The US-Iran conflict is creating an oil price spike similar to the mid-1970s, but the current inflation shock looks more under control that a second wave should be more mild ...

Are economic cycles dead? The US economy has become much more resilient over the decades for many reasons including the banking sector is no longer the only source of lending these days... and as a result recessions are abnormal now (less than <10% of the time).

Financial conditions are easier than when the Fed had rates near zero in the last cycle -- engineering a slowdown could be necessary to prevent a Fed overreaction down the road...

Amidst all the noise day-to-day, the global economy has been reaccelerating higher towards multi-year highs.

Respect the seasonals...

Volatility is synonymous with fear and uncertainty - rate volatility is currently pricing in historically low levels of both in long-end bonds.

Retail sales taking off into summer running 3x the long term average.

Tectonic shifts are unfolding in the labor market as structural issues drive the number of long term unemployed to 2mm people - very unusual to see during an expansion…

Over 50% of parents are financially supporting their working Gen Z + Millennial kids, providing support to the consumer as Boomer net worth continues to climb.

The conflict between US-Iran looks far from over, but the oil market is reacting similar to prior geopolitical supply shocks

SpaceX is conducting 50% of all global orbital launches, with a cadence of 1 launch every other day.

Inflation is most visible in premium entertainment with World Cup ticket prices up +142% this year — with the k-shaped economy most apparent in prices for the Finals match up +411% this year.

The ol' saying - you concentrate to get rich, you diversify to stay rich...

Historically markets offer poor risk-reward as we approach the second month of a new Fed Chair - which lines up with a seasonally weak Sep-Oct period as well... will this time be different?

Markets were caught off guard last week post-FOMC where Fed rhetoric has turned as hawkish as when Powell was last hiking 50 bp per meeting- are we at peak hawkishness?

As a US citizen, the annual interest expense to fund the US federal government's debt is now ~$3,200 per person - the highest in history.

The model of borrowing expensive money to buy bitcoin works well when the investment is going up…

The US consumer feels comfortable running much lower savings rate today than historically - with 40+% of Americans lacking an emergency savings fund

Central banks are still paying for the last time they called a supply shock “transitory.” At the Fed, the word may no longer be allowed in the vocabulary.

After several years of banks tightening standards and curbing lending, banks are now providing a tailwind to the business cycle