Mearsheimerin 5 suurinta ennustetta oli:
1. Venäjä ei sietäisi Ukr. liittymistä Natoon
2. Venäjä käyttäisi voimaa estääkseen tämän
3. Tämä johtaisi sotaan
4. Sanktiot eivät saisi venäjää perääntymään
5. Venäjä ei pystyisi valloittamaan/miehittämään koko Ukr.
Hän on ASIANTUNTIJA
Jotenkin absurdia, että tälläinen kaveri kuten ,@Simasuu_XO kertoo minulle , että olen maanpetturi😂😂
Tämä on ihmisille jotka meillä suomessa ja euroopassa, valtion päämiehet mkl. vaativat Ukrainaan lisää aseistusta venäjän lyömiseksi ja donbassin takaisin saamiseksi , että VAIN 21% UKRAINALAISISTA KANNATTAA TÄTÄ.
Tomi Salonen retweeted
No, they haven't, and I think you're fully aware of this but choose to continue lying. Ukraine is carrying out operational-tactical-level counteroffensives in two sectors, and limited counterattacks and clearing operations in four other sectors.
On the operational level, Russia maintains the initiative in the majority of frontline directions. And I also find it funny how you continue to highlight heavy Russian casualties, while outright ignoring the heavy Ukrainian casualties, which are well documented.
You, and all the other cheerleaders and advocates, have blood on your hands for completely ignoring the frontline reality, while massively emphasising any Ukrainian success.
MORE: Ukraine has regained the operational initiative on most key battlefield directions and has been contesting Russia’s strategic initiative since late 2025, writes @nataliabugayova. ⬇️
Ukraine has slowed Russian battlefield advances to a footpace in 2026 and has grown the already staggering human cost of the Russian advance.
Ukraine has retaken significant territory from Russia in 2026, and at the theater level has nearly zeroed out Russian gains for the year. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have only made a net gain of about 100 square kilometers thus far in 2026 thanks to Ukrainian counteroffensives, which have liberated at least 1,046 square kilometers, for example. The daily Russian net rate of advance in 2026 is so far less than a square kilometer per day — literal footpace. Russia’s summer offensive has failed. Russia’s fall offensive is likely to fail as well.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has failed to accomplish any of his stated war aims in Ukraine to date. Putin did not force the Ukrainian government to capitulate, nor did he destroy the Ukrainian military. Russia is nowhere close to taking the rest of the Donetsk region, including the Fortress Belt – one of Putin’s stated war aims.
Ukraine has forced the Kremlin to confront dilemmas inside of Russia that would have been unthinkable not long ago. Ukraine’s deep strike campaign has triggered fuel shortages in Russia, degrading at least 30 percent of its refining capacity, and forced Moscow to choose which infrastructure to protect with air defense assets. Ukrainian advances and strikes are challenging Putin’s promises of Russia’s economic stability, security, and greatness.
Ukraine’s 2026 battlefield progress is not transient or accidental — it is a result of Ukraine’s maturing warfighting capabilities and military transformation that occurred over 2025 and 2026. Ukraine has significantly grown its intermediate-range and deep-strike campaigns, expanded military production, matured operational art concepts, and is increasingly focused on the long-term warfighting strategy. Ukraine is working on its ballistic missile program, which, if successful, will put key Russian defense industrial and military infrastructure at even greater risk.
Nord Streamista ilmestyy dokumentti.
Alla aiheeseen liittyvä lehtijuttu.
infosperber.ch/politik/nords…
Miettikää ihmiset kuinka paljon oy suomi ab:tä vedetään kakkoseen...
EU imports record 12.18 million tonnes of Russian Arctic LNG in first nine months of 2026, an increase of 9.5 per cent compared with the same period last year.
"That is over 44,000 tonnes every day on average. Even after the summer slowdown, Europe has taken more than it did during the same period last year,"
Sebastian Rötters, Sanctions Campaigner at Urgewald said.
Estimated EU payments in the first nine months: €7.88 billion.
Estimated EU payments since 2022: €45 billion just for Russian LNG.
From the time of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 through the autumn of 2026, the European Union paid Russia over €238 billion for fossil fuels and energy supplies.
