just another investor with an opinion or two
Joined November 2022
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marginofdanger retweeted
If @marginofdanger hunch is correct about $fmbl possibly putting the forsale sign in the yard, the premium it would fetch would be historic. At the very least they should step up retuning capital to shareholders.
marginofdanger retweeted
$HHH These results are outstanding, unsurprisingly to anyone that's been paying close attention to this story at a fundamental level. Easy to get lost trying piece together all of Ackman's motivations, but I have no doubt part of this boils down to his recognition of the arrival of a major inflection point in cash flow generation and wanting more of it to himself. This update certainly makes his proposal look even more ridiculous.
investor.howardhughes.com/ne…
marginofdanger retweeted
I recommend that every $HHH shareholder reach out to Eric Holcomb ([email protected]), head of investor relations at HHH to share your feedback regarding the Pershing Square proposal.
Eric will ensure that the feedback is shared with the special committee evaluating the offer.
My perspective is similar to other feedback/analysis that has been shared on X. The offer is unambiguously bad for HHH shareholders and serves Bill Ackman and his GP (the GP receives a 1.5% management fee forever!)
HHH's business is firing on all cylinders and free cash flow generation is about to inflect higher. All that cash can be used to buy back stock at a massive discount to NAV.
If a credible offer from Pershing or another partner is made, the Special Committee should evaluate it. But absent this, the company should continue with its current strategy and pour excess free cash flow generation into share buybacks.
marginofdanger retweeted
marginofdanger retweeted
Another cement plant take-out announced yesterday. Heidelsberg Cement acquiring a coastal single-cement plant asset, Giant Cement, for $600M, or 10x the next year's expected EBITDA.
This seems to set a floor valuation for $MCEM (Monarch Cement) previously written that is 51% higher than prior close.
The math is that $MCEM should do $105M+ of EBITDA next year and has $140M of net cash and investments. With a 3.6m share count, 10x EBITDA implies $330 per share.
$MCEM would likely command a prior as its inland location allows it more protection from imports vs a coastal plant, and allows for greater pricing power.
marginofdanger retweeted
despite @BillAckman more or less shutting it down, continue to see speculation of transaction between $PSH and $HHH. I don't think that's going to happen. What I think would actually make more sense is a transactions between $HHH and PSCM (Pershing Square Capital Management)
marginofdanger retweeted
You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand that bank failures are going to be coming back unless we have some intervention. $KRE
marginofdanger retweeted
$OPBK OP Bancorp: Good Bank At Good Price.
*small community bank with a focus on the Korean-American community, growing tangible book value at a CAGR of 12%.
*Insiders owning 24% of the total shares outstanding *low concentration of large depositors
seekingalpha.com/article/458…
marginofdanger retweeted
Will the @SquawkCNBC hosts ask the $COIN CEO how long the Company’s business model can survive on overcharging retail customers (3% per round trip trade), while not paying them interest on their deposits?