Some thoughts on the bipartisan passage of the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act. —Don’t expect sweeping new US sanctions. This legislation codifies into law fairly comprehensive sanctions that could have otherwise been lifted overnight, perhaps as part of a bad deal with Russia. That is its (enormous) value, because even if the admin issues temporary waivers, banks and companies that enforce sanctions know this is permanent US law. The risk of facilitating Russian sanctions evasion is much higher now. —The tariff provision is rightly controversial. But it is legally a lot more restrictive than many critics have suggested. And let’s be honest: The threat of 100% tariffs from Trump is a lot more credible and scary for Russia’s top five partners than the threat of a new complicated targeted sanctions strategy from Trump. It could actually change their behavior. They’ve had years to stop funding Russia’s brutal war, so zero sympathy. —Not passing this legislation, whatever shape it was in, would have broadcast appalling American weakness to the Kremlin and the world. —Everyone has a gripe with something about this bill while recognizing the importance of its objective. The negotiations and criticism that went into it were good for it. So a good night for US bipartisanship, as well as US policy towards both Russia and Ukraine. —I’m really proud that so many of our @HelsinkiComm Members led the push to get this done. 🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