Mitähän tuo akka kuvittelee itsestään..
"Olisin käytettävissä hätätilanteessa. Esimerkiksi jos Venäjä hyökkäisi kimppuumme".
Tulee mieleen legendaarinen lause joka häneltä joskus tuli..
"Suomi on voittanut venäjän sodassa"😀😀
iltalehti.fi/ulkomaat/a/29b1…
Tomi Salonen retweeted
Sanoin kolme päivää sitten, että nyt on aika vapauttaa Venäjän öljytoimitukset... No mitä tapahtui? Jutun nimi yksinkertaisesti on, että koko globaali talous olisi pysähtynyt, jos tätä ei olisi tehty.
Ja miksi juuri Trump teki tämän? Koska nössöt eurooppalaiset eivät uskaltaneet tunnustaa, että heidän reservinsä ovat loppu ja pyysivät Venäjän sijaan USA:lta apua.
Tämä käsittämätön 'me ei leikitä Venäjän kanssa' -toiminta johtaa siihen, että muut toimijat päättävät asiat puolestamme.
Seuraava askel on, että USA ja Venäjä tekevät diilin myös Nord Streamista ja kaasun toimittamisesta Eurooppaan. Kun valta Saksassa vaihtuu, asia konkretisoituu.
Kannattaisiko Suomenkin palauttaa kaasu- ja öljytoimitukset ja lopettaa se LNG:n rahtaaminen?
Myös sähköntuonti Venäjältä olisi fiksu veto. Vaikka asiaa ei sanota ääneen, halvan säätösähkön tuottaminen idästä Suomeen ja datakeskuksille ratkaisisi koko Suomen energiaongelman.
Linja on, miksi se piti katkaista?
"Mitäs se Varvikko mölisee?
Meidän savupirttiin ei saatana venäläistä energiaa tuoda!
Menkööt vaikka sisälämpötila pakkaselle ja sähkön hinta yli 100 senttiin kilowatilta!"
Meidän poliittiset päättäjät ovat tietyn kansanosan tuella tekemässä Suomesta Ukrainan kaltaista 'tappavaa aluetta'; aluetta joka muuttuu kansalaisille köyhäksi, masentavaksi ja pelottavaksi.
Tämä 'ikuinen sota' pitää lopettaa heti tähän paikkaan.
Vielä ei ole myöhäistä.
-Jauri Varvikko
Tomi Salonen retweeted
2014.
Zelenskyi: Venäläiset ja ukrainalaiset ovat todella veljellisiä kansoja.
-Jos ihmiset idässä (Donbassissa) ja Krimillä HALUAVAT puhua venäjää, jättäkää heidät rauhaan. Antakaa heidän puhua venäjää laillisesti.
Se oli koronakusetus joka sai ihmiset tarkastelemaan kriittisesti asioita.
Schlechtes Bühnenbild in Kramatorsk/Ukraine am 08.10.2026?
Mittlerweile spricht man nichtmehr von einer FAB-500 Gleitbombe, die den Bus traf - jetzt soll es eine FAB-250 gewesen sein - also nichtmehr über 500kg sondern 100kg Sprengstoff.
Wieder habe ich Fragen und Antworten.
Das Bild aus 2 Perspektiven👇
Mir ist zwar völlig unklar warum da 5 Tote im Bild in einer Reihe liegen aber geschenkt - vielleicht waren sie ja auf der Straße Pilze pflücken. Im Bus waren sie ganz sicher nicht, weil 100kg Sprengstoff im Umkreis von 5 Metern (Kleinbus) nichts von menschlichem Gewebe übriglassen - nichts, was nicht in ein Einwegglas paßt.
Zonentabellen nennen für die FAB-250 grob 28 m schwere, 56 m mittlere und etwa 110 m leichte Gebäudeschäden.
Nun zu dem Oberleitungsmast - neben dem Bus.
Der steht? Kerzengrade? Nix passiert?
Ein Wunder! In dem Bild sind das die üblichen Schleuderbetonmasten zu sehen. Schleuderbeton ist spröde: Er reißt, knickt am Fundament oder bricht im Schaft durch. Splitter schlagen außerdem Stücke aus dem Mantel.
