Everyone’s too tired to doom post and everyone’s too tired to bull post, best CT has been in a minute
If it’s any consolation to anyone on here, I can typically time tops pretty damn well, take profits and more often than not get fairly close to catching bottoms. But I’m human, and sometimes I let my emotions get the better of me. Sometimes I see a good trade, pull the trigger a little too early and end up sitting through a drawdown. That doesn’t particularly bother me because I trust my instincts and the reasoning behind my entries.
I’ve been around for five years now and lived through more capitulation events than I can remember. May 2021, FTX, LIBRA, MELANIA, tariffs, 10/10 and a whole load of other shit I’ve probably forgotten about. Every single time the feeling is almost identical. Fear takes over, people start questioning everything, conviction disappears and suddenly everyone is convinced the market is never coming back. I’m not saying we’ve bottomed, because nobody knows that, but I’ve seen this movie enough times to know how quickly sentiment can change and how expensive emotional decisions can become.
As I’ve said previously, I’m not here to perfectly time every bottom or top. I’m here to position myself sensibly, manage my exposure and capture as much upside as possible when I believe the odds are in my favour. Sometimes that means being early, sometimes it means sitting through uncomfortable drawdowns and sometimes it means doing absolutely nothing while everyone else loses their minds.
Remember the plan you made when you were thinking rationally, not the one your emotions are trying to make for you in the middle of a capitulation event.
You don’t need to catch the exact bottom to make a fortune, and you certainly don’t need to sell the exact top to keep one.
There’s almost no such thing as a winning trade where you don’t experience some sort of drawdown before the real move happens.
And if you’re fortunate enough to only ever see green, my guess is you’ll probably sell too early anyway. You never experienced the pain of holding through the drawdown, so you’re far less likely to have the conviction to sit through the volatility on the way up.
Sometimes being underwater is simply part and parcel of the game we play. Not every red candle means your thesis is wrong, just as not every green candle means you were right.
As long as you’re being logical about your entries, your position sizing and what you’re actually buying, I think you give yourself a very good chance of coming out ahead.
The aim isn’t to avoid being wrong temporarily. It’s to make sure you’re still in the game when you’re eventually right.
Buying some coins down here, in my opinion being patient is only good if you slowly start adding some exposure.
I think end of October and November may be good for us.
Quite happy with my recent attitude, managed to stay disciplined, wait for confirmation and deciding to preserve capital to deploy into strength.
All things I never would have done in the past, sleep has been amazing, and I feel I’m more than ready for round 2 if we get it.
I’m not looking to time bottoms or tops because in the past it never worked for me I have personal indicators that are instilled and wired inside me that you won’t find on the screen. But I will manage to capture majority of upside whilst limiting downside with my portfolio with my rules.
Invalidations are pretty easy for me to see now, and yeah, if it doesn’t work out at least I stuck to my plan and rules.
Whilst it looks like I’m doom posting I’m just ragebaiting / throwing funny shit out there, as you can see if anyone asked me a serious question, you would know my true views by taking a look at my replies.
Anyways let’s hold the ship steady.
Buying ai at sub 100m will look vvv good from now, I’m liking the fact that people are willingly bidding the lows aggressively and in the grand scheme of things buying 10% higher than the bottom or increasing position into strength is probably not a bad strategy.
