MD @ Starshot Ventures (VC / PE / RE) | Prev. EVOKE, UpfrontVC 🏠 LA via PHI | 💜 @stephanieuchima + 👦🏼👧🏼👧🏻 **No investment advice, views my own**

Los Angeles, CA
Joined March 2009
PERSONAL ANNOUNCEMENT: I'm thrilled to share that I've begun a new role as Managing Director of Starshot Ventures and Head of Starshot Capital Management, the private family office of Kurt Seidensticker (founder and former CEO of Vital Proteins). I'm exited to further the great work done to date by Kurt and his team in building and backing category defining companies and world-class operators across CPG / wellness, AI-first software, hospitality, and real estate.
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This is the way
X Pro Tip: Use lists. It's really the best way to curate the feed to your exact liking. It's like being able to switch the algo at any time. You can have a tech list, finance list, politics list, games list, anime list, memes list, etc. It takes upfront work to curate but it will be the actual content you want to see. It also sorts chronologically so you can see the most recently posted content first. Subtip: Be judicious in the lists. Think of each list as an elite team. If you start overcrowding the lists you lose signal. Be discerning for your best experience. Until the algo is fixed this is your best bet to curating your experience to your taste.
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
There’s a deep underlying analogy between what has happened to Charlie Kirk since his murder and what has happened to Israel since October 7. In both cases, there was a clear act of violence against an innocent victim. And in both cases, instead of recognizing the wrongness of that violence, many have sought to blame the victim—pointing out their faults as if that somehow justified the killing. They fail to grasp that innocence, in relation to a crime, does not require moral perfection. A person can be flawed and still not deserve to be killed. A country can have problems and still not deserve massacre. But instead of acknowledging this, they fixate on imperfections—real or invented—in order to make the violence seem less shocking and less criminal. And it doesn’t stop there. They don’t just highlight flaws—they engage in libel: decontextualizing quotes, spreading distortions, even fabricating claims, all to create the impression that the victim deserved it. The goal is not explanation, but to exonerate the perpetrator. That’s the core of the analogy. Whether in the form of antisemitic libel or more general attacks, libel functions to erase the very concept of innocence. It turns victims into aggressors and makes illegitimate violence look justified.
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Hey @Roblox, my 9yo’s account got fished in your chat and the attacker has been able to remove parental controls and change the age to 18yo without our approval. Your support ticket responses have been utterly-unhelpful and frankly hostile. How is this an acceptable account security policy for a minor account?
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@roblox, it’s been multiple days and still no response from your support department.z we’ve submitted multiple tickets to no avail and you have made no effort to rectify this outrageous situation. How can a minor account with parental control in place simply change their age to 18 and thereby break all parental oversight??? This person is now reaching out to our son’s friends and trying to fish them as well. You have a problem on your hands and you’re asleep at the wheel
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What a tour de force
"I heard stories that last year, end of 2022, when the auditors were getting involved, they were telling GPs to talk to each other to try to figure out how to value things." (source: Beezer Clarkson of Sapphire Partners) 2022 was the year that pissed-off LPs put a spotlight on poor valuation practices, with different VCs holding the same company at radically different marks. This is not a simple issue, and nor is it just a question of correctly setting marks or entry price. The failure of venture capital to properly address valuation has cascaded into a number of other problems. The majority of "venture capital wisdom" today was hastily assembled during the SaaS bull run from 2011 to 2021 and is designed to cram money into high growth companies. In this transition, the concept of "valuation" was slowly squeezed out by "pricing". Few managers can now really claim to understand the former. Instead of looking to understand the intrinsic value of an idea, investors began to simply follow the market. Were others investing in similar companies? How were they priced? In this environment, multiples (mostly multiples on ARR) seemed like a practical tool. Historically, multiples were a tool for price comparison after a valuation had been completed: "We often pursue this kind of rationalization as a spot check, generally after going through the valuation process. When the multiple is implied, investors will then compare it to others seen in the public and private markets to get more comfortable. Think of it like a gut check, a way to determine if the valuation feels 'reasonable'." (source: "When Entry Multiples Don’t Matter" - @a16z) In the rush to accelerate capital velocity in the low interest rate environment, multiples became the defacto approach for quickly pricing rounds. Four major problems stem from this: 1. The fundamentally procyclical nature of comparative pricing has weakened returns and concentrated risk for venture capital. 