Bei rund 100 kg Sprengstoff direkt am Bus wäre ein Betonmast wenige Meter daneben deshalb sehr wahrscheinlich gebrochen oder umgelegt, nicht nur angekokelt. Ein noch stehender, gerade Mast unmittelbar neben dem Wrack passt dazu schlecht.
Die Leitungen sind natürlich auch keinesfalls beschädigt.
Bild 2 - natürlich ist auch das Löschen des Schrottwracks wichtiger, als die Leichen fortzubringen🧐 Lernt man halt so auf der Feuerwehrschule in der Ukraine. Könnte vielleicht ja noch leben aber egal - der Bus ist wichtig.
Ne, ne, ne - seit Bergamo und Corona guck ich genauer hin.
Meine Fresse!
Nyt on kovaa settiä😂😂
Tämän näköinen wannabe rättipää koittaa vittuilla ulkonäöstä🤣🤣
Ja tällekkin oli kova pala se kun annoin jaxuhalit hänen Israel sympatioille.
@Anteryasa_fi
Tomi Salonen retweeted
Many Israeli citizens were killed by Israeli forces on October 7.
28 Apache helicopters used all their ammunition and had to be reloaded.
Mainstream media will never tell you about the Hannibal Directive.
Here’s our report with @pularjs on what really happened on Oct 7:
Kyllä nämä tyhjäpää ministerit ovat herkkiä tuon leikkokikkelien valtakunnan suhteen❤️
Tästä kritiikistä heilahti blokki.
Hienoa persu @JaniMakelaFi
Onko ihmiset huomannut, että nyt on taas hirveä propaganda tulva Ukrainan joukkojen etenemisestä.
Taas kerran ukro uskontoon hurahtaneet huutaa, että nyt venäjä lyödään.
Kuinka mones kerta tämä nyt olisi?
Eniten vituttaa se, että tuo paska täyttää feedin..
Tomi Salonen retweeted
❗️The upcoming combined Russian missile and drone attack that I was warning about will likely take place tonight. It will be combined with strategic bombers.
During the night, 3 Tu-160M and 6 Tu-95MS strategic bombers were redeployed from Ukrainka Airbase in the Far East. The Tu-160s flew to Belaya Airbase, and the Tu-95MS flew to Olenya and possibly Engels-2. Most/all of them are equipped with Kh-101 cruise missiles, which were delivered to Ukrainka Airbase with an An-124-100 military transport aircraft yesterday.
In addition, 2 Buyan-M corvettes were re-equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles in the Caspian Sea following the earlier "Centre-2026" exercises. They are stationed at Kaspiysk Naval Base, Republic of Dagestan.
Furthermore, up to 40 missiles of various types (Iskander-M, RM-48U, Oniks-M, Kn-23, & Zircon) are ready in Bryansk, Kursk, Voronezh, & Rostov Oblasts after another dozen or so were delivered in the last few days. Up to one-third of these missiles are Kn-23 ballistics. Not all of the ~40 missiles will be used in this upcoming attack; some will be reserved for a future attack.
Hundreds of Geran-2 drones, Geran-4 jet-drones, Geran-5 jet-drones, and S8000 Banderol cruise missiles are also ready for use at launch points surrounding Ukraine. They will likely be launched over a longer period of time to exhaust Ukrainian air defences.
The main target of this attack will likely be energy infrastructure. The highest threat is to Kyiv City, Kyiv Oblast, Dnipro City, and Kremenchuk (Poltava Oblast), as well as the western regions of Ukraine (especially Rivne, Volyn, Ivano-Frankivsk, and Lviv Oblasts).
The threat window for missiles (excluding Banderols) is from 12am-8am. As usual, ground-based missiles will be used first, and air-launched cruise missiles (Kh-101s) will be used second.
It is not 100% guaranteed that an attack will indeed take place tonight, however the threat is much higher than previous nights when increased threat levels were issued.
Harvojen järjenääniä tässä hullussa maailmassa.
The Norwegian media is uniquely ridiculous in its smear campaigns. When I tell people abroad about the brazen and lazy propaganda, they often assume I am exaggerating.
