factory). But this is not some exotic 'oriental' innovation – this is how America used to do things when it grew fastest, in the 1950s, 1960s, and early 1970s. Catching up with China on advanced manufacturing does not require a wise and strategic approach, let alone authoritarianism or the end of democracy. It may just mean fixing city government. This is why I care so much about local in Britain and America: if we give our own local governments the same incentives and means to grow, the crazily dysfunctional entities we have become used to may be transformed into corporation-like bodies that are ruthlessly focused on making their cities rich, safe and prosperous. Read more in Works in Progress worksinprogress.co/issue/chi…
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Nick Cowen retweeted
NEW: How the push to ban data centre construction in Britain is based on sloppy research. One paper widely cited in the media and by the Green Party contains multiple howlers: - It claims that a single data centre will be responsible for 8% of the East of England's water shortfall. This is wrong by a factor of almost 100. - It suggests data centres are to blame for England's predicted 5bn litre daily water shortfall. Yet under the most water-hungry assumptions, new data centres would account for less than 3% of it. Under more realistic assumptions, it's just 0.5%. - It compares global AI water withdrawals with British household water consumption. But these are completely different things. Most withdrawn water is returned to its source. The comparison exaggerates AI's water footprint by around ten times. - It repeatedly uses worst-case estimates of data centre water consumption, ignoring that many data centres use little or no water for cooling. One of its sources is literally titled Overestimating AI's water footprint. The real cause of Britain's water shortages isn't data centres. It's our failure to build reservoirs. samdumitriu.com/p/will-data-…
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Nick Cowen retweeted
I made an unsettling discovery in my undergraduate class on financial planning last week. While explaining mortgages, I asked my 38 students this question: if you buy a $400,000 house and pay 20% in cash towards the purchase, what will be the amount that you finance? Not a single student could tell me the answer. Despite the fact that they are all juniors and seniors majoring in business. I added more questions: what is 30 percent of 80? 60 percent of 90? They didn’t know. The closest they got was when one student said, in response to my query of “40% of 70”, that “I know it’s 4 times 7 but I don’t remember what that is.” Another student helpfully added, “28.” They explained to me why they couldn’t answer these math questions: they were never taught multiplication tables, percentages or fractions during their K-12 schooling. Instead, they were taught how to use a calculator. Without one, they are not able to do basic arithmetic. I later asked the dean about this, and he lamented that this isn’t a thing just for our university’s students; it’s a thing for their entire generation, nationwide. When I was in K-12, the fierce debate among parents and educators was whether to allow calculators in class. The calculators won. Today, the debate is about AI. And like before, the tech will win. But will that truly be a victory? Rowan University #college #math #loans #CFP #financialplanning
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Book your open day place here! lincoln.ac.uk/studywithus/op…
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BREAKING: Iran is moving to force Google, Meta, Microsoft and Amazon to obtain passage permits, undergo technical inspections and pay sovereignty fees for the undersea internet cables running through its territorial waters in the Strait of Hormuz, per Tasnim. At least two major cable systems, FALCON and Gulf Bridge International, run directly through Iranian territorial waters in the Strait. Iran says their physical placement on Iran's seabed creates a legal basis to apply its own regulations, requiring the owning companies to meet environmental and seabed monitoring standards and to pay for Iranian supervisory services. More than 99% of international data traffic travels through undersea cables. The move comes as Iran said yesterday that if the war restarts, the region's undersea cables, data centers and AI facilities "will be destroyed," putting their total value at more than $2 trillion.
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What's the cause of the housing crisis: high migration or low housebuilding? The UK has the second fewest homes per 1,000 of any Western European country and is now 6.9 million homes short of the average. Despite building 1.1 million homes between 2020 and 2025, England's homes per 1,000 people actually decreased, which indicates a housing shortage that is getting worse due to record migration. Had net migration stayed in the tens of thousands since 2020, house prices would be roughly £15,270 lower in England. And if net migration had been kept to 100,000 a year since 1997, about a third of that 6.9 million home shortage would disappear. But high migration is only one side of the story. Our chronic failure to build enough homes explains the rest. Since 1982, England has built on average only 178,000 homes a year. If England had just matched France's building rates since the 1980s, half of the housing shortage would have been eliminated. France has consistently built homes faster than its population grows, while England has stagnated since the mid-2000s. Combining building an achievable number of homes with sustainable migration levels would have effectively closed most of the housing shortage. You can read the full briefing here: cps.org.uk/research/the-uks-…
