Joined October 2021
Marko - if you had a strong argument, you wouldn't have to resort to such crude commentary.
Replying to @markoinny
Marko - if you had a strong argument, you wouldn't have to resort to such crude commentary. The Treasury Secretary explicitly said the goal was to get the 10-year treasury yield under 4%. He said tariffs were part of the plan. The tariff announcements over the last 2 months have helped drive the 10-year under 4%. They called their shot and then delivered.
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Marko retweeted
Binaries are basically open source now.
We all knew this was coming… but today I heard about it actually happening. A seed stage company backed by a well known VC openly admitted (in a board deck) that their strategy is to get access to a large incumbent’s software from a customer, clone the entire thing using Claude Code, and offer it at 90% less. Not “build something better.” Just copy it and offer it for less. The VC endorsed this as the GTM strategy. And even wrote back in writing that it was a good idea. Using a customer’s licensed access to reverse engineer a product and clone it is ethically bankrupt. I don’t know how else to put it. It likely violates terms of service. It may violate trade secret law as well (but I’m certainly not a lawyer). And a reputable VC putting this in writing in a board deck is genuinely insane. But it’s going to happen anyway. Everywhere… all the time. I don’t know where this ends, but we all knew this was coming and now it’s here.
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Trump & Hegseth are reportedly preventing law enforcement from investigating domestic terrorist attacks linked to the war with Iran. With public support for the war extremely low, the implication is hard to ignore. Historically, US wars tend to gain public support only after Americans believe the violence has reached their own soil. The "rally around the flag" that followed 9/11. According to Pew, support for war with Iraq was around 15% before 9/11. After the attacks, it eventually climbed to about 75%. It’s unsettling to consider what people with personalities like Trump and Hegseth (men who routinely react to criticism with thin skin and temper) might be willing to "let happen" in order to transform themselves from insecure war crime architects into brave wartime leaders.
NEW: The White House is blocking the FBI and top US intelligence agencies from warning law enforcement across the country about new terror threats to the homeland tied to the war with Iran. My latest with @spccohen for @Daily_MailUS dailymail.co.uk/news/article…
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Marko retweeted
Had to look it up because it seemed to insane to be real Yeah Literally went in, stole a bunch of 9/11 documents and delivered them to Epstein Got 2 years of probation for it (typically this level of espionage is considered treason) WHAT THE FUCK
Not only did Sandy Berger fly to Epstein island two weeks after his conviction… Apparently ONE day after his sentencing on Sept. 8, 2005 - for stealing and destroying some National Archive documents relating to 9/11 - Jeffery Epstein overnighted Sandy Berger a FedEx package, which was signed for the next morning.
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-А знаешь как в Америке называют СВО? -Они не называют СВО - СВО? -Прикинь! У них это Special Combat Operation -Да ты угараешь -Клянусь, так и есть
JUST IN: White House officials clarify Operation Epic Fury isn't a war, but a special "combat operation"
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good to be back
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'look i know i fumbled this cycle by not selling again and i know i missed the entire metals and semiconductors and energy trade but ive been experimenting with opencla...' 'peter im getting married'
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You'll miss the American, who deals sharply but cheats no one, who is tougher than the thugs and cleverer than the tricksters, who says "I can do it" when others shrug, and who respects learning but is suspicious of those claiming to be learned, when the last one dies.
