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Partner at Bittensor Fund @stillcorecap Hash Rate podcast
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Hash Rate - Ep. 186: Cascade Prediction SN91
🧙 Guest: @tensorlink_dev @macrozack of @cascade_sn91
00:00 Introduction to Cascade Subnet 91
09:24 The grammar of 'universal prediction'
12:08 Data efficiency and advantages of small models
14:15 Proving models in the field and future applications
17:42 Deployment, API, and community engagement
19:45 Future plans, competitions, and use cases
22:54 Forecasting tools for the Bittensor ecosystem
28:16 Hosting models on SayGM
29:54 Chris Haymes' background
39:51 Integration with Hermes Agent
50:23 Impact of recent emission changes
56:46 Closing remarks and next steps in AI prediction
This is amazing.
Well-explained @JesusMartinez
I was in the audience for this -- an extremely powerful presentation.
(and I'm not a fan of this guy after what he did to @travisk)
Venture capitalist Bill Gurley says he is not afraid of AI doom when nobody can explain what COVID already did
"COVID 19 caused 15 million deaths, disrupted every life on the planet, and cost our globe $45 trillion. It was particularly hard on children. You've read about learning loss"
"My kids were in high school and college and missed three years of the most formative years of your life. I never want to live through this thing again in my life"
"For all the other catastrophes, I told you what root cause is. 6 years later, we don't know"
"So forgive me if I'm unafraid of what some AI guy's chatbot is going to do to humanity when you can't tell me what this thing already did"
"My P second COVID is way higher than my p-doom. And if their models are so smart, tell me what happened here. Let's get them working on this problem."
Mark Jeffrey retweeted
Been working 12hrs+ a day again, a lot of inefficiencies in the AI space
Probably one of the last times in our lifetime where you can change wealth class before AGI/ASI arrives
Its time to go retard
Still not quite grokking Jev, but this has definitely gotten me closer:
LLMs vs. Jev, clearly explained!
TL;DR
The key difference is not that Jev generates faster.
Jev does not generate text at all.
A traditional LLM receives context and produces an answer one token at a time. Even when the output is a small JSON object, every token depends on those generated before it.
Jev receives the same context but evaluates predefined decisions directly. When those decisions are independent, it can evaluate all of them in parallel.
Consider an agent handling a failed deployment. It may need to determine:
→ Whether the incident is urgent
→ Which team should handle it
→ Whether the proposed command is risky
→ Whether the task is complete
An LLM generates a response containing these answers sequentially. The application then parses and validates it.
With Jev, you define the questions and expected answer types upfront. It evaluates them together and returns typed answers with probabilities.
Jev supports three decision primitives:
1. **Choice** selects from known options, such as engineering, billing, or sales.
2. **Score** places the input on an ordered scale, such as low, medium, or high risk.
3. **Noul** evaluates a yes-or-no condition and returns the probability that it is true.
The probabilities matter as much as the selected answers.
If engineering receives 91% probability and billing receives 9%, automatic routing may be reasonable. If the probabilities are 52% and 48%, the system can escalate, gather more context, or call a stronger model.
This keeps control inside ordinary software.
Code owns the thresholds and consequences. Jev supplies the semantic judgment that a normal `if` statement cannot derive from unstructured text.
It works best when the possible answers are known, the decision depends on meaning, and a careful person could judge the input quickly.
It is not designed for writing, summarization, code generation, arithmetic, or decisions requiring several dependent reasoning steps. Independent questions can run in parallel, but decisions that depend on earlier results must remain sequential.
Jev also cannot return an option outside the declared schema, but it can still select the wrong valid option. Type safety prevents malformed outputs, not incorrect judgments.
The clean mental model is this:
LLMs generate new language when the answer space is open.
Jev evaluates known paths when the answer space is bounded.
I wrote the full breakdown explaining Jev and where it fits.
