Whoever ends up controlling the Strait of Hormuz once the guns fall silent will be the winner of the war. So far, it looks like Iran is on a path to strategic victory. My analysis (from the shores of the strait) in @WSJ wsj.com/world/middle-east/co…

One nightmare scenario, in particular for America’s Gulf partners now bearing the brunt of Iranian attacks, is that the U.S. and Israel would stop, then Iran would continue harassing strikes to cow these oil-rich monarchies into submission. The fear is that Tehran will try to pressure them to expel U.S. bases and sever their dependence on an America that failed to protect them. “There are many dangers. A wounded, angry Iran is not the best-case scenario for the Gulf states. While the U.S. has to a large degree castrated Iran in terms of its ability to attack Israel, this gives Iran only one other option: to attack the Gulf states and to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz,” said Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum think tank. “Militarily speaking, the U.S. is on the winning side. But politically speaking, the U.S. and Israel have really gotten nowhere when it comes to Iran.” @Dr_DaniaThafer wsj.com/world/middle-east/en…

Watched the German and German-led NATO troops march through Lithuania’s city of Kaunas yesterday, in a message of deterrence to Russia. (If push comes to shove, I’d run with the Norwegian unit here.)

How 🇷🇺Putin and 🇸🇦MBS got Witkoff to take the lead in 🇺🇸American diplomacy on Russia and Ukraine, and how Kellogg was pushed aside after turning down Russia’s pre-inauguration entreaty relayed via Tucker Carlson. With my amazing @WSJ colleagues. wsj.com/world/putin-witkoff-…