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Moonwave

@moonwavepro

Physics and macro-based market forecasts for QQQ and BTC • Transparency archive + JSON in pinned post • Not financial advice

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moonwave.pro
Joined October 2025
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The Moonwave Forecast Archive: Every 4-week forecast, timestamped. Every Grok evaluation, timestamped. Every hit and miss included, plus raw JSON if you want to check for yourself. moonwave.pro/transparency
MOONWAVE BTC Forecast Archive

MOONWAVE BTC Forecast Archive

Every 4-week forecast, timestamped. Every Grok evaluation, timestamped. Hits and misses included, plus raw JSON.

moonwave.pro
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Those Volatility signals really work. If you've been following Moonwave, you've traded the BTC midterm whipsaw perfectly - every pivot given in advance.
Moonwave (@moonwavepro) profile pictureMoonwave
@moonwaveproNov 1
Weekly Update – November 1, 2026 (1/2) The start of the week is a high-risk zone. Here's where to watch: • High-risk Sells Nov 2–3 (Nov 3 stronger) • Buy Nov 4 • Volatility Nov 5 • Buy Nov 7 Recap: A tale of two strategies. The demo BTC strategy, lacking live FX data on a weekend, auto-invalidated the Oct 24 Volatility (50% reduction). Strategy 2.0, into which a lot of Volatility-related work has gone, called Oct 24 as a 6-day short, which turned out to be (as of writing) a very good call indeed. Early days yet, but that sort of accuracy is exactly what we hoped to see. Ahead: Sells Nov 2–3 (Nov 3 looks strongest), then a Buy Nov 4, Volatility Nov 5, and another Buy Nov 7. Simple, right? Big macro events, like Friday's non-farm employment and unemployment, coinciding with the demand-liquidity wave bottom is usually a good place to look for entries.
Moonwave predicted market sentiment chart for Nov 1, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted times of increasing or decreasing demand for risk assets, with high-probability buy/sell/volatility points. The price of BTC is represented by an orange line, and the price trend between wave tops and bottoms is represented by a dark orange line.

ALT Moonwave predicted market sentiment chart for Nov 1, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted times of increasing or decreasing demand for risk assets, with high-probability buy/sell/volatility points. The price of BTC is represented by an orange line, and the price trend between wave tops and bottoms is represented by a dark orange line.

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We're migrating off Railway - hoping to get all the features live and working before the Thursday BTC strategy decision runs at 00:05 ET, since it's a signal date. Hopefully everything runs smoothly, if not we appreciate everyone's patience!
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Done, if a little late - today's decision executed at 00:28. Everything should go smoothly tomorrow.
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Well, that's enough Railway for us.
Railway Status (@railway_status) profile pictureRailway Status
@railway_statusNov 4
External network blocks affecting access to Railway Some users are unable to access Railway-hosted applications or railway.com because network providers and security services have blocked Railway IP addresses. We’ve confirmed that a … Status: Identified status.railway.com/incident/…
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railway.com
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Weekly Update – November 1, 2026 (1/2) The start of the week is a high-risk zone. Here's where to watch: • High-risk Sells Nov 2–3 (Nov 3 stronger) • Buy Nov 4 • Volatility Nov 5 • Buy Nov 7 Recap: A tale of two strategies. The demo BTC strategy, lacking live FX data on a weekend, auto-invalidated the Oct 24 Volatility (50% reduction). Strategy 2.0, into which a lot of Volatility-related work has gone, called Oct 24 as a 6-day short, which turned out to be (as of writing) a very good call indeed. Early days yet, but that sort of accuracy is exactly what we hoped to see. Ahead: Sells Nov 2–3 (Nov 3 looks strongest), then a Buy Nov 4, Volatility Nov 5, and another Buy Nov 7. Simple, right? Big macro events, like Friday's non-farm employment and unemployment, coinciding with the demand-liquidity wave bottom is usually a good place to look for entries.
Moonwave predicted market sentiment chart for Nov 1, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted times of increasing or decreasing demand for risk assets, with high-probability buy/sell/volatility points. The price of BTC is represented by an orange line, and the price trend between wave tops and bottoms is represented by a dark orange line.

