Focused on macroeconomic policy. I unpack inflation, public finances, & central bank decisions for the Maldives. Data-driven economic storytelling @Dhauru
Male' . Maldives
Joined May 2009
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Look at this chart. The monthly raise alone for the Majlis Speaker is higher than the entire monthly salary of a full-time island school teacher or a public sector nurse. Plus, a minister's +17,000 MVR car allowance bump is nearly 2.5x the civil service average salary. Read more: dhauru.com/post/report/46618
In an ideal situation, adjusting state employees' salaries for inflation is a positive step that should be done at regular intervals with proper budget impact assessments. But now is not the time. We are currently facing a budget deficit that is far worse than forecasted. And also the salary disparity between average Maldivian workers & politicians is already wide, & this adjustment will only widen it further. First, we need to address the underlying economic factors to narrow this gap and find ways to increase the take-home pay of average Maldivians. These charts tell us why this decision is wrong: dhauru.com/post/report/46618
Naif retweeted
ބޮޑެތި އުޅަނދުތަކުގެ ބްލައިންޑް ސްޕޮޓްތަކަށް ސަމާލުވަމާ!
މަގުމައްޗަކީ އެންމެނަށް ރައްކާތެރި ތަނަކަށް ހަދަމާ!
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Govt is pointing fingers at the tourism sector for the USD crisis, while simultaneously hitting them with a 40% exchange mandate & the new OTA tax. We break down the reality of this blame game with Resort Life Maldives founder Shaaz Waleed @Jangaleesoru on this week’s #EhbasveDhebasvamaa
First, the govt blames tourism businesses for the USD shortage. Now, they are squeezing them with the new OTA tax on Booking.com and Agoda.
Is the state suffocating the industry? Watch Resort Life Maldives founder Mohamed Shaaz Waleed break down the reality on #EhbasveDhebasvamaa Ep.36
MVR is tumbling as the black market dollar rate crosses a record 22MVR. Political noise is high, but what are the actual economic drivers behind this rapid surge?
I believe these are the main reasons:
1️⃣ Indirect money printing (via Pension Fund)
2️⃣ BML's investment scheme drying up informal market dollars
3️⃣ High govt spending increasing MVR in circulation and reliance to the domestic debt
4️⃣ $1B debt repayment clashing with a drop in tourism revenue
Read the full breakdown here: dhauru.com/post/business/455…
Censoring black market exchange rates doesn't create USD. From Venezuela to Nigeria, history shows that suppressing the benchmark only pushes price discovery underground.
Parallel markets are a symptom, not the disease. Read the full article: dhauru.com/post/business/455…
A parallel FX market isn't the problem itself, it's a symptom of structural imbalances in our financial system.
Naif retweeted
Joint Statement by MJA & @TransparencyMV: We strongly condemn the Public Accounts Committee’s amendment to the Foreign Exchange Bill, which bans media from reporting parallel market FX rates. We urge Parliament to reject the bill.
Reporting the realities of the parallel FX market isn't "market manipulation"; it's holding policymakers accountable and stating the economic facts. Banning media from reporting black market dollar rates is outright censorship. Parliament must reject this unconsulted amendment to the Foreign Exchange Bill.
Naif retweeted
Björn Again akee ABBA ge enmme mashooru tribute band. E show manaa kurevigen, music manaa kurevigen nuvaane. Raajjeyge zuvaanun edhey kankan mi Raajjeygai hingaan jeyheyne. Mi ee vaki baehge Raajje eh noon, hurihaa Dhivehige Raajje.
Naif retweeted
I went to China with the questions I didn’t have answers to. Are tariffs ever an answer? Why does China keep buying American treasuries? Is the world turning left again? So I sat down with two economists who’ve spent their careers on exactly this: Matthew Klein, co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars, and Ning Zhu, the professor who predicted China’s housing crash.
Coming soon…
Naif retweeted
"Who says spreading your wings means flying high? Flying low is also flying."
These memorable words come from "Low Flight", the poetry collection by Wang Jibing, a food delivery rider who has won the 9th Lu Xun Literature Prize, one of China's highest literary honors. Born into a poor family, Wang left school at a young age and worked a series of jobs before becoming a delivery rider, finding inspiration for his poetry in the lives of ordinary people.
Published in 2024, "Low Flight" captures the hopes, struggles and resilience of delivery riders and other grassroots workers. Wang continues to deliver meals while writing, believing that an ordinary life offers the richest stories. His journey shows that literature belongs not only to professional writers, but also to those who live and work among the people.
Naif retweeted
My deepest condolences to you and your family. He was a man of great vision, remarkable ideas, and dedicated service.
May Allah (SWT) forgive his shortcomings, bless his soul, and grant him the highest place in Jannathul Firdhaus. Ameen.
Behind every tragic breaking news story is a family whose world has just stopped. When we report or share news or content about the deceased, we must prioritize their dignity & respect the families' grief over being the first to break the story. Empathy first, always.
Development Banks do not use retail deposits as a source of funding; they need long-term capital, syndicated loans and international lines of credit. Maybe the present govt was too optimistic in setting this up. The biggest challenge for us is to find the right balance between ambition and reality with the forex constraints and limited access to the market.
My latest on the DBM failure: dhauru.com/post/report/44842
We are quietly walking into a demographic collapse. We are heading toward a super-aged society & long-term economic stagnation. It’s time we need to design economic policies that encourage couples to have more children.
Read my latest article: asknaif.com/p/maldives-needs…
EhbasveDhebasvamaa Ep29 on aging population & care economy.
#EhbasveDhebasvamaa Ep29 | UNFPA Maldives Head of Office, Shadiya Ibrahim, breaks down our shifting demographics, the looming fiscal strain, and the unspoken "care economy." Watch the full episode now:
Maldives fertility rates are at 1.5. Our couples need to have more babies. It is the only way we can avert economic stagnation. We need to consider demographic decline an existential threat to our nationality. Maybe child tax credits, grants & medals for having more babies???
Why are young Maldivians delaying starting families? And are we ready for a rapidly aging population?
Ahead of World Population Day, Ep28 of #EhbasveDhebasvamaa dives into our shifting demographics, the unspoken "care economy," and why state policies must urgently adapt.
We sit down with UNFPA Maldives Head of Office, Shadiya Ibrahim, to unpack the reality of our future.
🎬 Full episode drops TOMORROW at 13:30
My Substack has been collecting a bit of dust lately. The hardest thing to maintain amid life and work is consistency. Recently, as I rode a train south from Beijing, I finished reading Haruki Murakami’s What I Talk About When I Talk About Running. asknaif.com/p/the-rhythm-of-…
