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Chicago/Durham/Baltimore
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Expected Goals is my free daily lacrosse newsletter, covering the good, the bad, and the ugly for every team.
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Right now it's roster previews, but schedule previews will be starting in the next few weeks.
4/ Roster Analysis: New Hampshire
New Hampshire returns two productive draw specialists. So why did its draw unit rank in the 7th percentile?
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Here's what we've covered recently in the DI Women's editions of Expected Goals Daily. Sign up today!
4/ Roster Analysis: Princeton
Princeton’s offense has a path forward. In goal, the Tigers return just 5% of last season’s saves.
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A bit of today's discussion of Jacksonville MLAX. Jacksonville finished 18th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Its projected 2027 mark would have ranked around 45th last year—even with a familiar faceoff unit.
In today's about-to-come-out newsletter, there's a feature on @UIndyMLax. UIndy returns most of a 95th-percentile defense—but just 21 saves in goal.
Princeton men's lacrosse returns just 5% of last season's saves and 22% of its faceoff experience. What happens to a team that finished in the 99th percentile on offense and the 93rd on defense when two positions turn over so sharply?
On attack, Chad Palumbo took 17% of Princeton's shots last season. Nate Kabiri took 13.4% and recorded 28.6% of its assists. The player card's ratings separate overall value from shooting and distribution; those measures may tell different stories.
UIndy men’s lacrosse returns 85% of its offensive production and 77% of its defensive contributions. AJ Preachuk, who made 131 saves, is gone. What does that imbalance mean for 2027?
The player-level view turns to the offense. Amadeo Miller took 13% of UIndy’s shots; Tanner Hahm supplied 30% of its assists. The rating bars separate involvement, shooting and distribution—different ways a returning player can shape a possession.