This week there have been two more smear pieces published about me. The first story in the media is about my tweet on the results of Russia’s parliamentary election, in which I wrote: “Big win for United Russia. President Putin's party, United Russia, won 57.83% of the vote in the parliamentary election, which is a significant increase from 49.8% in 2021”. In short, I merely stated the election results, which are important as United Russia now has a majority in parliament. The newspaper reported that I was “cheering” Putin’s victory and “congratulating” Russia. Another newspaper wrote that I was spreading Russian propaganda because I made the election seem legitimate.
Another absurd story was published today with the headline: “Several cases against Norwegian Russia researcher”. The article is about accusations submitted to my university regarding an alleged breach of ethical research practices, which is intended to give the reader the impression that my research and publications have violated research ethics standards. What the newspaper does not mention is that anyone can send a letter with accusations to the university, and there is no shortage of radical activists seeking to silence academics. However, these accusations mean nothing when there is no substance to the accusations, and for that reason these accusations did not lead anywhere. However, such accusations are catnip for journalists who engage in smear campaigns and do not mind misleading their readers.
The newspaper cites a smear piece in the complaint to prove that I may have breached ethics standards: I had cited US Ambassador William Burns (who later became the CIA Director) as he had written in 2008 that if NATO attempted to pull Ukraine into the NATO orbit – Russia would possibly intervene military even though this is not something Russia would want to do. In the smear piece against me, it is claimed that Burns did not imply anything of the sort and he did not even use the word “intervene” (vagant.no/professor-diesens-…).
However, anyone can go into the cable to read that Burns wrote: “In Ukraine, these include fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene… Experts tell us that Russia is particularly worried that the strong divisions in Ukraine over NATO membership, with much of the ethnic-Russian community against membership, could lead to a major split, involving violence or at worst, civil war. In that eventuality, Russia would have to decide whether to intervene; a decision Russia does not want to have to face” (wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/0…).
The propagandists are citing their own smear pieces as evidence. However, it does not matter that all these accusations are built on lies, because from now on journalists can refer to me as the academic who has been ‘accused’ of spreading propaganda and violating ethical research standards. The process is the punishment, so it does not matter that the accusations have no substance.
The most absurd smear piece came last year, when one of the largest newspapers wrote that I had been exposed for participating in an “influence operation.” In reality, I had attended a conference devoted to the 200th birthday of Immanuel Kant in his place of birth, Kaliningrad. My speech, published on my Substack (glenndiesen.substack.com/p/t…), was about the crisis of modernity and questioning the durability of secular morality, yet the journalist insisted that the conference was actually about confronting NATO in the Baltic Sea. The evidence published to prove this was a secret influence operation was a list of foreign guests with the headline “List of possible participants of the event for the Baltic region.” However, it was written in Russian, so it probably looked very incriminating. The timing of the article was interesting as it was more than a year after the conference, although I had just run for parliament, and I had been caught in a large media campaign to discredit me.
For context, it is important to note that in Norway, every single member of parliament is in favour of sending weapons to Ukraine, and none are calling for diplomacy with Russia. All the newspapers repeat government talking points and smear any dissent. At least in countries like Germany and France, there is opposition. The complete lack of dissent is believed to reflect their “moral clarity,” as opposed to authoritarian means of keeping the war going.
Arguments are never discussed, instead the norm is personal attacks and simplistic rhetoric denouncing critics of NATO’s policies as “pro-Russia” and “anti-Ukrainian”. The vast majority of Ukrainians want a negotiated settlement, yet the media label me “anti-Ukrainian” for suggesting that our government should open diplomatic channels with Russia to resolve the dispute over the European security architecture. Meanwhile, these self-proclaimed “pro-Ukrainians” consistently ignore the will of most Ukrainians, and when they see the manpower shortage, their response is to push for deporting Ukrainian refugees, lowering the conscription age of Ukrainian men, or calling for the forced conscription of Ukrainian women as well. The war propaganda and smear campaigns in this country are characterized by laziness, aggressiveness, and arrogance.
























