My top 5 straits:
5. #StraitOfHormuz (Persian Gulf-> Arabian Sea)
4. Bering Strait (Arctic Ocean-> Bering Sea)
3. Dover Strait (English Channel-> North Sea)
2. Strait of Gibraltar (Atlantic-> Mediterranean)
1. Dire Straits. “Sultans of Swing”…enough said.
$WMT a huge number of June 2025 $76.67 and $73.33 strike puts were bought this afternoon. $WMT trading at ~$95.30 when trades hit the tape. Big bearish bet on a consumer bellwether. #stocks #stockmarket #Walmart
2 interesting bullish options trades today: (1) $AEO 2.5K next week risk reversals, sell $17 puts to buy $20 calls, stock closed $19.61, 2) $EBIX 3.5K Jan 2024 $10 calls bought, stock closed $5.15. #stocks #stockmarket #trading #investing
3 interesting bullish options trades in past 24 hrs: (1) $FIVN 4K December $85-$100 call spreads bought w/ stock ~$70; (2) $SNY 5K December $50 calls bought w/ stock ~$46; (3) $IGT 20K December $30-$33 call spreads bought w/ stock ~$27. #stocks #stockmarket #trading #investing
Interesting (and unsatisfactory) that @FanDuel is official sports betting partner of @PGATOUR, yet @DKSportsbook is offering a lot more in the way of live golf betting for the #ValsparChampionship, including hole-by-hole bets, which @FanDuel sometimes offers. Why not today?
S&P 500 Sector Est. 2020 EPS % ch.: Health Care 25.5%
Energy 22.2%
Materials 19.3%
Info. Tech. 15.8%
Consumer Discretionary14.7%
Communication Services 13.9%
Industrials 12.4%
S&P 500 11.0%
Consumer Staples 7.1%
Utilities5.3%
Financials-5.2%
Real Estate-14.7
(Source: S&P)
Growth back to beating value in US, at least for now — VUG (Vanguard Growth ETF) vs. VTV (Vanguard Value ETF) — 1 month -1.9% vs. -2.0%, 3 months -1.0% vs. -2.5%, 6 months +3.6% vs. +0.9%, 12 months +6.4% vs. +0.5% #stocks
Worth a read
Recession fears are overblown. The yield curve is no longer a reliable predictor, and other economic indicators are strong, write @AndyPuzder and @Jon_Hartley
on.wsj.com/2zcvhrB
10Y US Treasury yield now 1.50%, lowest since ~1.35% in 2016. 30Y yield 1.94%, lowest in history today. Good time to refi.
Today, 10Y minus 2Y spread dipped below 0 for first time since 2007. Also, US rates continue to fall, with US 30Y yield setting all-time low (2.02%). Next Fed meeting 9/18/19, chance of 25 bp cut basically 100% and chance of 50 bp cut rising (market implying ~30% currently).
Current US Treasury 10Y minus 2Y yield spread is down to 3 bps (1.69% - 1.66%). That spread going <0 is an early warning of #recession and a bad sign for #stocks, though the S&P 500 has typically peaked months after this spread inverts.
Current US Treasury 10Y minus 2Y yield spread is down to 3 bps (1.69% - 1.66%). That spread going <0 is an early warning of #recession and a bad sign for #stocks, though the S&P 500 has typically peaked months after this spread inverts.
Bank of America says stocks are on "borrowed time" once the spread between 2- and 10-year Treasury yields invert bloom.bg/2yTIyVM
Interesting that most recent AAII survey indicates most bearish sentiment reading since December 2018. aaii.com/sentimentsurvey