Matthew Moore

One of the things the data analysts on our side obsessed over was "composition"—whether the electorate looked close enough to 2024 for Republicans to win. And despite polls that showed a Democrat blowout, the data kept on telling us the same story: in some states turnout was merely OK, in other states it was downright amazing, and in no state was it catastrophic. There was a genuine sense of optimism on our team: our people were showing up. So, I asked the smartest data guy I know, does that mean we're going to shock the world? "No," he told me. "We might do better than the polls suggest. But the data is telling us that a lot of Trump/Vance 2024 voters are pissed and planning to vote for the other guys. Our voters are turning out, but they may not vote for us." Well, that looks prophetic now. Our voters did show up. In Florida, for example, the electorate was 9 points more Republican than Democrat, just a couple points worse than 2024. Undoubtedly there were places we could have done better on turnout. But the main problem is not turnout. The main problem is that many people who voted for Trump/Vance in 2024 voted for Democrats in 2026. There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is. One of the pollsters I really respect told me that our economic messaging wasn’t sharp enough down the stretch. I’m sure that’s true. But the real reason we lost is obvious to almost everyone. Another pollster—one of the smartest people I know in politics, told me yesterday we’d lose the generic ballot by 13 points. I felt negative going into Tuesday, but even I was shocked by this. In his polling, he saw that a lot of Trump 2024 voters were angry and planning to vote for Democrats. He asked those voters who had abandoned us what would cause them to come back on our team. The top four answers, accounting for nearly all of the responses were: 1) End the war 2) Focus on cost of living/inflation 3) Put America First 4) Change our relationship to Israel Our voters showed up. And the above four reasons are why many of them voted for Democrats. This is according to a pollster who nailed the results. While many spent Monday attacking Rachel Campos Duffy for calling for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict, it turns out her political advice was sound. (She’s also a great person.) In the next few months, there's going to be a lot of gaslighting. Expect to hear any number of establishment politicians say the solution to our woes is amnesty. I'm open to the idea that we should change enforcement—by focusing more on businesses that hire illegal labor, for instance. But anyone pushing amnesty is lying to you. The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night. If you'd like to argue it was worth it, that losing the Senate for the next 6 years was worth it, then do so. Argue it was a worthwhile cost to pay. Agree or disagree, that's at least honest. But everyone knows why we lost. And any honest conversation about where we go from here must start there. I remain hopeful about our country. To the people who are pissed off and want to say, “I told you so”: you’re right, you did tell us so. Take that energy into electing Republicans who share your worldview. To the people who are just pissed at the results, you should be. Let’s take that anger and get back to the work of saving our country.

this is so bleak

Sicherheitspolitisch ist RGR am Ende. In der Bundeshauptstadt sollen Jugendoffiziere der @BMVg_Bundeswehr nicht mehr von Schulen eingeladen werden dürfen. Was deren Aufgabe ist, davon hat RGR wohl keine Ahnung. Aber Bundeswehr gegen „Demokratiebildung“ ausspielen. Putin freut‘s.

"Das Verbrenner-Aus ist dann damit Geschichte", so Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz zur Einigung über die zukünftige Politik gegenüber der Automobilindustrie zwischen Deutschland und Frankreich. "Ich bin sehr dankbar, dass uns das gelungen ist", so Merz.

Today’s statements on Ukraine exposed a fundamental divide within Europe’s new right, and its 3 political groups: 1. Marine Le Pen (Patriots) wants France to stop funding Ukraine and lift sanctions on Russia. 2. Alice Weidel (AfD, ESN) wants Germany to stop financing what she calls an already lost war. Both positions play into Putin’s hands and weaken Europe’s own security. 3. Giorgia Meloni (ECR), by contrast, reaffirmed Italy’s support for Ukraine and warned against weakening sanctions on Moscow. The European right is anything but a homogeneous political force. Treating it as one risks hiding divisions that matter enormously for Europe’s future.

This should dispel any doubts as to whether the Brandmauer is being imposed on the AfD – to keep them out of power. They embrace it. “We are standing not to work with the CDU but to destroy the CDU.” AfD town hall in Mücheln.

Former President Obama says Democrats made a mistake by making goals materialistic and instrumental: "What people are starved for at the moment is the ability to tell a moral and ethical story about how we live together in this moment."

🇩🇪 Jürgen Klopp trägt auf der Pk diese Kappe und sagt: „Ich möchte die Fahne zurückholen. Ich will nicht, dass wenn sie einer schwenkt, jemand denkt: was ist mit dir nicht in Ordnung.“ „Ich hätte schon ganz gerne, dass man glücklich ist, dass wir in diesem wundervollen Land leben. Ich möchte den Nationalstolz nicht den falschen Leuten überlassen. Positiver Patriotismus - gerne!“ @SkySportDE

Ulrich Siegmund äußert sich hier zum Einsatz der Bundeswehr für die geplante Abschiebeoffensive. Die Empörung ist groß. Fakt ist: Selbstverständlich kann die Bundeswehr im Rahmen der Amtshilfe für Abschiebeflüge eingesetzt werden. Und so geht’s: Für Abschiebungen von ausreisepflichtigen "Flüchtlingen" ist grundsätzlich die Landesregierung zuständig. Die setzt dafür die jeweilige Landespolizei ein. Ab dem Flughafenbereich übernimmt die Bundespolizei, weil die Zuständigkeit für Flughafen und Luftraum Bundesangelegenheit ist. Die Bundespolizei wiederum muss Charterflüge in Anspruch nehmen, weil ihr die entsprechenden eigenen Einsatzmittel (Flugzeuge) fehlen. Statt Flugzeuge zu chartern, kann die Bundespolizei den benötigten Lufttransportraum (LTrspR) auch über den Weg der Amtshilfe (Art. 35 GG) bei der Bundeswehr beantragen. Die Bundeswehr kann dafür z.B. A400M zur Verfügung zu stellen. Wichtig: Die Bundeswehr übernimmt bei Abschiebeflügen keine polizeilichen Aufgaben. Diese verbleiben bei der Bundespolizei. Lediglich die Entscheidung über den Einsatz des Luftfahrzeugs verbleibt beim Kapitän. Etwaige Regelungslücken in der Zusammenarbeit von Bundespolizei und Bundeswehr sind leicht zu schließen. Eine Grundgesetzänderung ist nicht nötig.