trader. early customer. no investment advice.
Joined June 2015
- Tweets3.2K
- Following1.5K
- Followers3.2K
- Likes22.8K
papertradeはローンチからわずか10日間ですが、非常に高効率で急速に成長するように設計されていました。
残念ながらもはやearlyではありません。
Hyperliquidも最初はクソでしたが、tokenomicsに関してミスはありませんでした。
サイクルが早すぎる故に仕組みの改善が間に合いませんでした。
開発者は自分たちの速度と成熟度を見誤りました。
僕の皮算用、完全に破綻
para:PAPER has been halted and settled.
The @papertrade_xyz launch plan, published October 1, included a phase in which PAPER would become transferable. para:PAPER was listed as a pre-launch perp on that basis, with the expectation that it would convert to a standard perp once a spot market became available.
Papertrade announced today that they do not intend to make $PAPER transferable.
The pre-launch perp relied on the expectation that its underlying will eventually trade. Traders took positions based on a public roadmap that supported that expectation. With it removed, there is no future spot price for the market to converge to. We halted para at 22:31:15 UTC immediately following the announcement rather than schedule a later closure. This established a common cutoff for all open positions and a consistent basis for settlement, limiting the impact of trading around the announcement.
All open positions were settled at $0.026296, calculated as the time-weighted average oracle price over the hour ending at the halt, using the same one-hour averaging window as Hyperliquid’s validator-led delistings for HyperCore perps.
All open orders were cancelled. Remaining margin has been released, and realized PnL is reflected in account balances. No action is required from traders.
Should PAPER’s transferability plans change, we will review whether the market can be unhalted.
I have registered to become an active participant in the emergence of a new autonomous network economy.
I believe in forever. xitter.cf/forevercultfund/status…
maff retweeted
know ive been tweeting about this a lot but really think papertrade could be a generational setup
high leverage perps are crypto's most profitable product to date, demand for speculation is not going to go away
ability to open/close synthetic 1000x positions w/ no market impact is a novel mechanism, paired w/ the house-trader relationship where trader losses fund the onchain LP, & all losses after a certain LP cap get paid out to traders staking the platform's native paper token - can see how this can maintain traction longterm, already at 50M+ paid out to $PAPER stakers in first week
every other perp dex's revenue comes from a small take rate on the fees of volume, no perp dex has been able to monetize directly trader losses, of which it's been shown is a much larger number, in theory winners should be able to easily get paid out from house LP over time as high leverage has a difficult success rate, ideal state is that its closer to 50/50 winners/losers after a certain LP cap and even then its a much better model allowing traders to own the house
what's more interesting tho is that the model should be able to be extensible to other games outside of just perpetual futures, the online gambling industry is massive, and none of the online casinos are +EV for users, every major online casino is -EV as thats how the house makes money by creating games that are slightly better probabilistically for the house and monetizing losses over time, with papertrade it should be possible to let people speculate on other similar games with the same model as losses going back directly to paper stakers instead of just to the house - so im curious to see what team is thinking of here
if hyperliquid is the AWS of all of finance, then papertrade could be the AWS of all high leverage speculation money games on the internet, will be cool to see how the next several months play out, dont think people have gone deep enough on the possibilities with one of the first novel onchain experiments in awhile that also rewards its most active participants
maff retweeted
$paper 合约开盘到现在 3 个多小时，我把全部 3.4 万笔成交和 Papertrade 钱包逐个地址对了一遍，看看谁在拉盘、谁在做空、谁被爆了。
1.开盘就被拉爆的空头
一位 Papertrade 矿工(0x9fa494)手里有 339 万枚 PAPER，在 0.012 开了 895 万枚空单，是他持币量的 2.6 倍。
价格一路涨到 0.018，他爆仓了，亏了约 5.5 万美元。
不过这哥们整体还是小赚的，因为挖的早，吃了不少分红，paper成本早就是负的了
2.最大的空头是在做套保
现在最大的空头是一位 HL 链上资金上千万美元的大户
他名下两个钱包(0x8607a7,0x98a262)一共空了约 1,350 万枚，而他在 Papertrade 上持有约 1,500 万枚 PAPER，对冲了约 90%。
第二大空头也是持币者(0x9321d8)：持有 851 万枚，空了 360 万枚，对冲约 42%。
3.最大的paper持币者在做多
另一边，Papertrade 持币最多的大户(0x5c4efb)手里有约 1.15 亿枚 PAPER，没有对冲，反而在合约上又加了约 320 万枚多单。
还有一位 大户持有 67 万枚，在合约上做多 181 万枚，是持币量的 2.7 倍。
4.多空结构
按人数算多头占上风：约 420 个地址做多，约 156 个做空。
空单很集中：前 10 个空头占全部空单的 66%(其中约三分之二是持币者在套保)，多头前 10 只占 47%。
PAPER is now trading 24/7 on Hyperliquid.
$PAPER is the native token of @papertrade_xyz, a synthetic perpetuals platform on HyperEVM, minted to traders from realized losses and stakeable for a share of platform fees. The contract trades as a Pre-Launch perp that converts to a normal perp.
資本的、時間的効率が良いだけでその他のアプリと違いはない
hyperliquidもhypeに価値が還元され、それが配布され循環します
他のどのビジネスのエコシステムも差異はあれど同じことです
価値は効率が良くサイクルが早いこと
問題はサイクルが早すぎると破綻も早い可能性があること
