Base layers. Israel and Bitcoin. The future rests on the base layers.

UK
Joined June 2012
"Politics divides, science unites. The past is dead, irrelevant. There is only the future." Shimon Peres
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Michael Folkson 𓉱 retweeted
The end of Temple Hitlerism, and the beginning of Rabbinic Hitlerism
🇩🇪 Adolf Hitler’s 'Eagle’s Nest' retreat in Bavaria, Germany, has been set on fire. German police have arrested a suspect as authorities investigate possible arson. Follow: @europa
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Leaving the best ads for last minute.
משימת חיי היא להנהיג את מדינת ישראל. לשמור על המדינה שלנו. ביום שלישי צאו להצביע מחל - רק הליכוד!
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He’ll be replaced eventually (everyone is eventually). And I hope his successor is Ben Gvir. But Bibi will forever be the master. Political genius.
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On Twitter @netanyahu has 4.4 million followers. @itamarbengvir has 372K followers, @naftalibennett has 687K followers. @gadi_eisenkot has 22K. And Eisenkot is gonna win according to media/pollsters? Even with Twitter's s***y algorithm, bots etc that is quite the bridge to sell.
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Media and pollsters want you to have memories of goldfish and they succeed with many people. My brain remembers Bibi not willing to be photographed with Ben Gvir, weekly mass judicial reform protests pre October 7th and then hostage psychodrama. 2026 Israel is a different country
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It is 2004 here in Israel. After 9/11 try voting out Bush with Kerry. Good luck with that
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After the media/pollsters tried to convince everyone Trump vs Kamala was a coin flip you’d think some would learn the lesson. But evidently not. Bibi vs Eisenkot is not a coin flip. Hence this election is interesting (coalition makeup etc) but one of the least important
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Pre October 7th it was a coin flip between left and right. Post October 7th the left is dead and everyone is fighting to be the most right. Bibi chooses what flavor of right he wants in his coalition
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Israel election predictions: Bibi wins (obviously). Who else is gonna lead next (and hopefully final) leg of Iran war? It’s his issue Ben Gvir surges. After October 7th population has surged right. Where are all left wing protests now? Smotrich/Feiglin do better than polling
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The Ben Gvir campaign is slick but started very late. Think it is just prepping and positioning for next election. That’s when Bibi succession gets serious and Bibi (probably) becomes President after Iran
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Regardless Hashem will find a way if Israel believes מי שמאמין לא מפחד
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מי שמאמין לא מפחד
I said I wasn’t going to weigh in on who should be prime minister of Israel as that is a decision for Israeli citizens. I did, however, want to share one point of view from the perspective of someone who has an understanding of how Israel is perceived in America. Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich have caused Israel enormous reputational damage with their statements and actions which are presented in the global media as representing the voice and will of all Israelis. As such, a government formed without Ben-Gvir and Smotrich will send a message to the rest of the world that Israel is turning a new page. This will allow Israel to rebuild lost credibility, increase the opportunity for an expansion of the Abraham Accords, and enjoy a better relationship with Democrats and Republicans and Americans at large.
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Michael Folkson 𓉱 retweeted
“Ben Gvir’s "Jewish Power" party will gain seats in Tuesday's election thanks to youth voters”
Typical Israeli young voter who's obviously indigenous to the land discusses the situation outside a rally for Itamar Ben Gvir Ben Gvir's "Jewish Power" party will gain seats in Tuesday's election thanks to youth voters
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Michael Folkson 𓉱 retweeted
Some hard truths about Israeli electoral politics, which you won't read in English-language analyses, and which are rarely said in Hebrew-language writings either - some people don't know them, and many try very hard not to know them. 1) Political parties are like guns that jerk leftward, and which you need to aim to the right of the target to actually shoot the target. Which is to say, every single political party's rhetoric is two standard deviations to the left of the policies that it will actually promote when in government. The reasons for this are many, but the main one is that Israel's international environment and its unelected officials exert leftward pressure on policy. Without active interference by the elected government, in autopilot mode, between any two options the more passive and the more dovish one will be implemented. Constant friction and rightward push is required even to just keep things as they are. 2) Party platforms are irrelevant and not worth reading. Almost every party, with the exception of the Democrats, has a center-right to right-wing written platform. These platforms are meaningless and largely unrelated to the party's actual policies. For this reason it's also extremely midwit to complain that a party has no published platform. These are unnecessary for understanding the party's actual policies. 