@matasar

I once walked off the end of a pier. he/him

 Portland, OR
xitter.cf/matasar/status/580844721817292800
Joined November 2007
  • Tweets55.6K
  • Following741
  • Followers2.9K
4.1KMedia
Very little Electoral College bias in 2024: When the NYT Needle estimates shut down, Trump was on track for a 1.5 point national popular vote win. His margins in PA/MI/WI ranged from 1.1 points to 2.1 points. Pennsylvania was the tipping point state that got Trump to an Electoral College majority.
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ABC News has projected that Proposition 139, protecting abortion rights, will pass in Arizona, overturning the state's 15-week ban. Similar measures have also passed in Colorado and Maryland, where abortion was already legal.
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Ben Matasar retweeted
Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle176 Nov 2024
Donald Trump is probably the favorite to win the popular vote at this point. I can't say many in either party would have expected this outcome even a year ago.
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Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle176 Nov 2024
Pretty clear picture emerging in the rust belt. In whatever's completed, Harris is just underrunning Biden all across the board, no matter the region or the demographic. Now we wait to see what it looks like in the remaining suburban and urban vote, but she'll need a big swing.
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Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn6 Nov 2024
Still very early, but in counties where 90%+ is reporting there's a pretty clear pattern that Trump is holding or improving upon his 2020 margins in rural areas.
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Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn5 Nov 2024
Florida, Georgia, and Virginia are known for counting their ballots *very* quickly. So if you have stuff to do, do it in the next 12 minutes.
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Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn5 Nov 2024
Tapping the sign
Adam Carlson
@admcrlsn5 Nov 2024
Another word of caution: The first round of exit polls that are released to the public (5pm ET) are almost always wrong/off base in some way, and are revised later after all the votes have been counted. Do not necessarily treat them as gospel.
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This was a fun thing about living in San Francisco.
Emily Dreyfuss@EmilyDreyfuss5 Nov 2024
I love voting in San Francisco because my polling place is my neighbor's garage. Our city will never not be just a little weird.
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He doesn’t know anything. Ignore him.
Charlie Kirk
@charliekirk115 Nov 2024
Turnout is mixed and not where we want it to be. We need more people to vote. We can't let turnout flatline. Text everyone you know. Make more noise. We need more.
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Ben Matasar retweeted
Xenocrypt@xenocryptsite5 Nov 2024
Totally true, nobody knows a single damn thing until actual numbers come in this evening. There will be a lot of totally useless stuff about long lines until then and I just ignore all of it.
Greg Giroux@greggiroux5 Nov 2024
"Election Day is its own special type of hell. If you've never worked on a campaign, you might think it would be the most hectic day of the campaign. In reality, it's the opposite." -- @Lis_Smith in "Any Given Tuesday"
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Over the next 48 hours, some of you will treat predictors who said 52/48 like gods and predictors who said 48/52 like morons, and I want to say in advance how deeply I hate you.
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Max
@maxtmcc4 Nov 2024
you may have grown tired of early vote analysis. the good news is that it’s over. the bad news is that we’re about to hear from its more insufferable older brother: Anecdotal Election Day Turnout Analysis
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This is correct
Holden
@Holden1144 Nov 2024
If 50% of the country is terrified that other team may win the Presidency that's a sign the power of President should be reduced.
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Replying to @duckdb
@duckdb-gsheets is live! read & write google sheets in pure SQL no one can stop you FWAHAHAHAHA
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Xenocrypt@xenocryptsite4 Nov 2024
(Also election nights can be crushingly boring so manually copying results is like, something to do. You remember election nights as roller coasters but there's so much "reloading a webpage designed in 2006".)
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The needle rises
New York Times Tech Guild@NYTGuildTech4 Nov 2024
We are on ULP strike. We gave @nytimes management months of notice of our strike deadline, we made ourselves available around the clock, but the company has decided that our members aren’t worth enough to agree to a fair contract and stop committing unfair labor practices.
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This is actually a pretty stand up thing to do.
MIRS.news@MIRSnews4 Nov 2024
Replying to @MIRSnews
CORRECTION: Mitchell DID NOT resample in new poll that now shows Harris, Slotkin +2. He acknowledges Detroit, women and African Americans under sampled. "Every poll we conducted --- including this one --- was weighted exactly the same."
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Sean is a very good analyst.
Sean T at RCP
@SeanTrende3 Nov 2024
The bottom line is what it's been for a while: The bulk of the publicly available data is consistent with a close election. That doesn't mean it *will* be close, and one of the frustrating things about this job is partisans who are irresponsible with data are right half the time.
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Ben Matasar retweeted
Lakshya Jain
@lxeagle173 Nov 2024
And as @maxtmcc and I wrote today, there is a long history of Selzer being right when nobody else was. So this isn’t me saying she’s wrong — only that somebody is going to look very stupid at the end of election night. Her, or everyone else. split-ticket.org/2024/11/02/…

The Case For (And Against) A Kamala Harris Victory

With just three days to go until election day, our forecast remains that the presidency is a pure tossup, with Kamala Harris at a 53% chance to win and Donald Trump at a 47% chance to win. Harris i…

split-ticket.org
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