Victor

现下很多AI产品都是一厢情愿的自嗨，还是离用户太远了！！ 摩尔线程新发布的家庭AI中枢，产品经理直接被一大哥问懵了！ 合着卖一万多，就只是“比闹钟好”。

$BTC will fall bellow $35k 65% of orders on prediction markets are now betting $BTC drops below $50k this year. The whole timeline is calling $50k the bottom. And that's exactly the problem. Last cycle everyone called $28k the bottom. People piled in. Price dropped to $19k. They bought more. It fell to $15k. The market only turned when everyone got scared and capitulated. Price almost never moves the way the crowd wants it to. Last cycle $BTC dropped 78% before it flew. This cycle might be shallower, but don't rule out the $3x,xxx range. So this time I don't think it stops at $50k. How far is anyone's guess, but always plan for the worst case. Be careful with how you allocate capital buying $BTC. Don't trust the crowd, go heavy, then lose control of your emotions. That only makes everything worse. Technically it looks bad. Heavy red candles, strong sell volume. Lower highs, lower lows. The downtrend hasn't broken. Whales are pushing supply onto exchanges. 8,200 $BTC on June 4. 6,400 $BTC on June 6. The monthly average jumped from 1,200 to over 2,800 $BTC in just a few weeks. You don't move coins to Binance to hold them. Institutional money is still flowing out. Four straight weeks of net outflows, totaling -$5.4B. Spot ETF net assets dropped from $106.6B to $75.1B in a single month. BlackRock took back 2,515 $BTC, but $150M against $5.4B is a drop in the bucket. One green day is not a reversal. Everywhere you look there's supply. No demand. Sentiment is near the floor but hasn't touched it. Fear & Greed is at 13. History says it takes a reading under 10 to mark a real buy zone. GlassNode shows 47.7% of $BTC is in profit at $61k, meaning more than half the market is sitting in the red. Capitulation isn't done. Some whales are longing $BTC hard. Carrying $86M in unrealized losses, all-in on leveraged longs at 15-20x. Between June 3 and 7 they deposited another $40M USDC purely to push their liquidation price further out. This isn't conviction. This is a performance. Deploying that much capital into longs while the trend is down doesn't make you bullish, it makes you bait. The goal is to make retail feel safe enough to buy in so there's exit liquidity when it matters. Don't be the exit. So what do I do next? $65k-66k: if price bounces back here, it's most likely just gathering momentum to push lower. Bull trap, not a buy signal. $50k: the level everyone's calling the bottom. I'd put in 5% of my allocation here, no more. The fact that everyone agrees on this level is exactly why I doubt it. $38k: I'd add another 10% here and keep watching. Below $38k if possible: I add another 5% at the exact moment it hurts, when the frustration kicks in and everyone around me is giving up. That feeling is the signal. It's the capitulation the data is still waiting for. My goal is to DCA up, not DCA down. The bottom hasn't called anyone's name yet. When it does, nobody will want to answer. Winter Soldier out

