Layer Cake 🦍

Interestingly enough, both $BTC (from '21-'22) and the $SPX from ('00-'08) had mid cycle tops that took the shape of flat corrections (think giant ranges with a lack of blow off top) before beginning the next leg of their respective bull cycles. SPX had a 61% drawdown while BTC had a 76% drawdown before these final legs began. Meanwhile, one of these markets is literally going parabolic, while another one hasn't yet begun it's parabolic ascent. My expectation is that $BTC is basically around the stage that the SPX was in the blue circle. Also want to point out that a break of an ascending trend line does not constitute a break in "market structure". If you sold the break of the trendline on the SPX you would have sold at 2200-2300 before the current parabolic expansion. A true break of HTF market structure on the SPX would have been at $1810, 56% below the prior ATH. Which is again, a great example of why using % drops as the gauge to whether we are in a bull or bear market will more often than not leave you offsides before the biggest rallies even occur. On the SPX, just before we went parabolic, we saw a 37% correction to the downside. Which was immediate followed by new ATH and a 200+% rally off the lows. to where we are today. And yes, for the record, I was bullish at the bottom of that 37% dip on the SPX too, smack dab in the middle of Covid when people were screaming about why the market wouldn't recover because they were out of toilet paper (iykyk).