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The great British historian Chris Wickham passed away this week. In April 2017, I published (in Spanish) a review of his book Medieval Europe, titled “The Middle Ages: Fiscal Capacity, State Strength, and Economic Growth.” In his memory, I reproduce the same review but translated into English. This past week, later than I should have, I finished Chris Wickham’s Medieval Europe. Readers of this blog may remember that I have occasionally mentioned my admiration for an earlier work of Wickham’s, Framing the Early Middle Ages, and for his incredible ability to synthesize our knowledge of the early Middle Ages in Europe and the Mediterranean world, both conceptually and geographically. Since that monograph, I have regularly worked my way through every new book by Wickham, and it has always been an experience with an extraordinary intellectual payoff. Medieval Europe is no exception. The amount of material condensed into 352 pages is so extraordinary that, merely to absorb even a minimal amount of its detail, I have had to let a few other obligations slide over the last few days. The end result has led me, almost by necessity, to write this post. Before continuing, however, I should warn our readers. Medieval Europe is an uncompromising academic monograph. The prose is clear and, on many occasions, brilliant in its precision, but this is not a book to take to the beach for a little light entertainment that requires no thought. Wickham is not going to tell you about Eleanor of Aquitaine’s love affairs. He is going to tell you how the fiscal capacity of the Anglo-Saxon kingdoms before the Norman conquest of England in 1066 would prove crucial to the evolution of the political economy of northern Europe in the centuries to come. This is not a world of lances and tournaments; it is a world of productive systems and administrative structures. But even within contemporary historiography, questions of representation and understanding, the construction of mentalities, or exercises in collective memory play, for Wickham, a secondary role compared with modeling the material foundations of a society. Perhaps it could hardly be otherwise, since Wickham has never hidden his conviction about the usefulness of the more classical Marxist historiographical tradition and its insistence on the primacy—though not the exclusivity or determinism—of material explanations, especially when compared with the favorite themes of the cultural turn. Paradoxically, this is a point of contact between that Marxist tradition and mainstream economists like me, who also assign a place of preeminence to factors such as technology and the institutions it creates in the development of societies (this is an argument I developed more calmly in a post on G. A. Cohen many years ago). As a friend of mine says, ironically but with some truth, we neoclassical economists are right-wing Marxists. And as such, we have much to learn from Wickham’s work. In particular, there is the central role played by fiscal structures in political forms and in their evolution over time. For Wickham, it is above all the collapse of the fiscal capacity once enjoyed by the old Roman Empire in the West that explains the weakness of its successor states during the first centuries of the Middle Ages. Without fiscal capacity, one cannot finance a standing army or an efficient administration; and without these two instruments of power, political structures eventually fracture. The only way to finance military activity without taxes on land or on the (minimal) trade that existed is to grant land to nobles and knights in exchange for military service. Although the feudal revolution of the eleventh century (which, despite recent historiographical advances and the qualifications they have introduced into older conceptions, Wickham still regards as a useful interpretive framework) was not inevitable, it was a very likely consequence of early medieval land politics. As Wickham reminds us, Marc Bloch was the author who most eloquently explained that this policy of financing states by handing land to elites is inherently unstable: the more land a sovereign grants in order to build a winning coalition among the elites, the less land remains to distribute as future payments and, therefore, the more difficult it becomes to maintain the stability of the coalition. To illustrate the power of this argument, Wickham recounts what happens in those parts of the Roman Empire where fiscal capacity does not collapse and which today we anachronistically call the Byzantine Empire (its inhabitants always called themselves Rhōmaîoi, or Romans in Greek). The continuities in political, economic, and ideological structures with late antiquity are far stronger than in the West and, with them, the future of these societies would be very different. In two chapters central to the book’s argument (3: “Crisis and Transformation in the East, 500–850” and 9: “1204: The Failure of Alternatives”), Wickham insists on the crucial need to understand Byzantium and its successor states (the caliphates and the Ottoman Empire) in order to understand what happens in western and northern Europe. Counterintuitively, there is much more that is “Roman” in the domains of Mehmed II than in Tudor England, Valois France, or Trastámara Castile. To reinforce this idea, the book goes on to explain how only the slow and gradual reconstruction of fiscal capacity makes possible the emergence of organizations such as the kingdoms of England, France, and Castile that I mentioned in the previous paragraph and that would shape the centuries to come. But these kingdoms are very different creatures from Rome, Byzantium, or even the Merovingian and Ottonian states. They are experiments in government in which the consent of an important part of society (lords, urban elites, ecclesiastical potentates, and often relatively modest landowners) is indispensable to the exercise of fiscal power. And this consent would crystallize, to a large extent, through parliaments. These parliaments are an institution without parallel anywhere else in the world. They probably appear first in Spain, with the Cortes of Alfonso IX of León in 1188, as a combination of monarchical weakness and fiscal necessity. Their key feature, which Wickham perhaps does not emphasize enough, is their own legal personality. This legal form—so important in a Europe rediscovering classical Roman law as a central organizational technology—makes them radically different, in both their legitimacy and their persistence over time, from the old Germanic assemblies so common in Merovingian Europe and from the royal councils that rulers have had throughout history. The conflicts between kings and parliaments would become a fundamental axis of European history until the ultimate victory of the latter, sometimes concealed beneath other garb, centuries later. But already in the thirteenth century we see, especially in England, the idea that the oligarchy is fundamentally involved as a co-director of public life, in forms, practices, and understandings that do not exist in the Islamic world, India, or China in the same centuries. The reorganization of state power during the twelfth and thirteenth centuries thus appears not in opposition to the cellular structure of European politics, but as a counterweight to