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little article going over papertrade as predeposits open today and launch set for this weekend 😸
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pump/sol & pump/usd pairings, swapped some more solana into pump betting on weekly close > .0055 and .01+ shortly after
already 5x off bottom from summer & leading altcoin thus far this cycle
believe this breaking ATHs will raise ceilings for all new launches, still very underowned, yearlong accumulation & buybacks remain consistent with crosschain mobile app gaining traction
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other general market thoughts
zec 400 to 1600 in Q3, up from 40 in september of 2025, (500M -> 20B mcap) by far the top crypto performer of the past year, entering the double bubble turbulent area where price action becomes most volatile and blow off top ensues, i believe btc 2017 is best comp, aggressive uptrend+selloffs all year
btc eth & sol holding above range highs after good move off the lows from the summer, pa has been clean, no large liq runs yet but believe most are still offsides, think higher before pullbacks
hype & lit have been strong but recently sold off p aggro on robinhood perps integration news, believe this is the time period where it will make the most sense for hyperliquid & lighter to be aggressive with marketing, especially hyperliquid as i feel they have dominated but mostly exhuasted all of the liquidity of the crypto native cohort, hyperliquid has ~100k active traders? RH has 25M DAUs, want to see hyperliquid move aggressively into marketing towards more retail but also tradfi HNWI clients, am sure they are already thinking of ways to do this but is necessary step for them becoming 1T+ behemoth as Jeff envisions, partnership with Kraken on US integration is a big step
this is also the area where i expect a lot of builders to capitalize, HL builder codes are designed in such a way that retail frontends can build easily on top, believe gamified hyperliquid mobile apps will be some of the most successful crypto apps this cycle, similar to trading terminals success last cycle with onchain coins, social trading has been huge sofar with onchain coins, but PNLs on perps are much larger & whoever figures out how to tap that liquidity wins huge
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timing altcoins
zec uptrend started sept 2025
hype uptrend started jan 2026
pump uptrend started july 2026
ZEHYPERPUMP still strongest 3 imo
stating because i believe it will be important to be able to determine where different altcoins are in their market cycles, crypto does not trade one to one anymore, btc eth sol were all in downtrend for most of the year while hype outperformed aggressively, pump was in downtrend for a year straight while zcash pumped 20x, alt szns are an ever-rotating game, not something that happens all at the same time, being able to recognize when certain trends are beginning and others are ending is a necessary skill for compounding wins together
if i had to guess in terms of timing macro trends in three parts, id say zec is in its last third, hype is in its middle third, & pump is in its first third
it takes time for a base to build on assets before demand outweighs supply and uptrend begins & the opposite happens at tops when supply eventually outweighs demand
go look at old coinbase & robinhood charts, same trend diff timeframe
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anyway my point being i believe we are entering a new phase for alts doing well, onchain & cex alts, cex alts currently have extreme discounts because of how poorly they did last cycle, imo this is your opportunity for identifying gems in the piles of trash, because there are some out there and most still believe crypto is a scam
there is a lot of sidelined capital looking for things to bid, VCs & smart retail alike
the time to make your list of which coins to start buying is now, everything is floored
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TLDR:
Q4 bias: bullish, pullback + OI wipe in October, early bull market but late lev entries dangerous, high conviction spot positions safe
highest conviction: PUMP
invalidation levels: 74k, 73, .0034, 750, 95
concerns: rates/war/dxy strength
.@fomo was a real threat as discovery shifted toward mobile/social trading. @pumpfun saw it, moved absurdly fast, and is already fighting back at scale.
This team is a monster. laser focused when it matters, willing to spend aggressively ($300k/day on callout rewards), and insanely good at monetization. They won’t just sit back and watch their cash machine weaken, and I doubt their ambition stops anywhere near where the business is today.
Still very bullish $PUMP. Retail degeneracy will scale harder, and this entertainment/trading casino empire will be much bigger than people expect.
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Otti is celebrating 20K followers on Facebook! 🎉
Our little pond keeps getting bigger 🥹
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🚨 TRUMP: « THE SEC CHAIRMAN IS WORKING TO INTRODUCE HYPERLIQUID TO THE UNITED STATES »
I have a feeling that $PUMP could perform similarly to how $SOL did last cycle if we get another bull run.
