ljp0101 (@ljp0101) profile picture

ljp0101

@ljp0101

Attempting to escape the permanent underclass

Joined September 2020
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For the ambulance chasers, someone getting carted out of $GDOT. Deal isn't dead yet and ample upside to close. Downside case really isn't that bad. Company performance stablised at ~1.50/share in adjusted EPS plus ~1.10/share in AOCI accretion.
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Company disclosure isn't great but math is 2,237m [MBS at end 2025] * (6% - 2.2%) [spread pick up] * (1 - 0.25) [tax] / 58.2m [shares] = ~1.10/share.
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There's still a real possibility deal will close too. Timeline of a year for Fed approval is typical for this level of complexity and mostly worrisome because management guided for earlier close.
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All banks aren't the same. $MBIN puts up 4.6% QoQ growth in TBV plus dividend while everyone else is down from AFS even ignoring declines in HTM and loans off a completely floating rate book and MSRs that go up when duration extends. Structural >15% RoTE bank trading at 1.18 TBV.
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$CASH another bank good value bank that gets a modest earnings boost from higher rates trading on a forward P/E of ~7.5x assuming their guidance, which they always sandbag and usually comfortably exceed, although are exposed to TBV going down from higher rates.
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$OZK bounce/buyback trade played out and it's now at 1.05x TBV. Usually like being aligned with owner operators like Gleason but this isn't the best environment as the spread between cap rates and ten year is too low and higher cap rates are an overhang on CRE collateral value.
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Download filing #408 on the QVC docket and get a free copy of Financial Valuation: Applications and Models, a 105 value according to the Wiley website. Wonder what the copyright law is around this use case and how much lawyers have billed in photocopies of the 1000 page book.
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Confirmation hearing is ongoing and $QVCGP lawyers are getting documents and deposing people but most interesting things are confidential.
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$SIMO "Following hearings conducted in October 2025 and March 2026, the arbitration proceedings have concluded, and the parties are awaiting the issuance of the final award."
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Highly recommend this piece. Analysis here about the US' problem competing with China and why the statistics people look at are wrong is compelling and jarring, even for someone who already internalised the message.
Louis-Vincent Gave (@gave_vincent) profile pictureLouis-Vincent Gave
@gave_vincent6 Nov 2025
We just published a terrific guest piece from my friend Weijian Shan. I think it is a must read for anyone looking to understand China’s advances in manufacturing. research.gavekal.com/article… The piece has no firewall and is open to everyone. Incidentally, Weijian Shan wrote one of my favourite books; a book I had all four of my kids read. The book, OUT OF THE GOBI, details his growing up at the time of the cultural revolution. Hard to understand China today without understanding what the current generation of leaders went through in the late 1960s/early 1970s… Please forward widely!
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$MACK liquidating distribution was mostly reported to me as payment in lieu of dividends or interest (1099-MISC, Box 8). Asked for a recharacterisation but not holding my breath. Is there any line I can deduct the basis without guaranteeing an audit?
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$DM looks to be an ~10% return in a bit over a month at 4.50/share now that the Delaware Court of Chancery has ordered specific performance on $NNDM and for the merger to close expeditiously.
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Court ruling courts.delaware.gov/Opinions…
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Israeli tax form sec.gov/ix?doc=/Archives/edg…
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