Loekalization

Tokyo attempted to expel a Chinese diplomat who threatened the prime minister, only for Beijing to force a retreat within days. In mid-November 2025, according to a Yomiuri reconstruction, Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae instructed officials to warn China that its consul general in Osaka, Xue Jian, would be declared persona non grata unless Beijing recalled him early. This came a week after Takaichi Sanae stated that a Taiwan emergency could justify Japan using force. Xue had posted on social media that "there is no choice but to cut off that dirty neck." Tokyo expected 痛み分け itamiwake ('a bout stopped with both sides hurt'), a sumo and judo term for a fight with no winner where China would expel one Japanese consul in return and the matter would close. Instead, Liu Jinsong, then head of the Asia department at China's foreign ministry, told his Japanese counterpart in Beijing: "If you expel one, we expel two." Yomiuri calls that a 倍返し baigaeshi. English renders it as 'two-for-one retaliation', but this misses the catchphrase of Hanzawa Naoki, a hugely popular Japanese revenge drama: I will pay you back double. Takaichi reportedly shelved the plan under Chinese pressure, and Xue was never declared persona non grata. That week may explain the year that followed. Beijing may have concluded that threats can make Tokyo back off, leaving it with little reason to accept face-saving wording. In September, China's foreign minister Wang Yi told a visiting former Japanese foreign minister: "We do not regard that remark as a careless slip of the tongue," and repeated that she must retract it. Because Takaichi's approval among conservatives makes a second climbdown politically costly, the freeze will likely hold. This suggests no breakthrough at APEC, while Japanese manufacturers may keep paying for it through China's squeeze on rare earths and hotels and shops lose Chinese tourists. Russia is trying something similar with Europe. Tomorrow, Britain and France start the first exercise of the Coalition of the Willing, where about 2,800 troops from 11 countries rehearse a deployment to Ukraine after a ceasefire. Moscow's spokeswoman Zakharova said any such unit inside Ukraine would be a legitimate target. She added that the timing, just before US-Russia-Ukraine talks restart in Abu Dhabi, "proves once again that there is no place for Europeans at the negotiating table." The apparent aim is to make London and Paris look like spoilers in Washington's eyes. Yomiuri sees the same logic in Russia seizing Japan Tobacco's factories, as Moscow may feel freer to hit a US ally after Washington eased some Russia sanctions before its midterms. More than 100 Japanese firms are still operating in Russia. Meanwhile on 7 November, US Central Command fired a precision-guided munition into the stern of a merchant ship flagged in St Kitts and Nevis in the Gulf of Oman. It was the fifth ship disabled since July. That water is the exit lane from Hormuz, the route most of Japan's crude oil takes. Live fire there pushes up insurance premiums and freight rates for tankers in the area, and oil is paid for in dollars. With the yen weak, Japanese households can feel that premium magnified. Want this in your inbox? Once a week I send the Japan and China stories that don't make the English feeds, read in the original. Free, one click to unsubscribe: learn.japanology.nl/newslett… #Japan #China

Putin has seized a hostage inside Russia, and the Japanese state owns more than a third of it. In a single day, Japan Tobacco lost 19.3% of its value, while newspapers in Beijing published a warning from Tehran that this week's oil slump is a bet, not a deal. The crisis began when Putin ordered four Russian companies owned by JT to be placed under the control of Russian firms. As the former state tobacco monopoly, JT leads the cigarette market in Russia, which provides roughly a quarter of its operating profit. Because the Japanese government is the largest shareholder, this loss lands on Japanese taxpayers. Former president Dmitry Medvedev gloated on X: "JT's share price fell 19.3%. This is a good thing." The legal term used is 暫定管理 zantei kanri ('provisional management'), a phrase that sounds temporary and harmless. That may be the point. JT keeps the paper ownership, but Moscow keeps the keys, and handing them back could become something to trade for softer sanctions. Russia took the same action against Nestlé and Auchan in September, and Japan's trade minister Akazawa says such cases have grown since then. Just a week ago, Lavrov told Tokyo to drop its "unfriendly course." Now, all 321 Japanese business sites in Russia could become bargaining chips. At the same time, Brent crude fell 13.32% to $98.32 a barrel this week. It was the worst week since 2020, triggered after Trump said he was talking to Iran. Yet on that same day, Iran's army spokesman stated that US acceptance of Tehran's seven conditions is the only