MAJOR KEY

fwiw, ETH's implied fair value sits at 3,190$ right now this is driven by Ethereum's fee flows and especially renewed on-chain demand over the past few weeks

many pointing to short liquidations, etc – guys, price and on-chain fundamentals are highly reflexive. we've built the first science-backed valuation model for ETH and it called exactly that recovery three weeks prior !! do not neglect fundamental flows... few

You can see here, how the signal very closely mirrors the same regime April 2025, where the implied fair value for ETH rose and then market price followed suit, marking a strong bottom and a +200% rally followed. This time we see both market price and implied fair value jumping simultaneously, which strongly indicates to me, that the bottom is in for ETH and we have finished the price-based capitulation. At worst, we only have a some more of time-based capitulation ahead before we commence the next bull market. This will be a fun next few 24 months me thinks.

Well, are we so back??? Yesterday, has not only seen $ETH rally by +20%, but Ethereum has also seen +380% more fee-flows than the day before!! This is actually a great sign for fundamental economic strength of ETH. Due to reflexivity and the study in my working paper, this could ignite another phase of on-chain renaissance for the next few weeks, with the @majorkeycap 'Flow Regime Matrix' in the Terminal already having shifted into "Expansion" regime. Remember: 45 day horizon should continue to be bullish based on that data, its not only about short liquidations – this signal is purely about Ethereum's economy.

94.6% of wallets that first bought $ETH after the ETFs launched are underwater. This means every quarter from Q4 2023 to Q3 2026 averaged above today's price. The people who used to explain why you hold ETH stopped. Your favorite influencer sold, others dropped their ".eth" and many completely left. Whatever you believed about ETH, you are now the only one maintaining it. But here's the truth: we hold very little ETH. Our first-principles model has told us "overvalued" before and we published it. That is the only reason to read anything we write. We are not price-cheerleaders. The entire method is published, ungated, and not even an email is needed. Read the working paper. If the paper does not convince you, our comprehensive "Ethereum valuation framework" research report will not either. BitMine holds 5.8M ETH at an average cost of $3,105.99 and trades at 0.84× the value of what it holds. That discount is the market's valuation opinion. What is yours? majorkeycapital.com/ethereum…

BREAKING: Ethereum is currently on track to see 17.78 million transactions this week, which would place it at the fourth most active week in history! Against most consensus, activity is clearly not leaving Ethereum, it’s flourishing!! This is +37.56% more on-chain activity than last week. But overall the activity resulted so far in -28% less fee flows vs last week driven by low gas prices. Is this Ethereum‘s vision coming into reality? The clear sign however is that the implied fair value for $ETH is catching up to its market price, therefore regime has now moved from contraction to recovery.

The entire magic of outperforming most of your peers in markets relies on frameworks. You have to have a thesis and you have to continuously test it - that’s it. But allocating based on opinions or even worse, relying on narratives is not a sound investment decision. It works for trades at best, and at worst, looses you a significant portion of your portfolio. That’s why it’s always smarter to rely on metrics and constantly measure them. Up until recently there was no reliable way to do that for the 2nd biggest blockchain to date: Ethereum. Most funds and investors relied on incomplete metrics like TVL, token burn, active wallet counts, etc. Some other tracked whale wallets or other external drivers. Most could only recite narratives like 'ultrasound money' or 'ETH is money' which are hard to quantify at all. Now there’s a solution for anyone that allocates to $ETH or intends to hold it. After months of research I’ve discovered that 76.4% of ETH‘s price direction can be explained out-of-sample by its fundamental demand alone. And even 14.4% of its exact price can be computed from this new metric, which is called 'Flow Intensity'. It stems from demand-side fee/flows from Ethereum‘s on-chain economy in relation to its entire token supply. The entire methodology and working paper is free to read here: majorkeycapital.com/ethereum…