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I'm skeptical of the "less safe but performant low level languages like C/assembly will become more prominent" take. If you need (e.g.) memory safety, either the type system ensures it for you or you (whether human or model) has to be careful/think about it at every relevant line. Models might be better at being careful than humans, but not infinitely so, and the extra reasoning effort to do so is a distraction from the real task. There's another argument that you should just write the fast code in the unsafe language and do a bunch of static analysis/manual triage after to avoid the downside. This never worked that well when humans were doing it (forget to run, slow to slog through lots of false positives even when the tool is very good). At that point, why not just use the language that has the properties you want and fearlessly (h/t Rust) use your reasoning budget to make the code fast instead? I think language safety, strong type systems, and other forms of ironclad guarantees that humans/models can assume without thinking about it are more valuable than ever. xitter.cf/Thom_Wolf/status/20233… makes a good case
Shifting structures in a software world dominated by AI. Some first-order reflections (TL;DR at the end): Reducing software supply chains, the return of software monoliths – When rewriting code and understanding large foreign codebases becomes cheap, the incentive to rely on deep dependency trees collapses. Writing from scratch ¹ or extracting the relevant parts from another library is far easier when you can simply ask a code agent to handle it, rather than spending countless nights diving into an unfamiliar codebase. The reasons to reduce dependencies are compelling: a smaller attack surface for supply chain threats, smaller packaged software, improved performance, and faster boot times. By leveraging the tireless stamina of LLMs, the dream of coding an entire app from bare-metal considerations all the way up is becoming realistic. End of the Lindy effect – The Lindy effect holds that things which have been around for a long time are there for good reason and will likely continue to persist. It's related to Chesterton's fence: before removing something, you should first understand why it exists, which means removal always carries a cost. But in a world where software can be developed from first principles and understood by a tireless agent, this logic weakens. Older codebases can be explored at will; long-standing software can be replaced with far less friction. A codebase can be fully rewritten in a new language. ² Legacy software can be carefully studied and updated in situations where humans would have given up long ago. The catch: unknown unknowns remain unknown. The true extent of AI's impact will hinge on whether complete coverage of testing, edge cases, and formal verification is achievable. In an AI-dominated world, formal verification isn't optional—it's essential. The case for strongly typed languages – Historically, programming language adoption has been driven largely by human psychology and social dynamics. A language's success depended on a mix of factors: individual considerations like being easy to learn and simple to write correctly; community effects like how active and welcoming a community was, which in turn shaped how fast its ecosystem would grow; and fundamental properties like provable correctness, formal verification, and striking the right balance between dynamic and static checks—between the freedom to write anything and the discipline of guarding against edge cases and attacks. As the human factor diminishes, these dynamics will shift. Less dependence on human psychology will favor strongly typed, formally verifiable and/or high performance languages.³ These are often harder for humans to learn, but they're far better suited to LLMs, which thrive on formal verification and reinforcement learning environments. Expect this to reshape which languages dominate. Economic restructuring of open source – For decades, open-source communities have been built around humans finding connection through writing, learning, and using code together. In a world where most code is written—and perhaps more importantly, read—by machines, these incentives will start to break down.⁴ Communities of AIs building libraries and codebases together will likely emerge as a replacement, but such communities will lack the fundamentally human motivations that have driven open source until now. If the future of open-source development becomes largely devoid of humans, alignment of AI models won't just matter—it will be decisive. The future of new languages – Will AI agents face the same tradeoffs we do when developing or adopting new programming languages? Expressiveness vs. simplicity, safety vs. control, performance vs. abstraction, compile time vs. runtime, explicitness vs. conciseness. It's unclear that they will. In the long term, the reasons to create a new programming language will likely diverge significantly from the human-driven motivations of the past. There may well be an optimal programming language for LLMs—and there's no reason to assume it will resemble the ones humans have converged on. TL; DR: - Monoliths return – cheap rewriting kills dependency trees; smaller attack surface, better performance, bare-metal becomes realistic - Lindy effect weakens – legacy code loses its moat, but unknown unknowns persist; formal verification becomes essential - Strongly typed languages rise – human psychology mattered for adoption; now formal verification and RL environments favor types over ergonomics - Open source restructures – human connection drove the community; AI-written/read code breaks those incentives; alignment becomes decisive - New languages diverge – AI may not share our tradeoffs; optimal LLM programming languages may look nothing like what humans converged on ¹ xitter.cf/mntruell/status/201282… ² xitter.cf/anthropicai/status/201… ³ wesmckinney.com/blog/agent-e… ⁴ github.com/tailwindlabs/tail…
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Openclaw founder reveals he almost deleted the entire codebase because of crypto. "I didn't know that they're not just good at harassment, they are also really good at using scripts and tools. I underestimated those people. Honestly, I was that close to just deleting it."
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Replying to @jackfriks
a lion doesn't concern itself with token counting
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Wrapping up my time at Mysten today. Grateful for the ride, excited for what's next. It's been a good run 🫡
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Putting a generational talent currency trader in charge of the Treasury is perhaps Trump’s most genius hiring decision, and its consequences dwarf all the others in importance for the future of American power and prosperity.