path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Baghaeri, a senior security official, said Iran no longer trusts American 纸面承诺 zhǐmiàn chéngnuò ('paper promises'), a phrase that in Chinese means commitments that exist only on paper, implying they can't be trusted without real action. Traders have priced in a peace that Iran says only Washington can trigger. If talks stall, oil prices could jump back as fast as they fell. Even if the price drop lasts, it may not reach households in Japan. US hiring beat forecasts, and markets now see a 78% chance the Federal Reserve raises rates in December. Higher US rates pull money out of the low-yielding yen into dollars, which weakens the yen. Since oil is priced in dollars, a weaker yen makes already-pricey crude costlier for Japan, and that costly oil weakens the yen further. Tokyo is adding its own risk to the mix. On 6 November, the lower house passed a cut in the consumption tax (Japan's sales tax) with no stated funding. Former prime minister Ishiba walked out rather than vote against his party, saying: "The source of funding is not clear, the finances will be impaired." His word, 毀損 kison, is the one used for a ruined reputation. An unfunded cut can mean more state borrowing, which tends to push Japan's bond yields up. For now, money fleeing a Tokyo stock crash into government bonds helps hide that, as heavy buying pushes yields down. When stocks settle, that cover may fade. Want this in your inbox? Once a week I send the Japan and China stories that don't make the English feeds, read in the original. Free, one click to unsubscribe: learn.japanology.nl/newslett… #Japan #China

Twice now, Japan's prime minister has been forced to ask Donald Trump what China's Xi Jinping said about her. Tokyo is left reading Xi secondhand through a Washington that may soon strike its own deal over Japan's head. Tomorrow marks one year since Prime Minister Takaichi Sanae warned parliament that a Taiwan emergency could become a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan. This phrase is the legal trigger for Japan to use force alongside an ally, a detail previous prime ministers kept vague on purpose. Beijing calls Taiwan a core interest and has frozen top level talks ever since. Nikkei, a business paper usually polite to sitting leaders, now describes the statement in its headline as a careless remark. The paper reports that after a call with Xi in November 2025, Trump told Takaichi: "Xi was speaking ill of you." In May, following Trump's visit to China, Takaichi asked again and added: "Since Japan won't be putting this out, please tell me the details." The specific word haunting Tokyo is 頭越し atamagoshi ('over one's head'). While it sounds like office politics in English, in Japan it recalls 1971, when Nixon opened relations with China without warning Tokyo. Trump's Republicans have now lost Congress, and a weakened president seeking a legacy could repeat that history. In September he urged Xi to talk to Takaichi, but Beijing did not budge. On 3 November, China moved the APEC ministers' meeting online, erasing any chance for Japanese and Chinese ministers to meet in person. Officials now say a Takaichi-Xi meeting at the APEC summit in Shenzhen on 18 November will be hard to arrange. Such a failure would end a streak of yearly in person meetings held since 2022. Japan currently has no leader level talks with China, Russia or North Korea, and Takaichi skipped both the NATO summit and an October G7 video call, missing the very rooms where other partners could be found. Mimaki Seiko of Doshisha University puts it bluntly: "'Riding fully aboard America' on security and the economy is not realism." These frozen ties with Beijing leave Japan leaning entirely on Washington. On 5 November, the Swiss engineering group ABB said Beijing had refused to approve the sale of its robot business to SoftBank for about $5.4 billion. The Financial Times reports that Chinese officials feared robot data from Chinese factories would end up training OpenAI, in which SoftBank invests. On that same day, Putin signed a decree placing four Russian subsidiaries of Japan Tobacco under "temporary management" by local firms. JT retains ownership but loses control. Its shares plunged 19% in evening trading to limit-down, the biggest drop allowed in one day. Because the Japanese state still owns over a third of JT, part of that loss falls on taxpayers. No warships were needed for these strikes. A refused approval and a decree, perhaps for separate reasons, hit Japan hard. Any Japanese company with a deal or factory waiting in Beijing's or Moscow's approval queue may now doubt its government has a direct line to either leader. Want this in your inbox? Once a week I send the Japan and China stories that don't make the English feeds, read in the original. Free, one click to unsubscribe: learn.japanology.nl/newslett… #Japan #China