People keep asking why the open fair value for ETH isn't shown in real-time here: majorkeycapital.com/ethereum… Because if we gave the live read away for free, there's no product and also no alpha for users of the terminal — and if we called a delayed page "live," that would be dishonest. The public page has a 90-day delay, but that’s enough to prove the engine behind the model. But it’s obviously not enough to run a book or serious ETH allocation on it. The new research report as 'Ethereum valuation framework' contains the full method + the terminal charts on a 30-day delay for entire lifetime. And that’s for $199 one-time, with a 14-day money back guarantee. Obviously the terminal remains the flagship software were everything is computed in real-time block-by-block and gives you the most edge to evaluate Ethereum‘s economy. I think that's a fair trade. Interested if you see it the same way.

If you’re tired of statements like "WHALES BUYING BRO" based on external price drivers which will not hold up over the long-term, then this is for you: If you take your ETH allocation serious enough, then you need to look at what's happening to the INTERNAL FLOWS, based on Ethereum's economy and fundamental demand for its token ETH. After years of research I've built a first-principles valuation framework for Ethereum. It's science-backed with 76.4% directional accuracy over 45 days and is currently under review at Management Science journal. The entire paper is open-source and can be fact-checked.

I think the easiest way to think about any potential recovery in crypto right now, is this: the entire crypto market has been diverging into three categories. 1) The first category is memecoins, that have ever been so chased after by the trenches, with some people gotten really lucky and millions more trying to repeat their success that’s often been stemming from insider knowledge or simply luck. 2) Then there are actual on-chain businesses that have either recently been emerged (e.g. CARDS, etc) or are already well-established (e.g. AAVE, UNI, etc) and have ongoing developments around accruing value to their token much like a tokenized equity. There is still no approved regulatory framework around that and so most of their price performance hinges on the market trusting their promise. But there are still unclear questions on how the value is being distributed with some calling for full token buybacks, while others say cashflow rights are enough. 3) The last and most established category is the standalone infrastructure itself. These networks are resembling much more digital economies with their native tokens acting as digital commodities (e.g. ETH, SOL, etc). I think this is were the market is most confused and their lies great opportunity ahead, due to their established size and predictability of cycles. In my view the most reliable method to value these tokens are on their fundamental demand based on fees/flows. Anyone looking solely at token burns, TVL, active wallet counts etc, is missing the forest for the trees. I think the best shot at a broad market recovery comes with strong price returns from tokens of these big, digital economies, such as ETH. If you’re long enough in crypto, you know that this has always produced the most healthiest rallies and market conditions. Right now it’s not looking like that, but the flows are dynamic and subject to change on a daily/weekly basis. Here’s a screenshot of @majorkeycap’s custom-built software around that and it’s suffice to say that we still have to see flows picking up further to reliably call a market bottom. But I am personally very excited and bullish for the next 18-24 months.

This is an excerpt out of the recently released valuation framework for Ethereum and ETH: „somehow crypto turned assets into identities…“ It’s fascinating but incredibly bad at the same time. We’re not here to cheer on sports teams - NO, we’re still here to figure out how to value these things… and we haven’t solved it AFTER MORE THAN 10 YEARS despite BILLIONS IN MCAP !!! So, let’s leave the tribes to the side for one moment and actually ground from science: what is a blockchain, what is Ethereum, what is ETH and why should it have fundamental value at all? If you’re still curious about that after all these years (I’ve had to uncomfortably admit that I don’t know how to value the 2nd biggest crypto asset at all despite being the 'expert' in social circles) or you know someone who is at the start of that learning journey, then this research report might be the one you’re searching for: majorkeycapital.com/ethereum… Mind you, high-end boutique research like this usually costs multiple k‘s or even yearly investment banking subscriptions. This one is $199 with one-time payment and life-time access and you even get 3 live charts from our state-of-the-art valuation software 'Terminal' included. And if that’s still not enough and you’re hurting from this bear market, reach out to me for a discount. We‘ll sort that out!