The article is quoted below.
people overestimate what can happen in a year and underestimate what can happen in 2, 5 or 10
over the last two weeks I had confirmations at so many levels that we were playing the right playbook at the right place and the right time, with the right team.
1. IBC Amsterdam and NRF Paris confirmed the need for a real open vision AI alternative (and made us proud of our models’ quality and efficiency).
2. the current petrol station rollout confirmed that Manako was plug-and-play and ready to be installed at the speed of light (5 mins process from box opening to live deployment)
in june I didn’t know any of that. did you?
maybe they were right after all , maybe it all happens at once
Mark Jeffrey retweeted
Thanks to President Trump’s leadership on AI:
— a million new jobs have been created around the AI buildout;
— 401(k)s are up ~12% this year as AI capex and productivity lift the market;
— America is re-industrializing, including the first large private investments in power generation and the grid in a generation;
— In rural Richland Parish, Louisiana, teachers just received $50,000 bonuses from data-center tax revenue.
Because the media portrays AI only as a menace, people tell pollsters they “don’t like AI.” Their behavior says otherwise. AI products are the fastest-adopted technology in history — faster than the internet or the iPhone. People like the tools, the jobs, and the tax base.
President Trump understands the media hoax cycle better than anyone else. That is why he is refusing the “pause” that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are demanding. A pause would not make America safer. It would hand the frontier to China. That would be a disaster for the American economy and for national security.
Mark Jeffrey retweeted
Crypto is looking pretty good here.
- It just shrugged off a rate hike and failure of CLARITY cloture vote.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows growing week over week.
- Short positions got repudiated by buyers.
- Still in the June/July uptrend in Bitcoin.
- ZEC, UNI, NEAR surviving/thriving with 125%+ 30-day returns.
Mark Jeffrey retweeted
This is what the cartel fears.
This is why they need to engineer a safety panic to ban and achieve regulatory capture.
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:
🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%
While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2).
(Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)
RT @chamath: Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source.
Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve…
This quoted post is unavailable.
Two Bittensor subnets:
- Computer vision from Score SN44 (distributed by Price Waterhouse Coopers)
- ... now uses (earth's cheapest) storage from Hippius SN75
When subnets stack, the cost savings multiply.
We've partnered with @webuildscore on the launch of Score Studio.
Every account created on Score Studio gets storage powered by Hippius, included automatically. No extra setup needed. One less thing to think about while you're labeling, training, and deploying.
Congrats to the Score team on the launch.
Mark Jeffrey retweeted
Open models continue taking share. Not just tokens, more $ now spent on open models than OpenAI.
Positive for the AI infra trade.
Open models taking share shift $ margin from the model layer to the infra and app layers.
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway:
🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6%
While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2).
(Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)
This is amazing.
NEAR AI is now on a Bittensor subnet -- @say_gm_ -- which is our version of OpenRouter (done as a subnet).
Bittensor is very synergistic with many of the other decentralized AI efforts afoot, not competitive.
We're rowing in the same direction.
NEAR AI Cloud's confidential inference is now live on @say_gm_'s confidential tier.
SayGm reaches dozens of models through one API key, and runs its own routing inside an Intel TDX enclave rather than on ordinary servers.
How to think of Bittensor $TAO versus Bitcoin:
"I like to get involved in projects that I think are transformative and have 100x, 500x, 1,000x type return opportunities" @BarrySilbert
"Unless the US dollar completely collapses.. #Bitcoin is not going to go up 500x"
"I think a #Bittensor can go up 500x and so our portfolio is allocated accordingly"
$TAO
Mark Jeffrey retweeted
Before You Buy Bittensor bittensor:native at $270, Watch This
0:00 TAO's Breakout Against Bitcoin
5:27 Why Bittensor Is Different
11:47 Where the Money Goes Next
15:23 NEAR, Privacy and AI
18:17 Why TAO Wins On Solana
22:01 The Subnet Opportunity