Makelarperang.id

The United States is reportedly considering opening a ground war against the Islamic Republic through Iraq. Iraqi newspaper Al-Mada reports that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi briefed leaders of the Shiite Coordination Framework on three scenarios from a war plan reportedly presented to President Trump. One scenario would involve American forces crossing Iraqi territory to launch an operation in southern Iran. Another would involve the Islamic Republic pressuring Iraq to permit Iranian or Iran-aligned forces to advance toward Kuwait through Basra. The third scenario has not been publicly detailed. This remains unverified reporting—not an approved invasion plan. Neither Washington nor Baghdad has confirmed the scenarios, and there is no visible American deployment indicating that a major ground invasion is imminent. Al-Zaidi has also publicly pledged that Iraq will not be used to attack its neighbours. But the report shows how seriously Iraq is preparing for a renewed American war against the Islamic Republic. The United States is already pressuring Iraq to close all but two of its border crossings with Iran. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein confirmed the request, while warning that sealing the numerous official and unofficial routes would carry serious economic consequences. Iraq has already closed the busy Sheeb crossing in Maysan and tightened security along the frontier to restrict the movement of weapons, drones, money and other sanctioned materials. These measures primarily serve Washington’s campaign to economically and logistically isolate the regime. But they also reduce the Islamic Republic’s ability to move personnel and supplies through Iraq during a conflict—making them useful preparation for several military contingencies. Any ground operation would probably be limited rather than a 2003-style invasion and occupation. More plausible options include special-forces raids, temporary seizures or attacks against strategic military, energy and coastal infrastructure in southern Iran. Even a limited operation would carry enormous risks. Using Iraq as an American military corridor could activate Iran-backed Iraqi militias, destabilize al-Zaidi’s government and turn Iraq into another front in the war. It could also trigger attacks against Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and American interests throughout the region. Washington is therefore pressuring Baghdad to neutralize the militias before any wider campaign begins. Trump reportedly warned al-Zaidi that the United States would strike Iraqi factions and their leaders if they entered the war on the regime’s side. Al-Zaidi has warned militia leaders that they could be arrested if they attempt to drag Iraq into the conflict. The militias are resisting. Several factions have backed away from surrendering their weapons, arguing that they must remain armed in case fighting resumes. This planning is unfolding as diplomacy stalls. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says negotiations have not been productive and has called the regime’s demands “unacceptable,” “outrageous” and “ridiculous.” The reported ground scenario may never be approved. Border restrictions alone are not evidence that an invasion is imminent. But their appearance alongside militia disarmament demands, military contingency planning and stalled negotiations significantly raises the ceiling of what Washington may be preparing to do. The United States is no longer preparing only for airstrikes—it is reportedly examining how to open a ground front inside southern Iran.