Geopolitical analyst | Middle East & US Affairs. PhD @UniofBath Lecturer @lebamericanuni Columnist @LorientLeJour Fellow @IREMAM7310

Beirut/Paris
Joined May 2013
#Éclairage | Trump face à l’Iran : quatre à six semaines pour obtenir une victoire. « Trump espère probablement que l’escalade débouchera sur un meilleur accord, et non sur une guerre sans fin. » Par @macaronjoe lorientlejour.com/article/15…
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Protocol is not just symbolism; it reflects leverage. President Aoun should have been careful in handling meeting w/ Rubio. Iraq's PM met Trump at White House, received Treasury secretary at his residence. In 2009, Michel Suleiman met Secretary Gates at White House. Optics matter
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Joe Macaron retweeted
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s scheduled visit to Washington next week could be overshadowed by a resumption of the US-Iran war, with less importance given to the Israel-Hezbollah front amid slow implementation of a framework deal. "The only objective of Aoun’s visit is to entice Trump to pressure Israel to withdraw from Lebanon and to demonstrate that Lebanese authorities can be a reliable partner in implementing the framework agreement, but Lebanese officials realistically have little to no leverage," political analyst Joe Macaron told TNA. @macaronjoe Check out the full in-depth story on our website
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3/4 The agreement creates a new implementation mechanism but leaves its two most important questions unanswered: • What if Hezbollah refuses to disarm?  • What if Israel refuses to withdraw?
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4/4 My argument is that lasting stability will require more than another mechanism. It requires reciprocal obligations, objective verification, and realistic political sequencing.
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✍️ #Analyse | Washington et Téhéran : une guerre de volontés au service des négociations L’objectif de Trump apparaît moins comme la recherche d’une victoire militaire décisive que comme la restauration d’un rapport de force favorable avant une éventuelle reprise des pourparlers. Par @macaronjoe lorientlejour.com/article/15…
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To be clear: 2 areas being considered are not part of "pilot zones" as they are not occupied & framework agreement does not apply to them. Discussion is about guarantees that if LAF goes in, Israel won't attack. Pilot zones will remain difficult to achieve moving forward.
🇺🇸🇮🇱🇱🇧A U.S. official says the first "pilot zone" in southern Lebanon that the IDF is supposed to withdraw from "will launch in a matter of days" 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇱🇧This statement comes as the Lebanese government refuses to hold another round of negotiations with Israel in Rome next week, before Israel implements its commitment to start an initial withdrawal 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇱🇧The U.S. official said "further pilot zones are being mapped out and planned. CENTCOM is coordinating with both countries to move forward" 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇱🇧According to the U.S. official the Rome meeting is "a closed discussion" that will enable the Israeli and Lebanese senior negotiators to hand off to technical teams, which will work on all issues outlined in the Framework agreement between the countries 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇱🇧"We will soon begin outreach to international partners to help the Lebanese Government effectively restore sovereignty in these zones and across their country more broadly", the U.S. official said
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Joe Macaron retweeted
#NATO | In Ankara, an alliance in transition as it grapples with new geopolitical realities Whilst Russia and Ukraine remain officially at the heart of the agenda, Iran has emerged as the main issue of substance. Read @macaronjoe's article below today.lorientlejour.com/arti…
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🔎 #Analyse | Netanyahu renonce au « Grand Israël » mais pas à toute liberté d'action. Sur la défensive, le Premier ministre israélien tente à ce stade de consolider les acquis obtenus depuis octobre 2023. Par @macaronjoe lorientlejour.com/article/15…
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Joe Macaron retweeted
🟥 #Analysis | Lebanon, Syria, the Mediterranean: Erdogan’s new red lines vis-à-vis Israel Turkey does not want to be excluded from the new regional balance that will emerge after the war between the United States and Iran. Read @macaronjoe's analysis below today.lorientlejour.com/arti…
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الكاتب والباحث السياسي جو معكرون: استهداف الضاحية الجنوبية لبيروت محاولة إسرائيلية لاختبار رد طهران وتحديد مدى عمق وجدية دعمها لحزب الله في هذه المرحلة الدقيقة #الأخبار
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