BREAKING: Russia is considering moving back to the US Dollar as part of a wide-ranging economic partnership with President Trump, per Bloomberg. The partnership would include: 1. US and Russia working together on fossil fuels 2. Joint investments in natural gas 3. Offshore oil and critical raw material partnerships 4. Windfalls for US companies 5. Russia’s return to the USD settlement system If finalized, this deal would change the global economy.
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“Codex is way better than Claude Code” “Claude Code is better. Have you even shipped anything?” “No, have you?” “No”
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wait this graph is crazy BART installed anti-fare-hopping gates and the amount of station maintenance and cleanup they had to do went to basically zero strong evidence that the poor condition of public transit is fairly easy to fix + caused by a very small group of people
Replying to @maxdubler
And there are other real benefits such as fewer corrective maintenance requests and time spent cleaning and fixing things.
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>mogging >creatine >experimental chinese compounds >mewing we are living in 2011 bodybuilding dot com times and my culture is not your costume
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Marko retweeted
More 5.3 takes: closed source is over. If you ship binaries, your code is now available.
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Marko retweeted
average $500k TC software engineer in SF post-Claude Code
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Big deal. China has finished the market share chase and is consolidating its position. Fifteenth Five Year Plan will be largely about becoming rich and developed in an undeniable way, no Doggy-style PPP adjustments needed.
Tidbits from China trip: Confidence matters, and it feels like people have largely made peace with the (post 2020/21) new normal. Coffee shops are packed again. Consumer energy is back, and sentiment feels calm, even quietly hopeful. A key driver is the wealth effect: the Shanghai index is up 50% from the Oct-2024 lows and has steadily reached its highest level since 2015. On tech, research talent is genuinely world-class. VCs are "employed" again - IC cadence has gone from 2–3 deals a month to ~20 a week. Valuations are rising, and the IPO window looks at least as open - arguably more open - than in the US. Beijing is deliberately ending “involution.” One underappreciated move is the rollback of export-side support. Starting 4/1/2026, China is cutting export VAT rebates in key categories: solar PV goes from 9% to 0% immediately, with batteries seeing similar treatment. The implication is less dumping, faster consolidation, and fewer survivors. China is shifting from exporting deflation to exporting inflation, while pulling itself out of a deflationary spiral. Real estate is still washed out, but a path to stabilization is visible. If mortgage rates reset toward ~3% and rental yields drift toward ~2%, carry becomes roughly neutral. That’s typically the point where transaction velocity returns and sentiment stops deteriorating. Healthcare is moving from me-too toward best-in-class. China has aligned more closely with global drug-development standards, improving predictability and baseline quality across trials, CMC, and filings. The combination of talent and manufacturing/process engineering is a durable advantage. Clinically, large patient pools, dense hospital networks, and a mature CRO ecosystem enable faster enrollment and iteration - speed that translates into a real edge in reaching best-in-class outcomes. The most cited investment themes were Consumer Hardware, Aerospace, Robotics, and Domestic Chip Substitution. Each could produce multiple multi-baggers, and the A-share market is increasingly welcoming to tech companies - "you invest/ work in sectors that's encouraged by Beijing". Consumer hardware is shifting from pure supply chain to product definition and global branding. Over 80% of Kickstarter launches now come from Chinese teams. Companies like Bambu Lab, EcoFlow, and Insta360 show China can win globally with strong product and software. Voice is far more dominant than in the US. I heard estimates that ~30% of Doubao queries are voice. In EVs - now over 80% of new car sales - voice is the default UI. Daily life is also far more contactless. Boarding and identity checks feel closer to “walk through” than “show documents.” +++ LLM deep dive (see post below) +++ full article on China observations: open.substack.com/pub/robono…
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Marko retweeted
AI capex & capabilities exploding, AI-related stocks (hardware & software) oddly tumbling, Bitcoin/gold/silver etc crashing (but dollar rallying), etc; also OPM just finalized rules this morning allowing Trump to reclassify the most important 50k civil servants as at-will workers
Today will go down as some kind of turning point. Somewhat arbitrarily, but it is OK if journalists and historians have to present things in that manner.
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this chart feels like the those stats at the beginning of covid. "who cares about 400 cases in seattle? and why are all the epidemiologists buying toilet paper?"
4% of GitHub public commits are being authored by Claude Code right now. At the current trajectory, we believe that Claude Code will be 20%+ of all daily commits by the end of 2026. While you blinked, AI consumed all of software development. Read more 👇 newsletter.semianalysis.com/…
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