ALT Moonwave predicted market sentiment chart for Nov 1, 2026. The chart shows physics-predicted times of increasing or decreasing demand for risk assets, with high-probability buy/sell/volatility points. The price of BTC is represented by an orange line, and the price trend between wave tops and bottoms is represented by a dark orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: Now with NASDAQ coverage through $QQQ. Both seem to have performed well this year, and both negative for at least the beginning of November. QQQ: The book stays long from August, up 0.7% on the trade as of writing. Updates: Coming this week, all system confirmations/invalidations will be timestamped with a unique SHA hash and shared to a third-party service, adding a public record of every trade to our public forecasts.
Sunwave QQQ predicted seasonal momentum chart for Nov 1, 2026. The chart shows predicted price as a percentage of the 90-day trading range in blue, and the daily close price of QQQ in red.

ALT Sunwave QQQ predicted seasonal momentum chart for Nov 1, 2026. The chart shows predicted price as a percentage of the 90-day trading range in blue, and the daily close price of QQQ in red.

Sunwave BTC predicted seasonal momentum chart for Nov 1, 2026. The chart shows predicted price as a percentage of the 90-day trading range in blue, and the daily close price of BTC in red.

ALT Sunwave BTC predicted seasonal momentum chart for Nov 1, 2026. The chart shows predicted price as a percentage of the 90-day trading range in blue, and the daily close price of BTC in red.

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We've moved the Moonwave $BTC book to a cleaner, clearer format: moonwave.pro/data/trades/btc… The old record started as a quick backtest output, then had live trades appended. It got clunky. Older rows carried Balance, PnL, and other fields from that buggy script. They were never used by the site, and they confused agents. The old file is archived and frozen: moonwave.pro/data/trades/arc… SHA-256 1e914d914e4f44a4df5b02e764475e8d36f82a01572de930ee2201c99f0e9155 The site now reads the new file. More features coming!
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No surprises from Warsh today and Moonwave up = numbers go up. November 2-3 is the next high-risk zone.
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Weekly Update – October 25, 2026 (1/2) Buy cluster Oct 25–28 looks good, with wave strength strongest on the night of the 27th into the morning of the 28th (FOMC). Assuming no terrible surprise from Warsh, that should set up a good rise into the next high-risk zone Nov 2–3. Ahead: • Buy cluster Oct 25–28 (strongest 27th-28th) • High-risk zone: Sells Nov 2–3 Recap: Wave called directional accuracy well on both Bitcoin and NASDAQ. The flagged Oct 18–22 high-risk zone paid off for bears, and the Oct 24 (weekend) Volatility manifested for crypto markets. Since current Volatility rules need live FX data (which doesn’t exist on weekends), the demo BTC strategy auto-invalidated the call - next development priority is handling market-closed Volatility signals with available data.
Moonwave Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Oct 25, 2026. The chart represents physics predicted high-low demand periods with high-probability buy/sell/exit points. The daily close price of BTC is represented as an orange line, with wave peak-trough performance as a dark orange line.

ALT Moonwave Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Oct 25, 2026. The chart represents physics predicted high-low demand periods with high-probability buy/sell/exit points. The daily close price of BTC is represented as an orange line, with wave peak-trough performance as a dark orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: BTC diverged from the experimental seasonal model's predicted uptrend, a little concerning. This week should be instructive. QQQ: The strategy is continuing to hold long. Updates: New transparency and live-update features roll out this week. We'll update here when they go live!
Sunwave BTC predicted seasonal momentum chart for Oct 25, 2026. The model attempts to predict seasonal pivots in BTC price. The predicted price of BTC, as a percentage of 90-day trading range, is represented by a blue line. The actual daily close of BTC is represented by a red line.

ALT Sunwave BTC predicted seasonal momentum chart for Oct 25, 2026. The model attempts to predict seasonal pivots in BTC price. The predicted price of BTC, as a percentage of 90-day trading range, is represented by a blue line. The actual daily close of BTC is represented by a red line.

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Monthly Moonwave - Oct 18, 2026 (1/2) Good, not perfect, month for the system. The wave predicted the overall direction of BTC, and even most entry/exits very well, and volatility signals delivered, but FX-based Buy timing shifts underperformed, buying early on dips. Even so, as of writing the strategy is up for the period. Despite the Oct 18–22 period being marked as “high risk” by the physics engine, both BTC strategies and the QQQ strategy invalidated today’s Sell (Oct 18). Bulls will want to see strength through the 22nd. Ahead: Up first is a Volatility signal Oct 24 and the first solid Buy signals Oct 26–28, the last of which lands on a critical FOMC date after last week’s hot CPI/PPI prints. Another “high risk” zone starts with the Nov 2–3 Sell signals, though they’re followed by Nov 4 Buy and Nov 5 Volatility into the later Nov 7–8 Buy range, then up to a (provisional) Sell Nov 16. It’s hard not to read that Nov 2-8 range as a volatile week into the midterms.
Moonwave Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Oct 18, 2026. The chart shows econophysics-predicted zones of rising and falling demand, and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is displayed as an orange line, and the price trend between wave tops and bottoms is displayed as a dark orange line.

