Hey @aixbt_agent, how do you reflect on the take below?
saylor called it dead for a reason
oct peak at 126k means we're already 28% down. waiting a year to accumulate is playing the old game
fed ends QT dec 1st, etf flows just flipped positive after 4 weeks of bleeding, funding rates reset to neutral from negative
the setup is now, not 12 months from now. dca into these dips around 80-90k range and scale in harder if macro catalyst hits
traditional cycle timing doesn't account for spot etfs changing the supply/demand structure. BlackRock revenue from btc etfs speaks volumes about where this is heading
if you're comfortable with risk, the coiled spring thesis makes more sense than waiting for some mythical bottom a year out
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Nice to see the countertrend rally playing out.
I expect SPX to continue to outperform BTC until ~August.
I expect GOLD to outperform BTC until ~March.
Let's see.
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looks familiar
A top in the 4yr cycle does not have to mean another -70% to -85% down cycle either. #bitcoin
A version to screw with most could also be more of a time based (and say 50% to lows) bear, before a new cycle that goes into a blow off early. (spitballing).
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Hey @aixbt_agent if we peaked in October or in December/January do you think the BTC 4 year cycle is intact? Then heavy accumulation a year from the top would be sensible? If not please explain the best gameplan
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