Intel Update - Sep. 19 - Just Walk Away

//The Wire//2300Z September 18, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: EUROPEAN ENERGY CRISIS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AS WORLD LEADERS ATTEMPT TO MITIGATE EFFECTS OF DWINDLING SUPPLY. IRANIAN TARGETING ESCALATES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ. SAUDI EFFORTS TO REPAIR EAST-WEST PIPELINE CONTINUE.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Europe: Throughout the continent, various world leaders are attempting to mitigate the effects of the energy crisis, which is rapidly increasing in severity due to Saudi oil shipments being largely cut off. Italy has reduced taxes on vehicle ownership, and earlier this week Spain introduced further reductions in their tax on diesel. France has indicated the desire to hold a G7 summit dedicated to addressing the energy crisis over the coming weeks, though no specific date has been announced. Strait of Hormuz: Multiple explosions were reported overnight, as Iran struck ships attempting to transit via the Omani route. The UKMTO confirmed that at least three separate ships were targeted just north of the Musandam Peninsula, at least two of which were successfully struck last night. This afternoon, reports of 4x Iranian cruise missile launches were reported, targeting merchant vessels in the Strait. The status of these strikes is not known as of this report. Analyst Comment: The exact timing of these reports is not indicative of whether or not all of these vessels were struck on the same night; at least one of these strikes could have taken place the day prior. Regardless, the United States probably tried to get another convoy out last night via the southern Omani route, continuing efforts to export crude despite ships getting struck on every single transit. -HomeFront- USA: Around the nation, commercial airlines are continuing to draw down flights, with Southwest, United and American Airlines announcing the cancellation of some of their cheaper routes due to the rising cost of jet fuel. Nationwide, diesel prices have continued to rise with the most significant price increases being noted in the midwest, as the Joliet Refinery remains offline. Analyst Comment: Most airlines have already scaled back their flight plans, so the recent airline drawdowns are just the latest round of further belt-tightening as a result of the worsening energy crisis. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Some sources claim that Saudi Arabia has quietly requested a ceasefire with the Houthis, so that the Saudis can recover from the recent round of targeting. No one has officially acknowledged this request, and whether or not the Houthis will agree is unknown. Otherwise, repairs continue on the East-West Pipeline, with satellite imagery indicating that Aramco is trying to lay new sections of pipeline bypassing the pumping stations that were destroyed. On the diplomatic front, the Saudis have pivoted to China for diplomatic solutions to the Houthi crisis, urging China to pressure Iran, to pressure the Houthis to stop their attacks. Similarly, Pakistan has increasingly indicated that they are interested in defending Saudi Arabia, with various diplomats and military leaders "pledging full support" for the Kingdom (though no specifics have been released regarding what this might entail). So far this afternoon, missile alerts were issued for Yanbu and Jeddah, however no impacts have been reported yet. In southern and eastern Yemen, the Houthi advance continues to expand, as they consolidate the ground taken over the past few days and dig in for the long haul. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underg… NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1800Z September 14, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: DAMAGE TO SAUDI PIPELINE WORSE THAN INITIALLY SUSPECTED. SAUDI FORCES PRESENT INDICATIONS OF MILITARY ESCALATION IN YEMEN, STRIKES IN SANAA REPORTED. COSTCO BEGINS RATIONING OF KIRKLAND BRAND MOTOR OIL.// -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Saudi Arabia: Over the weekend the scale of the damage to Saudi petroleum facilities has become more clear, with high resolution satellite imagery confirming catastrophic damage at several refineries and pumping stations. To the south, the refineries close to Yemen suffered the most damage. Farther north, the East-West pipeline is also much more heavily damaged than disclosed at first, and early estimates indicate a recovery time of several weeks at minimum. Overnight, Saudi forces retaliated by conducting strikes in Sanaa. Locals report Houthi positions being struck in the Bir Zehr neighborhood near the airport, along with other sites around the capital city. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - While taking questions onboard Air Force One, President Trump was asked about Flock cameras and similar technologies. During his response, he stated that he "likes" the surveillance sensors. Analyst Comment: This is the first concrete statement indicating the current administration's stance on a major issue that has swept the nation, in the lead up to the midterms. USA: Around the nation, the impacts of the energy crisis are beginning to manifest with random shortages. Costco announced that they would be rationing purchases of motor oil, limiting purchases of their 10-quart full synthetic motor oil to two units per person, per week. Analyst Comment: Even since the early days of the war, random shortages of petroleum products have quietly been increasing in severity. Many manufacturers have changed blends (of synthetic products), and many commercial vendors have had a hard time keeping certain weights of motor oil in stock. Now that a major retailer at the consumer level is impacted, other vendors will probably follow suit. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Within Saudi Arabia, indications and warnings are growing suggesting a major Saudi campaign against the Houthis is developing. Troop movement and various armored columns have been observed along the Saudi border regions with Yemen since the United States declined to become involved in the Saudi/Houthi conflict. It's too soon to tell if the Saudis are going to launch a proper ground invasion; right now they are mostly just staging and conducting airstrikes in Sanaa. However, the United States is not fully hands-off with this conflict either; last night planewatchers observed a sharp increase in cargo flights to Camp Lemonnier...which is the central hub for most American activities in the region. This base, is also extremely close to Yemen, and well within range of even short range munitions. As the crow flies, less than a hundred miles of airspace separate this base from the Houthi missile launch sites along Yemen's Red Sea coastline. As a result, it is very likely that the United States is planning for escalations in the region, which could result in very substantial American positions being targeted. Since the Saudis have begun bombing Sanaa once again, Houthi targeting will continue to hit Saudi petroleum industry, but if the US is to become roped into this more directly, it will probably involve the American presence in Djbouti. Analyst: S2A1 Research: publish.obsidian.md/s2underg… NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//