ALT Moonwave Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Oct 18, 2026. The chart shows econophysics-predicted zones of rising and falling demand, and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is displayed as an orange line, and the price trend between wave tops and bottoms is displayed as a dark orange line.

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@grok as requested, the latest monthly update! Who's excited to try to trade the midterms?
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(2/2) Sunwave: The experimental seasonal-momentum model continues to perform well, catching the Monday dip and now forecasting “up” into the Nov 2–3 high risk zone and then. A QQQ Sunwave is coming this week! QQQ: The NASDAQ strategy is live and executed its first decision, invalidating the Oct 18 Sell and holding its (from the backtest) Aug 26 long. Updates: Still gathering results on Strategy 2.0, some UX polish and updates to the FAQ section of the site, and the ability to track QQQ performance on the Moonwave chart. Lots more coming! Note: An earlier version of this post was deleted after spotting some typos.
Sunwave predicted BTC seasonal momentum chart for October 18, 2026. The chart is the output of an experimental model meant to forecast seasonal pivots in BTC momentum. The predicted price as a percentage of its 90-day trading range is displayed as a blue line, and the daily close of BTC is represented as a red line.

ALT Sunwave predicted BTC seasonal momentum chart for October 18, 2026. The chart is the output of an experimental model meant to forecast seasonal pivots in BTC momentum. The predicted price as a percentage of its 90-day trading range is displayed as a blue line, and the daily close of BTC is represented as a red line.

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The Moonwave $QQQ strategy is live, and documented on its own Forecast Archive: moonwave.pro/transparency-qq… The same liquidity-wave method used for BTC appears to work on QQQ, with some differences: Higher order-book density means modeling the demand-liquidity “fluid” with much higher "viscosity" - waves propagate more slowly and smaller ones dissipate quickly, and there was the additional challenge of modeling wave travel across market-closed periods (nights, weekends, holidays). As a result, the QQQ strategy is very conservative and slower than the rapid BTC version, concentrating on large, high-probability moves and longer holds. Ironically, it's easier to model a highly volatile, 24/7 asset like BTC than a larger, slower-moving index that takes regular breaks. At writing, it is (of course) 100% backtest. The public era will begin with the first live trade, which we’ll announce here, add to the transparency page, and include in the machine-readable record at moonwave.pro/data/backtest/q…. This is an experiment and very much not financial advice, the strategy will almost certainly be refined as real results arrive, and past performance is not a guarantee of future results, but we’re optimistic about the backtested performance so far!
MOONWAVE QQQ Forecast Archive

MOONWAVE QQQ Forecast Archive

The public era opened on 16 October 2026 with an invalidation. The open position stays in the backtest.

moonwave.pro
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Weekly Update – October 11, 2026 (1/2) Rising wave into Oct 18 looks very good for the bulls. Monday (Oct 12) Volatility is a possible last-chance entry if it confirms. Recap: The recent story continues: direction right, timing early. The BTC demo confirmed an FX-delayed Buy on Oct 7, but price continued dipping into Thursday before rising into the physics Oct 9–10 Buy zone. Ahead: Volatility signal for Monday looks unlikely to confirm but might still give sidelined bulls a final entry. Then the rising wave into Oct 18 is the main setup.
Moonwave 8-week predicted market sentiment chart for Oct 11, 2026. The chart represents physics-predicted areas of increasing/declining demand, and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The close price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave 8-week predicted market sentiment chart for Oct 11, 2026. The chart represents physics-predicted areas of increasing/declining demand, and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The close price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: The experimental seasonal-momentum indicator continues to perform well in fall, and implies an uptrend into November. A possible dip Monday aligns with the Volatility signal - if it arrives (barring terrible news), that dip is for buying. Updates: QQQ/SPY strategy finalized. Its own forecast record page with (right now 100%) backtest goes live this week and will update as the system makes trades. Strategy 2.0 is nearly finished and running in parallel on BTC - so far the timing refinement looks promising (sample of 4 trades).
Sunwave BTC seasonal momentum forecast chart for Oct 11, 2026. The chart represents the predicted price of BTC, as a percentage of its 90-day trading range, as a blue line. The daily close price is represented as a red line. The chart is the output of an experimental method of forecasting seasonal pivots in price momentum.