2. The herding of capital into SaaS means it is now far less likely that exits will appear on a scale to produce the required returns in this sector. 3. Founders build in sectors where VCs more easily understand value. The habitual use of multiples has shifted activity to SaaS, away from (e.g.) deep tech. 4. Focusing solely on revenue has incentivised founders to sacrifice financial health, often resorting to cheap accounting tricks or fraud in some cases. The focus on revenue multiples has incentivised capital intensive business models that spend every dollar on creating more revenue growth, to drive up value and raise more capital to fuel more growth. The outcome is companies that have poor unit economics, little in the way of a competitive moat, and weak financial health. These are not attractive targets for IPO or acquisition, which is why venture capital has a huge liquidity problem today. It has turned venture capital into an engine that burns a lot of cash to produce huge excess heat and relatively little kinetic energy. "There are two ways to come up with a value for a financial asset. The first is to calculate an intrinsic value by discounting future cash flows. If the stock market is efficient, price and value will be the same. The second is to compare investments that are similar and buy the relatively undervalued one and sell the overvalued one. If a sufficient number of investors are doing this, few will outperform the market" (source: "Everything Is a DCF Model" - @MorganStanley) Fundamentally, using multiples to price a company is a delegation of responsibility to the market. In public markets, where there is more price tension and shares are more liquid, this can make sense. This is why it's so difficult to outperform index funds. In private markets, this is very different. The whole ballgame for venture capital firms is finding outlier companies and novel concepts. The idea that they could be appropriately priced by the market is obviously silly, although it probably explains recent underperformance. In conclusion, after a decade of sneering at "excel jockeys" and financial engineering, venture capital needs a rennaisance of financial literacy. Investors don't need to start building detailed DCFs for each investment they make, but they should at least understand the main drivers of value and how to measure them in the context of a unique scenario. It means learning how to read and understand financial forecasts, and build logical connections with business models, strategies and markets. It means looking for sustainable competitive advantage, not just rapid scalability. Mostly, it means questioning all of the dogma that has appeared in venture since 2011.
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
Unions in the 1950s originally opposed container shipping, which reduced the cost of shipping from $6 to 16 cents a tons. Today they oppose further automatization. The union is arguably acting in its interests, but the interest of the rest of humanity is to crush them.
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
Not a 20 min podcast 😉 @Kells_Bells and I did an 1.5 hour podcast with Alex Shahidi, Co-CIO of Evoke Advisors We go in depth on Pre-Seed and Seed VC and our investment approach at @CendanaCapital Outstanding, probing questions from Alex who is a very thoughtful investor 💥 youtu.be/t9dEfRIK5ls?si=CxEB…
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
my sincere answer is that a) a life under Hamas is a death sentence and b) if Hamas infrastructure not eliminated (the ideology cannot be, but like nazi germany + imperial japan, the "materiel" + ammunition and attack capability can be so badly degraded they cannot attack again and create ANOTHER war which would absolutely be the case, causing yet another war with thousands of innocents dead. THUS––the ONLY path, a realpolitik path, one versed in history of military affairs, counterinsurgency is a narrow one: eliminate Hamas, Pan Arabic Marshall Plan, peace led by new political party, Palestinian state...and future prosperity. sadly the reality is these poor innocent children were born as unlucky as those in Sudan or Syria or Afghanistan or Nazi Germany: horrific unfair fates under a genocidal terror group who sacrificed them KNOWINGLY from 2006 when Israel pulled out and they hid under the population and stole aid + money and instead of building Gaza into Dubai turned it into a war machine
Replying to @wolfejosh
20K kids are dead. 40K kids are severely injured. 800K kids lives have been destroyed. And per Israel, we're only halfway there. I'm sincerely asking you to explain how if Israel hadn't responded this way, there would have clearly been more suffering inflicted on children?
