Civil engineer retired 70 years old from Holland trading in options is mechanic so as a engineer can use my skills in trading options
Netherlands
Joined June 2011
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Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 $SPX IS PREPARING A MASSIVE DUMP
Everyone expects more upside after the new highs. I'm seeing a textbook Wyckoff trap on the weekly...
UTAD printed at 7,850 → fake breakout, late buyers trapped
Price is already slipping under 7,630
My timeline:
- NOW → Rejection from 7,850
- Q4 → Liquidity sweep around 7,230
- Q1-Q2 2027 → Distribution at 7,000-7,200
- Q3 2027 → Breakdown + Spring below 6,318 (~6,100)
- Q4 2027 → 6,500 retest → accumulation begins
- 2028 → Expansion toward 8,400
That's a ~20% flush while the crowd keeps buying every dip
Smart money sells strength. Retail buys the top
Not financial advice - just my map
Switch notifs on - I'll post updates as the structure plays out
🚨 $SPX IS LOADING A MASS DUMP
2 years inside a Rising Wedge. Higher highs, weaker legs. Price: 7,663, pinned under the upper line
What the chart says:
1. Dip to the lower trendline, late longs get flushed
2. Bounce + one last fakeout
3. Blow-off top at $8,200, peak greed
4. Wedge breaks, first leg down to ~6,500
5. Distribution range, a fake recovery to sell into
6. Final wave: 4,800 in Q2-Q3 2027
Mega-caps carry the index while breadth rots
Euphoria + thin participation = textbook distribution
Rallies into resistance aren't strength. They're exit liquidity
When $8,200 prints, everyone will scream 10k. That's your exit, not your entry
Protect profits. Don't marry the top
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
Klaver denkt dat ie onmisbaar is voor Nederland maar dat belastingplan over links gaat de #VVD nooit doen, toch @rubenbrekelmans @DefensieMin ? Toch? Toch?!!! #eva
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 THE AI STOCK SELLOFF IS GETTING MUCH WORSE.
Goldman Sachs says hedge funds are cutting their tech exposure at the fastest pace in at least 10 years.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 5.5% last week, its worst weekly performance since April 2025.
Semiconductor stocks saw the heaviest selling as funds pulled money out of the AI trade.
But even after all this selling, tech still makes up 23.5% of hedge funds' net exposure, near a five-year high.
Their net leverage has also dropped to its lowest level in a year.
Hedge funds have already started cutting their positions, but they're still holding a lot of tech stocks.
If more funds decide to sell, there's still plenty of room for this selloff to get worse.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
’Klimaatdoel Parijs bijna niet meer haalbaar, jaarlijks honderden miljarden schade’ telegraaf.nl/financieel/klim… zou goed zijn als Olaf Sleijpen dit wat zakelijker/wetenschappelijker zou benaderen. Bv: 384 miljard dollar klimaatschade in context plaatsen. Dit is 384 miljard dollar op een wereld bbp van 150.000 miljard dollar, dat wil zeggen 0,25% daarvan. En niet alleen oog zou hebben voor de risico’s van klimaatverandering, maar ook voor de risico’s van het mitigatiebeleid. Door dat niet te doen lopen DNB en ECB het risico asymmetrisch en dus slecht risicomanagement aan financiële instellingen op te leggen.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
BREAKING:
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US-Iran breakthrough agreement is expected this week to stop escalation.
Classic Monday news before the US market open.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
⚠️BREAKING:
*EUROPEAN STOCKS FALL ACROSS THE CONTINENT TO START THE WEEK; GERMANY'S DAX SINKS 1%
🇪🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇪🇸🇳🇱🇬🇧
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 GLOBAL MARKETS ARE NOT READY FOR WHAT'S COMING TONIGHT!
🇨🇳 CHINA WILL RELEASE ITS GDP DATA TONIGHT AT 10:00 PM ET!
CURRENT: 4.3%
IF GDP > 4.3% → BULLISH FOR CHINESE STOCKS!
IF GDP < 4.3% → SERIOUS TROUBLE FOR GLOBAL MARKETS!
