📈 PROJECTION UP: Tyler Allgeier (RB, ARI) — Sleeper's Week 7 projection moved 7.4 → 11.5 PPR pts vs DEN. #FantasyFootball #NFL #TylerAllgeier

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 JPMorgan predicts Bitcoin will outperform US stocks, gold, and real estate over the next 10 years.

The early stages of a bull market rarely feel bullish. "In 2023, there was about seven months of oscillation, of sideways action. We had two times 17% corrections on $BTC." "Still my base case is that we have broken the back of the bear market." "But that doesn't mean the good times are here and it's all gonna be sunshine and rainbows and easy from here on out." - @RyanSAdams

NEW EPISODE - Cypherpunk Owns $500M of Zcash and 18% of Its Hashrate @cypherpunk holds nearly $500M in $ZEC, controls ~18% of its mining hashrate, and has its sights set on 5% of the total supply. @will__mcevoy, CIO of Cypherpunk Technologies, joins @TrustlessState to unpack the company's massive Zcash bet and why AI could make financial privacy more important than ever. They dive into Zcash's explosive comeback, why its mining economics resemble Bitcoin's early gold rush, and the strategy behind accumulating and holding ZEC. CHAPTERS --- 0:00 Why Zcash Is Back in the Spotlight 3:24 Why Did Zcash Take So Long to Break Out? 5:09 Who Is Buying Zcash? 8:03 Can AI Identify Bitcoin Whales? 12:33 Inside Cypherpunk Technologies 16:39 Cypherpunk's Treasury and Valuation 17:57 Why Zcash Mining Is So Profitable 27:38 The Gap Between Zcash's Price and Hashrate 31:21 Mining Zcash and Keeping It 33:01 Why Buy CYPH Instead of Zcash? 38:05 What Is Cypherpunk Technologies Actually Worth? 41:44 Zcash's Builders and the Orchard Bug 46:37 Will McAvoy's Investing Background 49:23 Could Zcash Reach $10,000? 51:22 Will Governments Accept Financial Privacy?

someone asked me in token if im still bullish ETH told them yes they asked why and how i said ETH provides a type of value that is not possible to be provided by anything else in the world and as time goes on that value will only be more and more important to every single person what is that value? a fully trustless, permissionless, privacy possible value that can have endogenous financial capabilities like accessing credit and yield in a world of further capital controls, surveillance, transparency and totalitarianism, this is only more and more valuable for anyone with money its quite literally that simple, and its underpriced.

WEEKLY ROLLUP: AI Could Break Crypto Before Quantum Does? Could AI break crypto before quantum does? @RyanSAdams and @TrustlessState unpack Justin Drake’s “bunker mode” warning, whether holders should move funds, Tom Lee’s decision to stop buying ETH, and the shutdown of two Ethereum L2s. [TIMESTAMPS] 0:00 Intro 1:51 Yields, Oil & Bitcoin - @santiagoaufund - @josephwang 9:32 Tom Lee Stops Buying ETH - @coinbureau - @lex_node - @fundstrat 19:06 AI Threatens Crypto Security - @drakefjustin - @matthew_d_green 31:24 Cryptographers Push Back - @LindellYehuda - @mert - @vitalikbuterin 37:00 Ethereum L2 Shutdowns - @blast - @AbstractChain - @Starknet 41:25 Zcash ETF Momentum 44:57 FinCEN Withdraws Wallet Rules 50:22 Token2049 Takeaways

$ETH in midterm years: 2018 vs 2022 vs 2026 🛢️ Same date, Oct 8: 2018: -70% YTD 2022: -65% YTD 2026: -17.6% YTD 2026 has been far stronger. But Q4 of 2018 alone was -44%. If history rhymes even a little, the final shakeout could still be ahead. I'm ready to buy it.

Ethereum Co-Founder: "Everybody is piling in now because we have a few years of regulatory clarity." "There is going to be so much capital flowing into the industry, so much innovation flowing into the industry, things are going to unrecognizable 2 years from now." #crypto

