Macro/quantitative investment. Crypto/DeFi, Equities, Futures, Volatility

NYC
Joined March 2021
This new magnesium study is insane. Healthy adults taking 2 grams of magnesium daily showed a 7.5-year reduction in cognitive brain age. The score combined working memory, episodic memory, and reaction time. Here’s the break down (1/10):
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
The study tested magnesium L-threonate (Magtein) specifically—not generic magnesium—in adults with self-reported poor sleep; it was funded by Threotech Inc. (Magtein maker). The promoted product is magnesium glycinate. frontiersin.org/journals/nutri… pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/41601871/ amazon.com/dp/B0GS3WYGNS
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Where we see evidence that mathematicians are more interested in the welfare of mathematicians than the improvement of scientific knowledge.
NYU math professor Tristan Buckmaster says OpenAI’s Tuesday drop of 722 AI-generated math papers wiped out entire research programs: “This recent dump of papers on Tuesday destroyed the careers of early career mathematicians.”
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"the thing with research is, for the most time, you're wrong." a quantitative researcher at citadel securities, the most profitable hedge fund in history, on what the job actually looks like day to day: "maybe 9 out of 10 attempts are failure. if not more." and the other half, which is what makes that survivable: "if you can prove something is working better, in a statistically rigorous way, then it can be rolled out, trading live within a matter of a few days." so the ratio is roughly nine dead ideas to one that ships, and the one that ships is live inside a week. nobody running research at a serious firm expects a high hit rate. they expect a fast cycle. the only thing you control is how quickly you find out and keep searching.
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Andy Aiken retweeted
Whether they want to admit it or not, many women have always been attracted to bad boys and risk-takers. I can’t think of any archetype of man that fits that description more today than newsletter writers that put it all on the line every day. bloomberg.com/opinion/newsle…
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Andy Aiken retweeted
There's also an interesting AI signal buried in the composition: financial activities employment fell to a 4-yr low; construction & manufacturing payrolls continued rising. I'm not a labor economist, but that's fairly consistent w/AI operating simultaneously as labor-substituting software & labor-complementary capital formation: fewer marginal white collars on one side; data centers/power infrastructure/equipment pulling workers in on the other. IMO any AI labor shock will manifest first as sectoral reallocation, *not* the envisioned widespread job destruction.
The more interesting signal in July NFP isn’t the -23k print; it’s the -103k revision to May/June. IMO that materially changes the inferred trajectory of labor demand: what looked like resilience now looks like fairly abrupt deceleration. Private payrolls managed just +30k for a 2nd mo while AHE slowed to 3.2% YoY. The level matters less than the change in slope, and the slope just got revised sharply downward.
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Andy Aiken retweeted
I was fortunate to know Victor. A wonderfully brilliant and eccentric man who influenced many of us. Fun story. His younger brother, Roy (whom Victor largely raised), threw a party which my wife and I attended. Victor was part of a crowd discussing the impact of limited liability on corporate equities in the 19th century. Yes, I am an exciting cocktail party discussant. I mentioned that Gilbert & Sullivan’s “Utopia, Ltd” was written in response to G&S losses to a limited liability promoter of an earlier musical. A week later, Victor insisted I join his annual Gilbert & Sullivan event. I found myself seated next to Victor for a four hour G&S requiem anthology performance. Quite the introduction! A man of passionate intensity whose equal we may not see again. He will be missed.
It's important for me to share my thoughts now while I can. Sadly, Victor Nieiderhoffer passed yesterday. I share my stories of Vic in my book. Eccentric person who influenced Toby Crabel and Monroe Trout. Worth reading his book! The Education of a Speculator.
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Andy Aiken retweeted
This is the Bloomberg obituary for Victor Niederhoffer. I will miss Victor very much. To me, he was a mentor. I received far more from him than I ever gave, and that was part of his greatness. I have applied many of his teachings in both my life and my work. A brilliant, original and courageous man has left us—courageous even beyond any reasonable limit. He was eclectic, competitive and a great contrarian by nature, but also generous beyond measure. He was a bold, direct and aggressive speculator. As Nelson used to say: “Go right at them”, Victor always urged me to apply his battle-tested principles to my own trading style. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Rest in Peace, Victor Niederhoffer. We had our tough moments but I learned a lot from you.
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Rest in peace, Victor Niederhoffer. He was a great man and one of the most interesting people I have known. I try to live by his example of lateral thinking and learning from other insightful people regardless of their status or credentials. I was fortunate to have gotten to know him through the NYC Junto and later, having the opportunity to work with him. My condolences to Susan and his children.