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
ALL EYES ON SUDAN The magnitude of suffering is horrific😠. World’s LARGEST internal displacement crisis Over 9,100,000 people have been displaced 😥 Almost 5,000,00 people on the verge of starvation
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
Protesting is fine. Encouraging protest is fine. It's just NOT genocide. Genocide is an intentional Hamas led perversion of the word. It IS war and it IS horrific and it IS war directly caused by Hamas terrorists attacking and raping and murdering 1,000+ and dragging 200 innocent peace-seeking Jewish hippies into underground tunnels. THAT was genocide. Intentional targeted killing of a people because of their ethnicity. 18 of 24 Hamas brigades now eradicated. 15k of 25k-30k the most precise combatant to civilian ratio in modern warfare. If Israel wanted to genocide it would. Most Israeli soldiers are already out of Gaza. When 3000 Americans were killed in 9/11 400k Afghans were killed wiping out Al Qaeda. It's was NOT genocide. When 2000+ Americans were killed in Pearl Habror and 200,000 Japanese were killed in 5 days it was NOT genocide. Calling war genocide is twisted tactic used by hateful on the gullible to keep them ignorant.
The CEO of Hims coming out in full support of Hamas was NOT on my 2024 bingo card.
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Can’t endorse this more strongly. Thanks Jason!
When a company is knowingly harming our children to make a little extra money, we have to stand up and do what is right. As a concerned father and citizen, I am working with a serious lawyer for a serious issue. Today, I filed an activist letter with Alex Spiro against @KelloggsUS to demand they stop their unethical behavior of selling inferior, more harmful versions of their products to American children.
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Amped for Day 1 @ #UpfrontSummit…always the best event in tech and venture
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
Every Flyers player is pulling up to the Stadium Series tonight dressed as Rocky @BarstoolPhilly @spittinchiclets
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No longer a "rising" star, Dustin and his team at Wonder are solidly stars in the LA venture ecosystem. It's always great to see good people do well
👋Announcing $102M across our new @WonderVentures IV pre-seed fund & 1st-ever Opportunity Fund to invest in LA's best founders earlier than anyone else! Thanks to the founders who allow us to be part of their journeys & the LPs who believe in our mission. techcrunch.com/2024/02/05/pr…
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A timely trip down memory lane by the always thoughtful @broukhim
The last time a Harvard President was forced to resign, I was the editorial co-chair at @thecrimson, and that president was @LHSummers. I stayed up all night and penned the staff editorial that ran the next morning. We titled it "Harvard's Loss," and in it we praised Summers' "willingness to press for change at an institution by nature resistant to it," and specifically lauded Summers when he "unforgivingly, and often publicly, made known his prioritization of certain academic initiatives over others." We continued, "It is the prerogative of and, more, the duty of a university president to shift a university’s focus when the demands of the era require it." I bring this all up because, to me, Summers' resignation was the opening bookend to the insanity that culminated in Claudine Gay's resignation today. Much can be learned from understanding this episode, which ushered out the era of the public intellectual University President and replaced it with the university's Bureaucrat-in-Chief. We ended the editorial with a call to the Corporation, which I'd like to re-issue today, "We hope that the Corporation will appoint an able successor with the overflowing ambition that defined Summers’ brief presidency." I hope to offer more insights from my time covering it in the coming days and weeks, and hope the lessons of the past help us bookend Harvard's Loss in 2006 with Havard's Gain in 2024. You can read the full original editorial here: thecrimson.com/article/2006/… cc: @BillAckman @SecPritzker @JacobMeirMiller @lessin
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Great advice for parenting in general
This is the best sermon you’ll hear this Sunday. Enjoy some @padraig_h wisdom.
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
Jake Tapper makes an extraordinary effective case against Hamas and the calls for a cease fire - using Hamas' own pronouncements. 7 minutes worth watching.