it. More powerful states sharpen the need of lords, cities, the Church, and even peasants to defend their own spheres of action, thereby creating a social dynamism whose long-run consequences would be incalculable (however often Wickham repeats, somewhat half-heartedly, that he does not want to cross the Rubicon into such a triumphalist interpretation). The best example of this idea is England. It is no accident that England is probably the best-organized state in medieval Western Europe (the famous 14.5 kilograms of wax used every week to seal letters in the English chancery in the mid-thirteenth century) and, at the same time, the state in which a relatively broad oligarchy has most systematically penetrated the co-direction of public affairs. Parliament and the Common Law—as Dicey explained to us decades ago—popular sovereignty (or, at this point, elite sovereignty) in Parliament and the effective rule of law embodied in the Common Law do not contradict one another, as superficial commentators so often claim; they reinforce one another. There is no Henry III without Henry II, numerically or conceptually. But—and this is a road Wickham does not want to travel either, though I am quite willing to explore it—it is also no accident that England is the birthplace of the Industrial Revolution. If there is one thing we have learned from the recent and vibrant literature on state capacity, it is that state power and markets are not opposites in the process of economic growth (an interesting and comprehensive survey of the literature appears here, by Noel Johnson and @MarkKoyama; Mark, incidentally, is very critical here of some of Wickham’s interpretations of the economic evolution of late antiquity). Far from being substitutes, as is too often argued in a thoroughly ahistorical way from both sides of the political debate, states and markets complement one another, sometimes in subtle ways. Growth emerges when states can provide defense against society’s external and internal enemies; when states ensure that the rule of law is supreme (including, in a substantive conception of the rule of law, respect for property rights); when states create an integrated internal market; when states build infrastructure (or make its construction possible); when states provide education (or ensure its provision); when states create the conditions under which financial markets can function. All of this costs money—a lot of it. In eighteenth-century England, perhaps around 10 percentage points of GDP in tax revenue. Today, at least 20; and if we include social transfers, which redistribute risks that markets often cannot insure because of asymmetric information and without which society could not function properly, probably 30 or 35 points. England does not grow in the eighteenth century because property rights were particularly well protected. It grows because, compared with France, the Parliament born of the Glorious Revolution of 1688 can create the Bank of England, finance the battle fleet, impose land enclosures, or force the construction of railways against the opposition of localities that the railways will drag out of their backwardness. The road to Manchester’s cotton mills runs through the hills of Blenheim: there is no James Watt without a John Churchill. At the same time, the historical evidence is crystal clear that when states try not to complement markets but to replace them, the result is disastrous. Strong states create internal markets in which automobiles can be sold; substitutionist states want to build automobiles themselves. Worse, by trying to do what they cannot do well, far from strengthening state power, they paralyze it through constant struggles among dozens of pressure groups over the rents created by state activity. We need only look at the modern states of Europe. Is Spain a strong state? It is certainly a large state, but not one capable of stopping constant regulatory capture, ensuring the unity of its internal market, or providing a high-quality education. Robust property rights require a powerful power of eminent domain, but a powerful power of eminent domain can succeed only alongside robust property rights. At present, we have neither. I imagine these are not the conclusions Wickham himself would draw from his book, and I am almost certain he would object to most of my inferences. My response, however, is that when one writes a book as magnificent as this one, one must be aware that the text takes on a life of its own, and that the conceptual avenues, interpretive frameworks, and cognitive structures of reference it reveals can take the reader to unexpected places. We are slaves to our own logics.
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Useful metric: bond yields minus nominal growth. On this metric, the US comes apart more from European countries like France, Italy, and Britain than recent reporting may have suggested.
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Nick Cowen retweeted
From 2028, Britain will have 18 mayoral authorities but mayors still lack key powers for building public infrastructure like trams & roads. 🚨 Today @BritishProgress and @ThinkLabour publish our paper with @AnyaM8_, @1jamesHowat and @johnrmyers on the FOUR powers mayors need 🧵
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Nick Cowen retweeted
This is why we can’t get anything done. The average age a young person buys their first home is 34. Natural England is blocking new homes from being built NEXT to a train station. Every 30 minutes a train leaves for Central London in Woldingham. You might be thinking “don’t new planning rules allow housebuilding within 500 metres of a train station?” You are *supposed* to be correct. But… Natural England hates giving young people a shot in life. So, they’ve come up with a loophole. They are now designating areas outside train stations as having “outstanding natural beauty" Now NO homes can be built here. We could abolish Natural England tomorrow and be done with this for GOOD. So, do you agree?
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Have been sent an astonishing letter from the Met, excoriating in its view of the Early Release Scheme introduced this year by the Government. It highlights the case of a prolific shoplifter & sex offender, released on Thursday, who seems to have gone directly on a crime spree.
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Challenger broke apart at 11:39 a.m. on Jan. 28, 1986. Almost immediately, the stock market singled out Morton Thiokol. How?
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