special projects @pareto_ai ✦

SF
Joined January 2026
The most compelling part for me is making the probability distribution visible rather than collapsing uncertainty into a single chat interface output. That gives users and downstream systems a much better basis for deciding when to act, ask for confirmation, defer, etc. Curious if those probabilities remain well calibrated in domain-specific, shifting environments, but this feels like an important step toward AI that exposes uncertainty instead of hiding it behind fluent language! Congrats to the team!!
After co-inventing ChatGPT, I kept asking myself: why have superhuman chat models not led to AGI? I’ve spent the last 2 years in stealth building a new way to train models (RLCD), and a new type of frontier AI model that we are releasing today: Jev • 20-200x faster • 40-400x cheaper (w/ output tokens free) • Frontier composable intelligence optimized for decisions AFAICT the shortest path to AI-based economic revolution
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Today we’re releasing LEAPBench, a benchmark for how efficiently models learn from feedback over many rounds. Most evals only score whether a model eventually reaches a good solution. LEAPBench scores how many tries it took to get there. Two systems can reach the same optimum while one needs 7 experiments and the other needs 27. Most benchmarks call that a tie, even though those 20 extra runs cost real time and materials. LEAPBench is 55 multi-turn optimization tasks, 45 in biology and 10 education RCTs, built from 2,719 real experimental observations. In each task, the model proposes parameters, sees the result, and iterates toward an optimum over as many as 30 rounds, e.g. one biology task involves maximizing antibiotic yield by tuning variables like pH, glucose concentration, temperature, and soy flour level.
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training data is starting to look like a zero knowledge proof problem. labs have to judge quality without seeing the full dataset or the QC pipeline behind it. vendors proxy quality with multi-rollout pass rates, small-model ablations, and downstream eval gains. but compute and iteration costs explode as environments and trajectories grow more complex. quality has no ceiling, and the best data is often the hardest to capture in a metric or explain in a writeup. huge alpha in making data quality more legible.
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two of the highest-leverage roles for operators trying to break into ai right now: spl (strategic projects lead) and em (engagement manager) positions at data companies. day-to-day, they sit between a frontier lab's research team and the experts producing training data, translating between them in real time. one person fusing sales, ops, and technical fluency. these are the most contested hires in ai data right now. six months in and you'll get competing offers from every major data vendor and even research orgs. candidates ghost their own interviews. offers take weeks to close. total comp is through the roof. the implicit deal is 80-hour weeks owning eight- and nine-figure pipelines producing the training data behind frontier models. you will burn out, recover, then run it back until agi. find the team you trust to do this with, and no other role will teach you more or compound your impact on the industry faster.
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kitty retweeted
Replying to @nikunj
CIA offsite in San Francisco!
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A startup shut down 9 years ago. Today, its code is in a bidding war. The founder kept everything: Verilog RTL, a custom compiler toolchain, PCB schematics, full commit and PR history. Most production-grade chip design stays locked inside major silicon shops. Two labs have made offers to license the code to build RL training environments. The offers already total seven figures. Check your hard drives.
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The RL Env or any other frontier market is basically a trust based market. It is not just labs looking for vendors who can “build environments on request”. In numerous cases they looking for thought partners who can help define how RL infra must evolve as agents achieve gains to be more autonomous. This means the winners will be selected by relationship density with top 5% anchor lab customers. and I might be opinionated but we are again in Scale AI era where they had majority revenue concentration with just top 5 players.
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rl environment companies have a version of the same problem as traditional human data vendors. the know-how is sold instead of compounding. labs receive environments, tasks, and verifiers directly. they can inspect the verifier design, extend the architecture to new domains, and eventually automate the creation of more complex and diverse environments without the original builder. just less obvious. hosted environments could change this. labs get reward signals without ever receiving the docker image. IP stays protected. openreward is an exciting first step towards getting the best environment builders onto a platform where high-quality private environments can be accessed before they saturate, and builders keep what they build.
We’re releasing OpenReward, a minimalist product that does one thing really well: serve RL environments at scale. Agentic RL is really painful because it adds a new axis of compute - environment compute - alongside training compute that needs to be scaled seamlessly on demand. OpenReward is a narrowly focused product based on this problem. We serve complex agentic environments as minimal API endpoints, which work with any training framework and scale based on use. Our vision is a home of reward on the internet, which is interoperable with any form of training or evaluation - and ultimately provides an open ecosystem alternative to the closed RL vendor market. 🧵
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our team recently completed a study on model metacognition and found that confidence and capability were almost completely uncorrelated across 19 frontier models from different labs. self-certainty as a reward signal assumes confidence correlates with correctness. i wonder whether this holds outside math and code. more to share soon.
Next read is on how to generalize GRPO to domains without verifiers
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kitty retweeted
The data markets are reacting to the fact that we can't hillclimb on anything but realistic data anymore for long horizon training, and trying to purchase datasets from failed startups en masse. Naturally, same problem as contrived data - your data sources inherently aren't good. If you're purchasing codebases from failed startups, you're probably not getting the greatest learning signal from the myriad of git commits and prs that are frantically put together at the end of the startup's lifecycles. Working on real world data pipelines with good data sources. Unlocking good enterprise data for model training has sucked since 2023 after we scraped the entirety of the internet for pre-training data. Unfortunately, or fortunately, the best quality data comes from people who aren't aware that its being used for ai model training.
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The future of work is dictating to your phone on a beautiful stroll while Claude is running on a Mac mini at home
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if you’re ever wondering what we do at lunch at pareto, its not rlvr or evals
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expanding what’s deterministically verifiable for RLVR is a methodology bottleneck as much as a tooling one. most verifiers are script-based or llm-as-judge. the opportunity is building reward signals durable enough to open up the domains worth training on.
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Von Neumann's insight in Game Theory was that when the "environment" contains other optimizing agents, the problem becomes irreducibly triadic. You can't just model your action against the world, because the world includes agents who are modeling you modeling them. The interaction requires a mediating structure — the game itself — that isn't reducible to either player's perspective. This is Thirdness in Peirce's precise sense: a relation that cannot be decomposed into dyadic components.
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on the ever evolving state of human data and the Pareto frontier ✨
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there are boy offices and girl offices and this is an example of the former
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Recently I've been thinking a lot about frontier models' ability to express uncertainty, especially for high-stakes medical use cases. We evaluated this capability across models. Early results below 👇 Gemini: 0% across every scenario. Claude: failed on over half GPT: best
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Machines of Hugging Face
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kitty retweeted
Frontier models are trained to answer. But in high-stakes domains, the safer behavior is often to pause, express uncertainty, and ask for more context instead of acting like a doctor who never asks. Great work from @phoebeyao, Marilyn Zhang, and the team on a model capability that is still barely measured today.
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