Mark Wittman

The data center boom is a useful humility check for climate/energy wonks. A lot of 2050-style planning implicitly assumed we could know future energy demand well enough to centrally plan the “right” decarbonization pathway. But new things happen. Sometimes big things. And there are probably more to come. Climate world used the appearance of modelable certainty as a substitute for political realism. We found modeled pathways where climate goals looked achievable and socially acceptable. Then we mistook support for those specific scenarios as broad buy-in for climate as an overriding priority. But society does not primarily optimize for climate. It wants growth, convenience, security, novelty. True abundance. So when conditions changed, and “the plan” started conflicting with those priorities, society did what it was always going to do. It chose its actual priorities. That should not shock us. This is why it is possible for the Biden-era high (or what felt like one to many) to have so quickly turned the other way. It was always very fragile. The job is not to design a great climate plan that relieves your anxiety and then wait for society to get on board. The job is to relentlessly work on climate solutions that society wants anyway, no matter the situation we find ourselves in. Be nimble, keep pushing things forward, and over a lifetime you’ll make a big difference.