Cowboy_

$BTC There is a very high probability Bitcoin will make it to range highs this week (±107k) and probably beyond. First: the weekly low (P1) is on Monday and the weekly high (P2) is on Thursday. Since only 9% of weeks have a P1 on Thursday or later, there is a 91% chance the Monday low will hold. This is because in order for the weekly high to become P1, price needs to take out the weekly low. Knowing that the Monday low will very likely hold, we can look at the probability of the current weekly high holding. The move between the Weekly Low and Weekly High is currently 8.2%, and 82.6% of bullish weeks see a bigger move between the weekly low and weekly high. So in short: - There is a 91% chance the Monday low holds - There is a 82.6% chance to go higher if the Monday low holds Data based on the last 6 years of Price Action.

$BTC ✅ Deviation above the Christmas range ✅ 90k target reached ✅ Bounce back into the range ❓ 1-2 weeks below 90k before continuation So far the price has followed the plan from last week nicely, and now the question is whether the plan's final stage will also be completed: 1-2 weeks below 90k. In case you viewed yesterday's live stream, I mentioned that one of the scenarios I was looking at was a fake reclaim of the range followed by a move back down. So the question now is: is the current bounce the fake reclaim or has it bounced too far? Let's dive into it. This is the part where I like to gravitate to my best friend in trading: statistics. Are there any statistics that can tell us a thing or two about what is likely? Well yes there is. First of all, we have weekly low on Monday and a weekly high on Tuesday. That means the weekly low is P1 and the weekly high is P2. In the last 5 years, 61.7% of weeks had a weekly P1 on Monday. That means that 38.4% of weeks had a weekly P1 on any other day. In simplest translation, that means that there is now a moderately higher probability for the Monday low to hold because taking out the Monday low would mean there is a Tuesday P1. Specifically: there is a 61.7% chance of the Monday low to hold and a 38.4% chance of it to break purely based on these statistics alone. Downside would have been more probable if the Monday high was not taken out. But you also have to take context into account. The low was put in at the HTF range low, which in my opinion makes it stronger. --- Then on to the more qualitative stuff. Besides the higher timeframe mentioned, price has also reclaimed the lower timeframe Christmas range We had a deviation from the low followed by a strong reclaim. Range logic dictates that the logical next target is the range high: 99.4k. This is the same logic we used to determine 90k was coming. So already at this stage, we can start drawing up a conclusion: if price is to reach lower prices, it seems unlikely to happen this week: 1. Monday low is a high-probability pivot 2. Range was reclaimed with the logical next target being 99.4k This is where statistics usually keep me grounded. When a plan is followed so perfectly, it's tempting to get confirmation bias and want to see the last part completed immediately. However, at this point the statistics and some simple TA are telling me that such a move is improbable - at least for this week. Therefore, I will just play the range at this point and see what 99.4k gives. --- Can the lows still be breached? Yes, but it would either require an improbable move this week or a move down next week. For the best case setup, we would see it happen this week. The current PA leading up to these highs is quite inefficient (not much structure) so this is not unthinkable. If it were ever to happen, it would happen with PA like this: This is also why price retraced the Monday dump so fast: it was equally inefficient PA. However, I want to repeat the stance I made earlier: I do not care if price does not reach the lows. I am only interested in the very best opportunity to allocate. I am already very well allocated and am fine with "missing the boat". Your situation might be different. I refer to my post from yesterday: xitter.cf/sergio_tesla_/status/1… Do I think it's still a likely scenario to take the lows one more time? Yes, purely qualitatively speaking I still don't like the lows and think we'll see them again. However, I have to honor the statistics so for now I am going to play the range, which tell me that 99.4k next is more likely. If price shoots up to new ATH's, I have no problem admitting that I was wrong about spending more time at the lows.