I don't recommend anyone scramble to move their funds to new wallets today. But we should take the risks to cryptography from AI-accelerated math seriously, and minimize our exposure to not just quantum-vulnerable cryptography, but also potentially AI-vulnerable cryptography. The core new area of risk from this viewpoint is, unfortunately, ML-DSA / FHE / lattices. (and it's also another reason, along with quantum, why ECDSA might fall even faster than expected, hence the "fresh address" recommendation) So far most people have been in the mode of thinking "elliptic curves broken, hashes safe, lattices safe". But there is a good chance that the concrete security of lattices will take serious hits from the next two years of AI math. The basic threat model is: factoring is something that naively takes 2^(n/2) time, but over decades smart people have found and optimized number field sieves, and degraded that to 2^O(n^(1/3)), which is why RSA keys and signatures need to be ~400 bytes (and not 64 bytes). What if there are skeletons in the closet like that, both for elliptic curves and lattices, that we are simply not smart enough to discover - but bots soon will be? This is a major part of the reason why for the past year ethereum's lean roadmap has been going in the "hash-only" direction: no lattices, no ML-DSA, no Falcon, no lattice-based commitments inside ZK proofs, etc. Signatures in lean ethereum are all hash-based, either WOTS or SPHINCS-. For signatures and proofs, we already know how to go hash-only. The bigger challenge is for *public-key encryption* - and this goes far beyond blockchains. Secure communication, anonymizing protocols, lots of things need public-key encryption. And unfortunately there are long-standing mathematical theorems showing why public-key encryption cannot be done with hashes alone. You have to have some kind of trapdoor object that has at least one form of usable "structure" - either group theory (incl. isogenies) or lattices or code-based or potentially in the future even more newfangled and spooky things (local mixing?). But for anything that has structure, you should assume that AI will make at least some progress in breaking that structure. Here, one reasonable inference is that if you want to make something plausibly long-term secure, multiply the key sizes by 10. To me that's a very plausible world and something not at all extreme to predict. If AI will bring us 50 years of math in 2 years, then that 50 years of math may very plausibly include a "naive factoring -> GNFS" level of improvement to our ability to break lattices. In that world, lattices will still exist, but they will have to be significantly bigger to guarantee the same level of safety. And at those new larger sizes, hash-based constructions will beat lattice-based constructions on concrete efficiency in every use case where hash-based constructions are possible at all. Theoretically, of course it's possible that hashes are broken too (eg. P = NP would imply that). But I think P = NP is very unlikely. And intuitively, it's much more likely that a mathematical object has exactly no exploitable structure (like hashes are intended to), than that a mathematical object has exactly ~3 forms of exploitable structure (for elliptic curves: associativity, Schoof, pairings) and not some secret fourth form of structure we have not yet discovered that greatly degrades its security (for elliptic curves, ECDLP and pairing security). Similar for LWE, SVP, RLWE and the zoo of lattice problems. For this reason, we do not yet see any reason to worry and start padding the byte size of hashes (if we start to worry more, we would pad the round count first before doing anything to the byte size). Concrete TLDR, my own personal views: * Hash-based > lattice-based, in those situations where hash-based is possible at all * For anything lattice-based, be much more paranoid on param sizes. Remember that blockchains are only a small portion of the cryptography story; this point goes far beyond blockchains and applies to eg. access to websites, secure messaging, Tor / VPNs ... * For privacy protocols, strongly favor NOT putting encrypted notes onchain. Instead, send them offchain through some third-party mechanism. * If it's not difficult for you, keeping your funds in addresses which have not yet been used to make a transaction is a good idea. If it's easy for you, do it. **But be careful about migrations; I personally have lost more money in botched migrations than I have lost in all hacks combined**. * For multisig wallets, doing confirmations offchain is better than onchain, because this way the signatures of signer wallets do not get exposed to the public, so if ECDSA falls to AI much faster than expected, at least the multisig "gracefully degrades" to a 1-of-1 where the 1 is whoever was gathering the signatures - a much better place to be than "anyone can take the money" firefly.social/post/x/210783…

The deeper $NEAR thesis is about who controls intelligence. “If we build towards a future that centralizes intelligence and context… it would not be a utopian outcome.” “We can build technology to enable users to be sovereign and control their intelligence, control their assets, control their data.” “It’s a future I wanna build towards that my children can live in.” - @sal_ternullo

The cryptographic world computer: vitalik.eth.limo/general/202… My attempt to express in somewhat concise terms the true meaning of basically everything planned to happen to Ethereum starting from the fork after Hegota. It's really not just a blockchain anymore. It's a hybrid architecture that combines together blockchains and modern cryptography, to enable much more powerful properties. FOCIL, EIP-8288, Lean consensus, state management, formal verification, advanced mempool improvements (including privacy), and the longer-term specter of obfuscation all mentioned.

NEW EPISODE - Ben Cowen Says You Have Permission to Be Bullish Ben Cowen spent months expecting $BTC to roll over into a Q4 flush. Then BTC broke the May high and forced him to rethink the bear case. @benjamincowen joins @TrustlessState to unpack what changed, whether the four-year cycle is still intact, why altcoins are running without a true altseason, and why global liquidity remains the missing ingredient. Plus, the key Bitcoin level that would make him change his mind again. CHAPTERS --- 0:00 Ben Cowen Admits What He Got Wrong 3:30 Did the Bear Market End Too Easily? 6:06 Why This Bear Market Looks Different From 2022 9:59 Is the Four-Year Cycle Still Alive? 12:27 What an Early Low Means for the Next Bull Market 14:02 Why Altcoins Are Already Moving 19:15 Monetary Policy vs. Global Liquidity 22:56 Does Altseason Need a Crisis? 28:13 Why Liquidity Could Stay Tight 31:56 Can Bitcoin Catch Up to Stocks? 34:41 Five Years of Restrictive Conditions 37:27 Is Retail Finally Coming Back? 45:46 Bitcoin Defies the Macro Setup 48:47 The Weekly Bitcoin Close That Matters 53:43 Building a Conference Around Disagreement