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We lost a legend yesterday, Vic Niederhoffer. My life intersected with Vic's in the way that so many things do...completely by random. Because of Vic inviting me into his world, my life was forever changed in a way that a guy like me, a guy from the lower class, could never imagine. There are a only a few circumstances and people in one's life...those defining moments or chance encounters...that lead us to a life a greater life. My encounter with Vic and subsequent relationship dating back to 2004 was just such an encounter and Vic was just such a man. I'm grateful to Vic for the kindness that was shown to me and my family....kindness he didn't have give, but did...and that kindness changed my life! Thank you, Vic!
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Andy Aiken retweeted
Absolutely. This is a total lie. All DOGE did was require contact with the aid recipients to confirm that funds were being used legitimately. Anything less than this is insane! Multiple people from USAID have been charged by the Justice Department with stealing money. Moreover, they pled GUILTY!! justice.gov/opa/pr/usaid-off…
no, the DOGE guys did not kill millions of children, and if you have participated in popularizing this disgusting, dehumanizing lie you are going to hell fyi
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I want to be really clear in my response. I am not going to retract anything, I stand by every single word. Labour are calling for me to apologise. The answer is no. Industrial rape across almost every town and city in Britain. Sexual torture. Murder. Endless rape. I sat there for two weeks, listening to these girls. I heard how one girl was raped by a dog, as Muslim men bet on what the animal would do. Girls drugged and locked in cages, like rats. Another, raped by 700 men over three years. Dozens and dozens of these stories through our inquiry, and we are barely scratching the surface. This was allowed to happen EXACTLY because politicians were cowards, refusing to discuss it. I will not make that same mistake. I said what I said, and I meant it. The Labour Party have blood on their hands, yet they think they can demand an apology from me for highlighting the systemic evil they allowed to infect our entire country? They can piss off. I am angry about it. Furious. When you hear directly from these girls about what they have been through, it changes the way you see politics. Forever. Our report will be out very soon. When that happens, I don’t want any apologies from the Labour Party. I don’t care about that. I want to see those politicians responsible for covering up this atrocity behind bars for what they have done to these girls.
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this bears reposting- A long time ago, I sat at the bar of a private club at CME I belonged to and spoke with 4 other traders about how we were willing to neglect our health and personal life in the pursuit of our financial fortunes. 3 of those men died in their 40’s and one is suffering from alcoholism with related health probables. I am the only one alive and successful. I cannot count how many traders I know that died young. The stress, tension & anxiety this business can cause can be extreme. The chronic stress and tension this business can bring takes a real toll on us physically, spiritually and emotionally. Please do not neglect the importance of banking spiritual capital, physical capital and emotional capital while you are pursuing financial capital. If you do not know how to love and be loved you will NOT sustain long term profitability.
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I am so encouraged by the vast number of young British men who are joining up to Restore Britain. Thousands and thousands and thousands of them. Today, an article in the Daily Telegraph called them Nazis. This is what the establishment does - it stands on the neck of those young British men who care about their country, who want illegals deported and who believe in an immigration system that benefits the British people only. Tim Stanley at the Telegraph should be ashamed of himself, as should Reform who have used the same vile language. Millions of young men feel entirely politically alienated. For decades, no political party has spoken for them. Well now there is one. Restore Britain. And hundreds and hundreds more join every day. We won't treat them like dirt, we won't patronise them, we won't insult them. I urge all young men who are now following Restore Britain to rise above it. Work hard, be respectful, play by the rules, but enjoy yourselves - ignore the woke bullshit, and crack on. Get involved, and spread the word. We are going to get our country back.
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BREAKING: In one of its largest intra-day reversals in history, silver has completely erased its +14% gain and turned RED on the day. Silver just erased -$900 BILLION of market cap in 90 minutes.
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Keep your eyes on the yearly pivots in the indices ES 6902 and NQ 25478. This is the dividing line. Above it ES needs to fill the gap 6937 to rally to test last weeks high on the way back up to 6980. Above 25479 NQ needs to fill its gap at 25562 to test 25845 on its way up to 25907.
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Yep
Banks earn ~5.7% risk-free at the Fed. They pay you ~0.1–0.5% on savings. That spread is policy-enabled. The yield goes to banks, not you. Since 2008, banks have been paid trillions in interest on reserves—funds that otherwise could have reduced the federal deficit. Now those same banks are trying to kill the market structure bill so crypto companies can’t pay you interest on stablecoins. This isn’t about safety. It’s about preserving a monopoly on yield. Voters will remember the politicians who chose bank profits over your right to earn.
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Andy Aiken retweeted
The EU should be abolished and sovereignty returned to individual countries, so that governments can better represent their people
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