3) The most important thing about a party is not what it wants, but what it's willing to sacrifice a lot for. On paper, 80% of political actors want the same thing: no Palestinian state; free market economy; most Haredim should enlist in the army; no "coercion"; improve diplomatic relations with Europe, the US, and really everyone; expand the Abraham Accords; go tough on Iran. In reality, nobody will do all of these things, and you're lucky if your elected MKs will promite half of them. If you want to know what a party will promote, ask not what it wants, but what it wants to avoid at virtually any cost - even avoiding it will hurt a lot diplomatically/economically/socially, etc. A party's true platform is not what it wants, but the place where it refuses to get dragged even if the skies fall. 4) The party's slate of candidates, except for its leader, is also an unreliable guide to its expectable policies. Tokenism is rampant in Israel. Most politicians think that if they cram their slate with people with a certain background, then people with that background will vote for them. They are wrong, but they keep assuming that. Eisenkot's Yashar is full of knitted kippahs, but the party's support among the national-religious is miniscule. Ben Gvir's Otzma Yehudit has both religious and secular candidates, but few seculars vote for the party. And so on. 5) The correct way to determine a party's probable policy is opinion polls among its voters, and the base's socioeconomic and ethnoreligious composition. As I said, on paper almost everyone is right-wing about security, capitalist about the economy, and wants peace and good relations with our neighbors and trade partners. But as I also said, it doesn't matter what people want; the real question is where they refuse to be dragged - by coalition partners, by inertia, by international pressure, and so on. So as a rule of thumb, look at who the voters are, and you can figure out policy. A nominally right-wing party won't dig in its heels about building E1 even in the face of sanctions, if its core base consists of upper-middle class hilonim in Gush Dan who cannot bear the thought of losing visa-free travel to Europe. A nominally capitalist party is unlikely to lower taxes or increase competition by letting in Uber if 70% of taxi drivers vote for it and if the average socioeconomic score of its strongholds is 5.7/10. And so on and so forth. 6) Finally, just my sense personally. I strongly believe that most Israelis know these things. They go through the moves, they argue, they insist "but the party I'm voting for also wants X!!", but deep down they know all the things I wrote above. These arguments are an exercise in trying to make cognitive dissonance go away. It's hard to be a well-informed, intelligent voter in Israel because if you're honest with yourself, you know that however you vote, you'll give up things very dear to you. That's difficult to accept, so most most voters bargain before they resign themselves to the foul-tasting compromises they inevitably have to make. It looks like they are argueing with you, but really they are bargaining with themselves.
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Six Months into Operation Roaring Lion: Strategic Insights, Lessons Learnt, and Implications for Israel Key Points: - Iran is weaker than at any point since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. - Its military and nuclear capabilities have suffered severe damage, but the regime has survived and it retains significant offensive capabilities. - The Strait of Hormuz has lost much of its value as a strategic Iranian lever. - The blockade caused economic damage and drove up energy prices, but it failed to trigger a global economic crisis. - Iran’s weakening has shifted the regional balance of power in favor of the Sunni axis, particularly Turkey, who emerged without suffering the damage sustained by the Gulf states, while entrenching itself in Syria. - The United States remains the world’s leading military power and is now better positioned strategically for a potential confrontation with rival powers. - The war exposed significant limitations in its ability to sustain a prolonged campaign, including finite stocks of interceptors and munitions, the vulnerability of American bases, and sensitivity to domestic economic and political costs. - Damage to energy and transportation infrastructure in the Gulf demonstrated that the Iranian threat is not merely a military problem, but a threat to the economic model on which the Gulf states depend. - China and Russia have supported Iran but remain unwilling to risk a direct military confrontation with the United States on its behalf. Both provided Tehran with support in various forms but refrained from direct military intervention. - The war has strengthened Israel’s standing as a strategic asset for the United States and its allies. - Israel is not isolated, but international attitudes toward it are increasingly polarized, and its standing in American public opinion is at a low point. - Israel is deepening strategic partnerships with India, the Gulf states, Greece, Azerbaijan, Somaliland, and additional countries in Europe and South America. - Israel has established a deep security zone in Lebanon and thwarted Iran’s attempts to link the different fronts. - Israel must prepare for the possibility that a weakened Iranian regime will seek to alter the strategic balance through escalation. For full details and insights see my paper at link below: @MisgavINSen
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Michael Folkson 𓉱 retweeted
Credit to @alananewhouse
Tel Aviv truly is a wonderful place. Compare this to the state of Paris and Brussels right now. The Jews built a paradise.
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Michael Folkson 𓉱 retweeted
In 70 years religious Zionism went from a junior partner in Ben-Gurion’s coalitions to holding finance, defense and national security. Now among the country’s elite with much of the future Knesset set to sport a knitted Kippa what comes next for the movement? A deep dive into Israel’s most complex minority. All in today's special edition of It's Noon in Israel. open.substack.com/pub/amitse…
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Michael Folkson 𓉱 retweeted
I wasn’t going to comment since this is a really bad take IMO, but since it’s taken off I feel the need to. To my understanding, there is no evidence whatsoever pointing to a break of decades old hardness assumptions like elliptic curve cryptography. 1/n
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase). Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets. IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster). Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot. Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time? Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.) Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once. Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case. I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026). Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS. Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security. The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.
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