Beijing released Jilin-1 satellite images of Taiwan on 25 October that it claimed showed every single street in Taipei. Ten days later, on 4 November, America's vice president blamed the Republicans' loss of Congress on Trump's war with Iran. One event is a welcome delivered via a long lens. The other may dictate what Japanese families pay for fuel this winter. On 4 November, Zhu Fenglian, spokesperson for China's Taiwan Affairs Office, praised these new images from Jilin-1, a commercial Chinese satellite. The pictures captured Sun Moon Lake and every street in Taipei. Zhu said they allow people on both sides of the Strait "clearly see Taiwan's cities, fields, salt pans, wetlands and harbors, and take in the splendor of the mountains and seas of the motherland's treasure island." This relies on the phrase 祖国宝岛 zǔguó bǎodǎo ('the motherland's treasure island'). While it reads like a tourist brochure in English, the Chinese possessive is precise: the island belongs to the motherland, and a camera pointed down from space is the proof. During that same briefing, Zhu praised Shanghai traffic police for returning a handbag lost by Taiwanese actor Ming Dao at a highway service area on 14 October, just 15 minutes after he left it behind. Zhu then called the mainland "one of the safest regions in the world." From the same podium, she defended coast guard patrols east of Taiwan. For those in Taiwan, the invitation to visit and the reminder that Beijing can see their street have merged into one message. Meanwhile, Democrats hold at least 228 House seats and 54 Senate seats following the 3 November midterms. Vice President Vance wrote on X, as Yomiuri reports: "The reason we lost is the war." He noted that voters told him they would return if the US ends the war, focuses on the cost of living, and reviews its relationship with Israel. Trump insists the Iran operation was necessary. Looking toward 2028, Vance has broken with Trump's defense of the war, even as both men play down a rift. Tokyo is watching because Asahi identifies the gasoline price spike from the Iran war as the core of voter anger. Japan imports almost all its crude oil from the Middle East and pays in dollars. If Washington continues fighting, oil prices could remain high, meaning households in Japan may pay more to heat their homes. That pressure could ease if Vance's position wins out. Beijing may see an opening here. Regarding a possible US-China-Russia summit in Shenzhen, foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning has shifted from saying there is "no information to provide" to stating that China "is maintaining communication with the relevant parties," a phrase that specifies no one. A president trapped by domestic failure wants a foreign victory, and China would be the stage. However, any sanctions relief Trump offers Moscow could face a hostile Congress starting in January. Consequently, photographs may outnumber deals. Want this in your inbox? Once a week I send the Japan and China stories that don't make the English feeds, read in the original. Free, one click to unsubscribe: learn.japanology.nl/newslett… #China #Taiwan

Washington has sanctioned the International Criminal Court and its Japanese president, Akane Tomoko, leaving Tokyo with a deadline of 2-3 December to declare in The Hague exactly how far it will stand by her. While this unfolds, Beijing is acting on 3 November as its central bank moves to cool a surging yuan. The court puts individuals on trial for genocide and war crimes. Now, US sanctions strike the institution itself rather than just its officials. These measures freeze US assets and forbid Americans from engaging with the court. A 180-day Treasury license currently covers vendor payments and salaries, meaning the ability to pay staff and vendors is at risk if that license lapses or is not renewed. Japan stands as one of the biggest funders and joined an eight-country statement opposing these sanctions in October. The 125 member states meet starting 30 November. Their chair, Finland's Kaukoranta, told reporters the general debate will be "the place where more political discussion takes place." In that room, with its main security ally watching, Japan's habit of paying quietly while saying little in public may be tested. Trump demonstrated a different habit on Fox News on 3 November by treating a long-standing commitment as a campaign prop. He said he will end $4 billion a year in aid to Israel by the end of the year, which cuts short a 2016 pledge that runs to 2028, and called it a way to deny Democrats a talking point. Nikkei calls this 争点潰し sōten-tsubushi ('crushing the issue'), a phrase much blunter than 'defusing a campaign issue'. While most aid buys American weapons, ending it saves up to $3.8 billion yearly. The lesson allies, including Japan, may draw is that a signed multi-year pledge can be upended in a TV interview on election day. China faces a different crisis: a currency rising too fast. Exports have climbed nearly 40% in dollar terms, partly because firms are rushing to ship goods before export