Last cycle, there was no $PUMP token, so $SOL effectively acted as a liquid proxy for Pumpfun. Everything was denominated in SOL, people had to buy SOL as casino chips, and a substantial amount of SOL was also locked in LPs. On top of that, Pumpfun’s growth directly boosted Solana’s transaction volume and overall onchain activity.
But now we have $PUMP itself, so $SOL is no longer the most direct beneficiary of Pumpfun’s growth.
I believe the crypto market has fundamentally changed. Assets without intrinsic value — meaning tokens that aren’t backed by a real business generating revenue — have become increasingly uninvestable.
Unlike 2017 or 2021, there was no real alt season in the last cycle, and there wasn’t any meaningful liquidity influx into the altcoin market.
Instead, people started endlessly PvPing each other onchain, trying to make someone else their exit liquidity for the next dog coin.
On the other hand, Hyperliquid outperformed almost everything and brought a paradigm shift: tokens should actually be investable, and behind them there should be a working business that generates real revenue.
The problem is that there are only a handful of crypto assets that actually make money. And if we start caring too much about fundamentals, the market becomes more efficient and rational — which, to me, is kind of boring. At that point, it’s not that different from investing in the stock market.
If we compare crypto projects objectively with public equities, crypto itself is still just a relatively small industry — basically a subcategory of fintech/finance.
That makes me wonder whether there are simply better sectors to invest in, especially industries that are actually growing exponentially.
Maybe this is just a bottom signal, but for now, I have a hard time imagining BTC, ETH, or SOL significantly outperforming other asset classes over the long term.
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Thoughts on PUMP
Perps and memes remain the two most established and lucrative sectors in crypto. However, while HYPE, the clear winner on the perps side, trades at a $12B circulating market cap, PUMP, the analogous winner on the meme side, trades at just $1B at 2.4x P/S, implying a steep discount.
Contrary to what the sectors might imply, this discount has little to do with current revenue scale, consistency, or the potential for future growth. Like HYPE, Pump sits at both the infrastructure layer and the frontend layer and therefore generates significant fees ($36.5M over the last 30 days, 2.23x Solana REV). Similarly, PUMP's revenue has been incredibly consistent. Measured by daily revenue volatility, the business ranks in the top 20% of the top 100 applications, with more stable revenue than businesses such as Polymarket, Uniswap, and even Hyperliquid.
However, unlike HYPE, it is unclear how much of the value of Pump's business actually flows to its token holders. There is some clear separation, most notably Pump's $2B balance sheet belonging to the foundation, not token holders, but the extent of separation is unclear. Like all tokens, the truth lies between one extreme where the token is used purely as a way for the team to extract value and another where Pump is completely aligned with the tokenholders but cannot state so for legal reasons. However, given their lack of communication, my bias is it's much closer to the former. Remember, they are a very smart team, and many smart teams would happily raise $1B in exchange for a token they publicly state has "no inherent utility beyond market sentiment and community driven interest".
Despite this, there might be an interesting opportunity for positioning on the token, given they have hardcoded 50% of revenues to buy back the token until April 2027. At current revenue, this is 1.70% of the circulating supply monthly (vs 0.25% for HYPE). One argument is that these will be sold into by the team and investors; however, looking at July and August unlocks, they have barely sold, and price finally shows some strength.
While the equity/token relationship is incredibly important, as valuations show, the market may be overweighting this risk in the short term. What value is there for an already very well-capitalized team ($2B in holdings) in selling additional tokens at already depressed prices ($11M monthly from unlocks)? It is probably more likely that they understand 1) the value of positive price action for PUMP in driving attention and sentiment (especially against competitors like Fomo that have no token), and 2) the value of waiting to exit at more reasonable valuations, further into the innings of a new bull market. Having already committed 50% of revenue until April 2027, it makes more sense to take profit in a bull rather than at these prices.
IMO, if we are at the early innings of a new cycle, I could very easily see how increased revenue, buybacks, and attention would cause insane reflexivity on Pump, amplified by the fact it's one of the only liquid ways to get exposure to the meme trade that likely continues to dominate next cycle, with apps like Fomo making memes more accessible. At current prices I feel comfortable positioning for this and will cut rapidly on loss of strength, so in that sense the R/R looks decent.
NFA and definitely not a standard trade, but trying to share my thought process on taking positions publicly, especially as I begin to add more positions on various tokens near these levels.
Sent from my pumpfun app