How Hamas frames the civilian casualties of war in Gaza
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This is outstanding and reads like a (worthy) application to be the next commissioner / CEO of the PGA Tour xitter.cf/ogilviej/status/172166…
(1/3) I sent this to as many @pgatour members as I had contacts for, including player directors 9 days ago. Open letter to the membership of the PGA Tour, From 1999-2014 I was lucky enough to be in your shoes. It was an incredible time to be on Tour. Tiger Woods put the golf world on his shoulders, and everyone involved in the game rode the wave. During that time, the PGA Tour established itself as a tour with no equals. We played in the largest economy in the world; 90% of the tournaments were located within three time zones, perfect courses, a rabid fan base, and the world's most famous athlete (not named Michael Jordan) played on the PGA Tour. It wasn't a fair fight. Most of those conditions remain today. The US is the largest economy in the world, the PGA Tour plays 90% of its tournaments within three time zones, the courses are the best conditioned globally, the fans are incredible, and instead of one giant needle mover (Tiger), we have the youngest, deepest collection of stars in the history of the PGA Tour. Just as important, in the age of streaming, sports became the only product you have to watch live. The value of sports on TV and digital rights exploded just when the PGA Tour's previous TV contract (which was awful) expired. The new TV deal started in 2022, the same year Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) put $2B into professional golf and created LIV Golf. Tiger Woods created a financial wave for my generation. The lalapalooza effect of new competition coupled with skyrocketing values of sports rights has created a financial tsunami for yours. And this tsunami is why the opportunity to invest in your Tour has generated so much interest. Whether it's the Saudi PIF framework agreement or other private equity proposals, they all share something in common. The PGA Tour will be split into two entities: a new for-profit, PGA Tour Enterprises, and a not-for-profit entity, the existing PGA Tour, Inc. The current PGA Tour is organized as a 501(c)6, and as a tax-exempt entity, by law there can be no owners. Each one of you is a member of a sports league that exists to promote professional golf, financially support the staging of its tournaments, invest in the PGA Tour organization and all the ancillary products therein (Shotlink, PGATOUR.com, the TPC Network, THE PLAYERS, President's Cup, etc.). It's confusing, but we are the sole members of a not-for-profit entity, that owns a collection of assets worth billions of dollars. How could a 501c6 be worth billions? Let’s take the old Honda Classic as an illustration of potential asset value. If this tournament were franchised (like in the NFL, MLB and the NBA), allowing someone to "own" the only PGA Tour event held in the Palm Beaches, the franchise value would be north of $100MM without breaking a sweat. Now think about the worth of THE PLAYERS or President’s Cup, it is not a stretch to value each in excess of $1.5B. More than sports-washing, this unique circumstance is why the Saudi PIF and many outside investors are excited to invest in your Tour. The Saudi PIF and the other outside investors predominantly operate in the arena of "Private Equity," often referred to as PE. These are large, well-capitalized companies employing many brilliant, ambitious people. PEs invest intending to earn outsized returns for their investors, which will lead to enormous pay packages for themselves at exit (the Saudi PIF has other reasons, but despite the rhetoric you hear about unlimited money, they demand a return on their capital).
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⚡️MICHAEL CARNEY ⚡️ retweeted
The left-wing colonial people have to invent specific rules for Jews/Israel to justify their takes. Because if you believe land belongs to the indigenous people, it's clear Jews were the indigenous people to the land. Jews were there long before Islam was even a religion, before and during when the Assyrians, Babylonians, Persians, the Romans etc. controlled the area. Jews remained the largest group in Jerusalem even well into the 19th century under the Ottomans. If, on the other hand, you believe the land should belong to whoever is there now after wars etc. because historical claims are illogical and that's how every country in the region was formed, then it belongs to Israelis now. So instead they have to create a special rule for Jews/Israel where Jews lost their right to the land when they were driven out via wars and conquest, but also don't have a right to it now because Jews moved back and other people who lived there after that were driven out because of wars. It makes no sense unless you apply a random cutoff that says the only thing that counts was who was there around the turn of the 20th century.
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