tax-rebate changes take effect next year. Exporters sold those dollars for yuan and pushed the yuan past 6.65 to the dollar. Consequently, from 15 November, banks must park 6% of their foreign-currency deposits with the central bank instead of 4%. This freezes an estimated $20-25 billion. With a weaker fixing and dollars set to tighten from 15 November, the yuan slipped back to 6.6765. Wen Bin, chief economist at Minsheng Bank, said the move helps "break the self-fulfilling expectation of yuan appreciation." The official term for this danger is 羊群效应 yángqún xiàoyìng ('sheep-flock effect'), where firms rush to convert dollars because everyone else is. The English 'herd behavior' loses the image of a flock running blind. There is a cost to this maneuver. Oil is priced in dollars, so a strong yuan was quietly lowering China's fuel bill while Brent crude sits near $106 and the Strait of Hormuz remains mined. Slowing the yuan keeps imported energy more expensive for Chinese households and firms. This brake on the yuan may slightly trim its cheaper-fuel windfall. When reporters asked if China would broker three-way talks on Iran, spokeswoman Mao Ning said Wang Yi had met Saudi and Iranian security chiefs 分别 fēnbié ('separately'). That one word sounds like a no, for now. A reopened strait could help Beijing more than any single move by its central bank this month. Want this in your inbox? Once a week I send the Japan and China stories that don't make the English feeds, read in the original. Free, one click to unsubscribe: learn.japanology.nl/newslett… #Japan #China

Tokyo is omitting Washington's 3.5%-of-GDP defense target from its year-end security strategy, Sankei reported on 2 November. The real fear may be something else: Trump potentially meeting the leaders of China and Russia in China on 18-19 November. As Americans vote in their midterms today, Sankei says the Takaichi government is anxious. If Republicans lose, they describe Trump as 死に体 shinitai ('lame duck'). This sumo term refers to a wrestler whose body is already past saving before he hits the sand, carrying a fatalism that the English idiom lacks. Such a president looks abroad for a legacy, and Tokyo fears he will seek it with Beijing and Moscow, bypassing Japan entirely. A senior foreign ministry official calls this prospect "not comfortable." Another government official is blunter: "If Japan-US relations go sour, it is China and Russia who profit." The 3.5% target is where the friction lies. Washington wants allies to spend that share of their economy on defense, but citing tight public finances, Tokyo will not list it as a goal for 2027 to 2031. A president hungry for wins could use that gap to squeeze Japan. Russia has darkened the scene. On 2 November, its bombs hit a school in Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia region where aid was being handed out. Nine more bombs then fell on the shelter where survivors had fled, killing at least 24 people, including rescuers and police. Russia did the same in August at Kryvyi Rih, using a second strike to target those who came to help. Moscow is demonstrating that it pays little price in Washington, just weeks before it may share a table with the US in China. Beijing is watching today's vote for a different reason. Trump promised no strikes on Iran before the election, while Israel's Netanyahu is pushing for strikes immediately after. On 2 November, Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the Gulf's narrow oil exit, within two days if Washington moves first, and Brent crude fell 7.63% to $104.77 a barrel. However, the head of the IMO, the UN shipping agency, said: "I have not received any confirmation that the mines in the traffic separation scheme have been cleared." About 400 ships and 6,000 seafarers remain stuck in the Gulf. Insurers follow the IMO rather than press conferences. This instability hits Beijing through coal. The business daily Yicai, a single domestic source, quotes energy official Tan Hongjiang on winter power under pressure from "continuously obstructed strait shipping." He never names the strait. As less oil and gas arrives, China may lean somewhat more on coal, but Shanxi's mines produced 31% less in September following a deadly accident in May. Prices rose, yet state-set electricity tariffs, which generators cannot raise, prevented those costs from reaching customers. Consequently, third-quarter profits at the big coal-fired generators fell by more than half. If strikes resume after today and fuel prices climb again, much of that cost could fall on those generators. In an extreme cold snap with tight primary-energy supply, Tan says some localities could be tight at peak hours, though he says mutual support between surplus and deficit regions can resolve this. Want this in your inbox? Once a week I send the Japan and China stories that don't make the English feeds, read in the original. Free, one click to unsubscribe: learn.japanology.nl/newslett… #China #Japan