The arrival everyone has waited for. 🇺🇸🇨🇳

There will be no AI jobpocalypse. The story that AI will lead to massive unemployment is stoking unnecessary fear. AI — like any other technology — does affect jobs, but telling overblown stories of large-scale unemployment is irresponsible and damaging. Let’s put a stop to it. I’ve expressed skepticism about the jobpocalypse in previous posts. I’m glad to see that the popular press is now pushing back on this narrative. The image below features some recent headlines. Software engineering is the sector most affected by AI tools, as coding agents race ahead. Yet hiring of software engineers remains strong! So while there are examples of AI taking away jobs, the trends strongly suggest the net job creation is vastly greater than the job destruction — just like earlier waves of technology. Further, despite all the exciting progress in AI, the U.S. unemployment rate remains a healthy 4.3%. Why is the AI jobpocalypse narrative so popular? For one thing, frontier AI labs have a strong incentive to tell stories that make AI technology sound more powerful. At their most extreme, they promote science-fiction scenarios of AI “taking over” and causing human extinction. If a technology can replace many employees, surely that technology must be very valuable! Also, a lot of SaaS software companies charge around $100-$1000 per user/year. But if an AI company can replace an employee who makes $100,000 — or make them 50% more productive — then charging even $10,000 starts to look reasonable. By anchoring not to typical SaaS prices but to salaries of employees, AI companies can charge a lot more. Additionally, businesses have a strong incentive to talk about layoffs as if they were caused by AI. After all, talking about how they’re using AI to be far more productive with fewer staff makes them look smart. This is a better message than admitting they overhired during the pandemic when capital was abundant due to low interest rates and a massive government financial stimulus. To be clear, I recognize that AI is causing a lot of people’s work to change. This is hard. This is stressful. (And to some, it can be fun.) I empathize with everyone affected. At the same time, this is very different from predicting a collapse of the job market. Societies are capable of telling themselves stories for years that have little basis in reality and lead to poor society-wide decision making. For example, fears over nuclear plant safety led to under-investment in nuclear power. Fears of the “population bomb” in the 1960s led countries to implement harsh policies to reduce their populations. And worries about dietary fat led governments to promote unhealthy high-sugar diets for decades. Now that mainstream media is openly skeptical about the jobpocalypse, I hope these stories will start to lose their teeth (much like fears of AI-driven human extinction have). Contrary to the predictions of an AI jobpocalypse, I predict the opposite: There will be an AI jobapalooza! AI will lead to a lot more good AI engineering jobs, and I’m also optimistic about the future of the overall job market. What AI engineers do will be different from traditional software engineering, and many of these jobs will be in businesses other than traditional large employers of developers. In non-AI roles, too, the skills needed will change because of AI. That makes this a good time to encourage more people to become proficient in AI, and make sure they’re ready for the different but plentiful jobs of the future! [Original text in The Batch newsletter.]

BRS在3/18最低降至10，没有触碰到零轴，意味着目前的回调不代表反弹已结束。但BRS已降至25以下，通常都表示反弹的进程已近尾声。等BRS=0时，对应BTC价格高点可能不会比$76,000（前高）再高出很多。 最大的变数，就是3月20日期权行权日后，到3月27日季度期权行权日之前，$75,000处的Short Gamma对价格波动产生的影响。 交易上，我在74,400挂过一笔5倍空（已成交），计划是如果继续反弹到7.8-7.9w就再补一笔，或者拿到6.5-6.7w左右分批止盈；反之，如果突破8w就全部止损。仓位不大，仅作为对自己分析判断的一种验证而已。

韩国和日本在霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输量占比为70～80%，韩国和越南石油储备能撑1个月，日本能撑2～3个月，油价上涨必然导致本国通胀和本币贬值，资本一定会外逃到美债市场，接下来就看日韩股市大逃杀，顺带受产业链影响的AI股， 扩大战争规模才是美国利益最大化，风险资产的洗牌和重定价，才刚刚开始

从我玩死十多只 OpenClaw 的感受来看，我其实是不信任 OpenClaw 的稳定性或韧性的，但我对 Claude Code 挺放心。这可是软件工程的核心目标之一… 安全重视上，两家对安全的重视力度都很高，我马甲提交的漏洞有得到很及时的反馈。题外话：某些 OpenClaw fork 或参考版本，对安全的积极性就差了许多，估计作者也只是玩玩而已。 安全场景上，OpenClaw 虽然也有 Sandbox 机制，也试图在工具权限上做更细粒度的设计，但如其名“OpenClaw”，Open 是其最大魅力，束手束脚的 OpenClaw 就不是 OpenClaw 了。又希望它自由，又希望它可控，这是大家纠结的一点。但真正生产环境下，过度自由的 OpenClaw，容易失控… 我在 OpenClaw 上看到了暴力美学，有大力出奇迹的惊喜，也有对它搞砸一切的担心… 一点感受，供大家参考。