what has been will be again, what has been done will be done again. there is nothing new under the sun.

Strategy has likely begun to sell Bitcoin this week (mempool.space/tx/2a65703312f…). The game theory is vicious: Strategy selling but not selling enough to be safe means the whole market keeps hunting Saylor; there's blood in the water. Saylor refuses to take his medicine, instead crawling towards the inevitable. The market knows it, and will keep pushing him. The whole MSTR STRC BTC reflexive loop can now implode. MSTR holders, STRC holders, or BTC holders will get fucked, but we don't know which, or all. Meanwhile, every other DAT that parroted Strategy will face an existential moment - if Saylor is selling, how can you not? Your stock is already at a discount, and the elephant in the room is now doing the unthinkable.

can we please tear saylor's fucking heart out and eat it

$13mm in top-of-book bid liquidity pulled by the team on TRUMP solscan.io/tx/4p5pdAUCGNbtsq… music starting to fade

these violent delights have violent ends

One thing that I've found more and more baffling in the last few weeks is the vertical ascent of SUI, with it quintupling off the lows (Ex 1). The market is starved for winners, and believes it has found one here, yet it all feels awfully chintzy for two reasons that I think feed into each other. First, buying SUI here at a $23B FDV under the fundamental view that it can follow in Solana's footsteps no longer seems tenable. It now trades at a quarter of Solana's valuation. Can anyone really lay out the case that on a relative basis this makes any sense whatsoever from a risk-reward perspective anymore? Has SUI really shown a quarter of the potential of Solana? Secondly, and something I think few know — insiders (including what is likely a large foundation wallet) have sold $400 million in tokens throughout this run-up (Ex 2), had already begun selling material amounts at much lower prices, and are even accelerating their selling at these more elevated levels (Ex 3). It does not bring comfort that the people building this ecosystem, the people who arguably know this token's value best, are unloading hundreds of millions of dollars of token into less informed buyers chasing momentum. As some of us have learned, whether now or later, as with most of these games where retail buys from insiders, there is only one ending.

market saw a glimpse of the future there, it may finally be ETH's turn

imagine that in the long run this will have a salutory effect on the market; a form of catharsis allowing the space to look forward, leaving the sins of the last cycle, as much as we can, in the rear view mirror

a banking crisis in the developed world has advanced Bitcoin's origin story further in the discursive terrain “The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks.”

Without harming others with your shitty model, easy way to figure out that USDC at ~0.9 is likely a +EV buy — hard to imagine a market composed of people in (1) this state of panic and (2) risk management hell during (3) weekend liquidity are overpricing USDC.

think market takes a Genesis bankruptcy in sanguine stride — Genesis Global Capital going down without pulling DCG in would quell hysteria surrounding GBTC turning into a spot BTC pinata.