ALT Sunwave BTC seasonal momentum forecast chart for Oct 11, 2026. The chart represents the predicted price of BTC, as a percentage of its 90-day trading range, as a blue line. The daily close price is represented as a red line. The chart is the output of an experimental method of forecasting seasonal pivots in price momentum.

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Weekly Update - October 4, 2026 (1/2) Recap: The Sep 21 Buy worked. The Sep 28 Buy produced a dip into the 83k range, and price sat in the mid-$83s through the Sep 30 PCE print. Friday’s jobs report missed hard: +29k versus about 90k expected, unemployment at 4.2%, hourly earnings +0.1%. Bitcoin spiked on the news, then settled in the 85k range over the weekend. Ahead: The demo confirmed the short today, Oct 4, and is now underwater. There is a faint Buy for Oct 6 that sat just below the inclusion threshold for the chart in September, but we’re including it now. It's worth watching, especially if the current negative FX trend reverses. The first clear Buy is Oct 9, followed by another on Oct 10.
Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Oct 4, 2026. The chart graphs physics-predicted times of bullish/bearish bias with high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Oct 4, 2026. The chart graphs physics-predicted times of bullish/bearish bias with high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: So far so good. The seasonal-momentum model has tracked the trend and implies choppy upward momentum through to mid-October, maybe the 12th–13th, then an acceleration into November. Updates: QQQ work for Strategy 2.0 is mostly finalized and waiting on its first trade. That will be announced when it happens, and QQQ will get its own transparency page, including a backtest and live performance.
Sunwave BTC seasonal momentum chart for October 4, 2026. This experimental indicator attempts to identify seasonal pivots in BTC momentum, with predicted price as a percentage of 90-day trading range in blue, and the actual daily close of BTC in red.

ALT Sunwave BTC seasonal momentum chart for October 4, 2026. This experimental indicator attempts to identify seasonal pivots in BTC momentum, with predicted price as a percentage of 90-day trading range in blue, and the actual daily close of BTC in red.

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Weekly Update - September 27, 2026 Physics saved the day! Strategy exited the losing 20th hybrid-FX Sell and went long on Sep 21. From last Sunday’s ~$81,200, BTC ran to ~$87,300 on the Buy date, then gave some of it back into the low 83s through the Sep 25-26 Buys. Now the question is whether tonight’s Volatility into the mild Sep 28 Buy is the last chance for sidelined bulls, or whether Friday already took that slot. Next data to watch: JOLTS / consumer confidence on Sep 29, then the Q2 GDP revision and August PCE on Sep 30. Those are the most likely places for an early turn ahead of the first Sell on Oct 2, which lands on US unemployment and wages. That is the first serious short window before the stronger Oct 4 wave top.
Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Sep 27, 2026. The chart graphs physics-predicted areas of bullish/bearish bias and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

ALT Moonwave 8-week Predicted Market Sentiment chart for Sep 27, 2026. The chart graphs physics-predicted areas of bullish/bearish bias and high-probability buy/sell/derisk points. The price of BTC is represented as an orange line.

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(2/2) Sunwave: The experimental seasonal-momentum model implies consolidation or slower momentum, then an upward acceleration into November. If the Oct 2-4 sells confirm, the two indicators will be in conflict. That is the interesting test this coming stretch. Updates: Work is still concentrated on Strategy 2.0. QQQ and SPY are in backtest and looking strong so far. Index books are deeper and slower than crypto, and the closed-market windows change the math - demand waves move slower per trading hour, but nights, weekends, and holidays interrupt and compress the full-liquidity calendar. Still, early results are very encouraging. Is there a ticker you'd like to see tracked? A question about the system? Drop it in the replies - we read every one.
Sunwave 2026 seasonal momentum prediction chart for BTC, September 27, 2026. The chart graphs the predicted price of BTC as a percentage of the 90-day trading range in blue, and the daily close price of BTC in red. The model tests an experimental method of predicting seasonal pivots in asset prices.

ALT Sunwave 2026 seasonal momentum prediction chart for BTC, September 27, 2026. The chart graphs the predicted price of BTC as a percentage of the 90-day trading range in blue, and the daily close price of BTC in red. The model tests an experimental method of predicting seasonal pivots in asset prices.

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