Welcome to MPA Macro, an independent research advisory service focused on global macroeconomics and monetary policy.
Washington, DC
Joined September 2015
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“Warsh is willing to hike right now...because there’s a low cost to doing so: What’s not answered is: What if the cost of doing so is higher?” said @macroderek.
This and more on Sep FOMC in @colbyLsmith 's latest in @nytimes.
xitter.cf/colbyLsmith/status/210…
gift link: nytimes.com/2026/09/17/busin… @nytimes
"Everyone is feeling each other out, both internally at the Fed and between the Fed and the market, and Congress and the White House to figure out how this new Warsh Fed is going to operate," said @macroderek.
@MorningBrew @CFOBrew
cfobrew.com/stories/with-his…
Larry Meyer reflects on his time working with Alan Greenspan.
@BloombergTV
bloomberg.com/news/videos/20…
"In a world where [the Fed is] not using forward guidance, they would be left with simply hiking [rates] as the only way they could signal their commitment to fighting inflation," says @macroderek.
This and more thoughts ahead of this afternoon's presser in @vtg2's latest.
Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh will speak publicly for the first time today in his new role as leader of the world’s top central bank.
What should we ask him at his inaugural press conference?
politico.com/news/2026/06/17…
Four things to watch in Kevin Warsh's Fed debut...
"Warsh is probably going to have to change his plans. He might have come in a few months ago wondering how to get a few cuts in — now he might have to fend off rate hikes."
@macroderek @ByKyleCampbell
americanbanker.com/news/four…
Warsh's concern "speaks to a general concern, especially among Republicans ... (that) too much of the discretion over financial liquidity sits at the Fed instead of at Treasury or in other places where people are directly elected." @macroderek @Reuters
reuters.com/business/finance…
It's time for Kevin Warsh's big debut as the new chair of the Federal Reserve. Hear @macroderek's thoughts in latest from @TheHenryEpp @Marketplace.
marketplace.org/story/2026/0…
"When it comes to things such as bank regulation or even currency policy, any discretion the Fed had before in those domains is going to be restricted from here on out," says @macroderek. More thoughts on the Warsh Fed below.
gfmag.com/economics-policy-r…
"The shape of the yield curve is going to continue to look less smooth because people are trying to balance the uncertainty of inflation, a new Fed chair, possible disinflation from AI and a much friendlier bank regulatory environment." @macroderek
americanbanker.com/news/high…
As time passes, Warsh's influence may grow by setting the FOMC's meeting agenda and putting his "thumb on the scale" over which economic issues and monetary policy issues get prioritized by central bankers, says @macroderek.
@SPGlobal @BrianJScheid
spglobal.com/market-intellig…
"Rather than building a case for rate cuts, Warsh will now have to spend his energy fending off growing pressure to tighten policy, or at least hold, from colleagues and the public alike," says @macroderek.
Kevin Warsh faces a new challenge as Fed chief: How to restrain a sudden shift in expectations for higher rates as fellow policymakers warn that inflation is back bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
"It sounds like the White House is giving itself an offramp in advance, because we’re not going to get a rate cut in June. This creates breathing room for Warsh to find his footing in his first few months as chair."
@macroderek @MarketWatch
Trump says he’ll let Warsh ‘do what he wants to do’ with interest rates. It’s a remark that Fed watchers have been bracing for. trib.al/QqdU0pe
“This is definitely a sea change from previous transitions,” shares @macroderek in the latest from @MarketWatch.
DM to get our full take.
Warsh confirmed as Fed chair by Senate. Here are 5 tests he’ll face on day one. trib.al/hWaIF0r
The story over the Fed’s independence — the belief that the U.S. central bank sets interest rates and makes monetary-policy decisions based on economic data and not Washington political pressure — might still be "in the first chapter," says @macroderek. Read the full piece below.
Powell’s legacy as Fed chair is fighting inflation and Trump. He may lose the battle against both. trib.al/4LWRH2F
"These swap lines are missing pieces of the puzzle."
@macroderek in the latest from @TheNationalNews.
What are currency swap lines and how do they work? thenationalnews.com/business…
"The opposition against the easing bias was likely broader than just [Hammack, Logan and Kashkari]. But the question is, when will the dam break on inflation expectations? Inflation has been above their 2% target for a while now." @macroderek @CNN cnn.com/2026/05/07/economy/f…
Monetary Policy Analytics, Inc. retweeted
We have long assumed that Powell will remain on the Fed board after stepping down as its chief as a buffer against Trump's efforts to exert control at the central bank.
@Reuters
reuters.com/world/us/trump-s…
"Powell's presser will focus on uncertainty remaining high, while declining to provide much forward guidance except to refer to the Fed's inflation and employment mandates," predicts @macroderek.
@AmerBanker @mvol4ok
"The Fed is likely to approach the coming quarters with a bias toward caution, balancing still-elevated inflation against a gradually softening growth backdrop," said Christopher Hodge, chief economist at Natixis Corporate & Investment Banking.
nationalmortgagenews.com/new…
