RIP

Steve Jobs always explained jargon (see “market cap”).

It’s 3 BC. Or 1997 AD We’re could be heading towards singularity in 3 years, where humans will take the backseat on economic development. Or following the same path of the dotcom bubble. So it’s either history or science fiction. I tend to favor the historical lens. And why 1997? Nasdaq PE at 28x, vs 70x at peak mania during dotcom bubble. No major IPO frenzy (yet). But Shiller CAPE at 40 (90% of dotcom peak), market concentration past dotcom peak, VC allocation to AI 61% (vs 40% in dotcom). Smart money close to fully deployed. So not exactly early. 2026, like 1997, we should start to see a divide. Real companies (like Amazon, eBay, Yahoo) scaling alongside hundreds that will be dead in 3-4 years. 2027, like 1998, will be acquisition frenzy, like Yahoo buying Geocities for 3.6b and extending until early 1999, when it bought Broadcast dotcom for 5.7b 1999 (2028) it’s the retail blow off top. 457 IPOs. Average first day return 106%. Pets dotcom raises 82m, Webvan raises 375m 2000 (2029) is the pop. Something triggers, like Cisco missing earnings. Maybe a frontier model disappoints? OpenAI misses earnings? Capex slowdown? Major enterprise write-off? Buy the dip investors lose their shirts. 2001 (2030) is the wasteland. Dotcom is toxic. Layoffs. Takes 15 years for Nasdaq to recover. But the next decade is the golden age to build some internet businesses. Google IPO in 2004. Meta founded in 2004, YouTube 2005, Twitter 2006, IPhone 2007. Uber, Airbnb, Spotify, Netflix going into streaming. Stripe, WhatsApp, Instagram. All betweeen 2008-2015, despite a global economic crisis. The future is not dark. But being aware of History helps us dealing with it.

what won’t change in 5 years? - humans will need to eat food - food will be produced mostly the same way - mining will be mostly done the same way - planes won’t change meaningfully - bitcoin won’t be used for transactions - soccer will remain the most popular sport in the world - democracy will remain the dominant form of government in the west - immigration will still be politically contentious - Swiss watches will remain the main luxury item for men - people will still prefer in-person experiences for major life events - home ownership will still be a major life goal for many people - real estate will remain the largest store of household wealth - hospitals will still need doctors and nurses - people will still drink coffee and alcohol - shipping containers will move goods the same way - oil and gas will still account for the majority of global energy - people will still want status, recognition, and financial security - lawyers and accountants will still exist - most people will still work 5 days a week - the US dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency - people will still want to live in major cities - traffic in big cities will still be bad - parents will still spend heavily on their kids - children will still go to physical schools - schools will still be mostly organized by age cohorts - English will remain the default language of business and the internet - bureaucracy will still absorb huge amounts of time - restaurants will still fail often - brands will still matter because trust matters - people will still eat meat at massive scale - QWERTY keyboards will still be the standard - concrete and steel will still be the backbone of construction - insurance will still be confusing - the tax code will still be unnecessarily complex - CAC will keep rising - weddings will still be absurdly expensive - contracts will still be enforced by courts - people will still struggle to stay fit - cities will still be unsafe in some areas - people will still worry about money - people will still feel lonely - most startups will still fail - humans will still die

In the day we lost Jim Simons, I'm reflecting on his five guiding principles for life: 1. Do something new 2. Collaborate with the best people you possibly can 3. Be guided by beauty 4. Don’t give up 5. Hope for some good luck RIP

As a founder, I believe the @FingerprintsDAO experiment both succeeded and failed. It succeeded in creating a collection that, despite the market downturn, has proved its financial value and cultural significance. Primarily the early collection of @larvalabs Autoglyphs and @_deafbeef. But the hypothesis of having a DAO structure as the holder that would unlock more value to that collection failed. We've been trading below NAV far longer than we traded above. Even after adding another layer of value to the tokens, Voxelglyph. It succeeded in creating some successful drops, but failed to do that consistently. I think something has to change. And my suggestion here would be a path for people with $PRINTS or Voxelglyphs to be able to exchange that for the underlying collection in a more direct way. Maybe the endgame will be a smaller, more equanimous DAO with a smaller collection but more equality among holders. Or maybe the solution would be to divide the collection among members proportionately. Details would need to be discussed. So I started this discussion in the members' Discord (link below)

Memento Mori: why founders benefit from contemplating death "Remembering that you are going to die is the best way I know to avoid the trap of thinking you have something to lose. You are already naked." -- Steve Jobs "[Starting a company] is really hard and there’s lots of ways to die" -- @reidhoffman Memento Mori can be translated as “Remember death” or "remember that you'll die". Many artists throughout history have portrayed skulls and other symbols of death, following this ancient practice. The idea is not necessarily to be morbid, but to remember our ephemeral condition. It was a well-known practice of the Stoics and in ancient Rome. In Rome, Memento Mori was part of a ritual that took place after a war victory. When a general was celebrated for his victories, a slave would stand behind him, saying in his ear: “Memento mori! Respice post te, Hominem te esse memento.” – “Remember that you will die! Look behind you, don’t forget that you are only a man.” A technique to remind the commander that he, like everyone else, was doomed to die. Nowadays, Memento Mori is less common. But for startup founders, I believe thinking about death can be especially useful. On one hand it can make you take risks, avoid paths that you'll regret not following later in life, in your deathbed. Take that moonshot while you're young and healthy and alive. On the other hand, understand that 90%+ (arguably 99%+) of companies fail. So having death in mind, learning from dead companies and trying as hard as you can to avoid the mistakes can be really useful. And what are the most common mistakes, the usual suspects? The most common cause of death is lack of product market fit. The underlying reason can vary -- not working hard enough, working on the wrong things, lack of focus, not talking to customers, etc. This list goes on and on and on. Co-founder divorce and fights are another big one, generally caused by "relationship debt". Tensions rise and are either not discussed or discussed in the wrong way, leading to a divorce and death of the company. It surprises most people that very rarely a competitor kills you. It's generally self inflicted in some way. There's a dual thinking going on in a founder's head. You have to take that risk that you'll regret later. But also, in order to realize your vision, you have to have death top of mind in order to avoid the pitfalls. Memento Mori.

Last month @FingerprintsDAO finally completed one important step to decentralization: my long overdue transition from staff to member. Going forward I will be involved in the DAO as an active member, but the committee and working groups will be handling all the DAO operations independently. It's not going to be a massive change from what we saw over the last few months. The team has been responsible already for handling 99% of the work in successful launches like the Mercedes Benz partnership and many other drops, and of course the Voxelglyph with @larvalabs (our membership token, seen below). We're keeping the org as lean as possible for us to thrive, with >10 years of runway assuming zero revenue. More realistically, assuming the same level of revenue that the DAO has generated over the last 12 months of bear market, it will be profitable. Profits can be used to pay for acquisitions and repurchase PRINTS for example. Being a non-staff member will allow me to contribute to discussions in a way that is 100% aligned with the rest of the membership. I believe we’re in the beginnings of a crypto spring after a long winter. Fingerprints is well positioned to capture the upside of what’s coming. I intend to use my voting power and opinion to always make sure that Fingerprints makes economic sense for members, while keeping the DAO honest and true to its roots. Onwards!