HERE'S THE REAL DANGER:
WEAK ECONOMIC DATA WILL PUSH BEIJING TO SELL MORE U.S. BONDS AND USE THE LIQUIDITY TO SUPPORT ITS OWN ECONOMY!
THAT WOULD DELIVER ANOTHER BRUTAL BLOW TO U.S. MARKETS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKING HEAVY LOSSES!
PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO TONIGHT'S REPORT!! 👀
🚨 NEXT WEEK'S ECONOMIC CALENDAR IS ABSOLUTELY INSANE!
MONDAY → 🇯🇵 JAPAN PPI
TUESDAY → 🇺🇸 U.S. PROPERTY SALES
WEDNESDAY → 🇺🇸 U.S. INFLATION (CPI & CORE CPI)
THURSDAY → 🇺🇸 FED CHAIR WARSH SPEAKS, JOBLESS CLAIMS & PPI
FRIDAY → 🇪🇺 EUROPEAN INFLATION (CPI & CORE CPI)
SUNDAY → 🇨🇳 CHINA GDP
EXPECT MASSIVE VOLATILITY - GLOBAL MARKETS WILL REACT TO ONE MAJOR CATALYST AFTER ANOTHER!!
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 BREAKING: ABSOLUTE BLOODBATH!!
🇯🇵 OVER ¥27,000,000,000,000.00 HAS BEEN WIPED OUT OF THE JAPANESE STOCK MARKET IN 10 MINUTES.
THE BANK OF JAPAN IS NOW DUMPING ALL U.S. TREASURIES IN A DESPERATE ATTEMPT TO STOP THE COLLAPSE.
THE BLACK MONDAY CRASH HAS OFFICIALLY STARTED…
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
Market performance since the first serious MSCI warning for a downgrade,
🇮🇩 Indonesia -46%
🇹🇷 Turkey -21%
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
🚨 SOFTBANK'S DEBT CRISIS IS GROWING.
It is now down -25% in just the last 7 trading sessions.
The biggest concern is its exposure to AI.
As of June 2026, it held $164 Billion in debt, much of it used to finance its AI investments. The interest costs for this is already at $2 Billion, up 95% from Q1.
In September, it raised another $11 Billion at interest rates as high as 9.75%, adding $1 Billion in annual interest.
Investors are now panicking over whether these massive costs will ever translate into actual profits.
SoftBank’s 5-year default insurance (CDS) shot up by 24 basis points to 424 bps.
This makes it a similar story to what happened to Oracle’s 5Y CDS (288 bps) and CoreWeave’s CDS (1,100bps).
Higher US inflation and Fed rate hike fears are adding even more pressure.
Any corrections in AI valuations could hurt its investments and make it difficult to repay such large debt.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
Indonesian markets extended their selloff, with stocks deepening their worst rout in almost 30 years and losses spreading to bonds and the rupiah after MSCI Inc. warned the country may face a two-step downgrade bloom.bg/4dOFaiR
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
European diesel prices are exploding, approaching $200/barrel...
Meanwhile, today's Eurostat report shows eurozone industrial production contracted another 1.1% yoy.
Germany's industrial production is already almost 10% below 2021 levels.
And now another massive energy shock is hitting Europe's already struggling industrial base.
Higher diesel prices mean higher transportation costs, higher production costs and ultimately higher inflation.
But companies can't simply pass on these costs indefinitely...
Margins get crushed, production gets cut, and more factories become uncompetitive.
In other words, Europe is facing another stagflationary shock.
The ECB can fight inflation by crushing demand via rate hikes even further worsening the deindustrialization trend and the sovereign debt crisis
Europe is fucked...
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
GOOD REBOUND IN THE MARKETS
NIKKEI is up 1.1% from the day's bottom, adding ¥14.3 trillion.
KOSPI is up 4.1% from the day's bottom, adding ₩142.98 trillion.
S&P 500 futures: +0.77%.
Nasdaq Futures: +1.21%.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
Oracle has been building data centers at an incredible rate, funded by debt.
That debt is now trading BELOW face value, meaning the market is pricing it for less than what it was originally issued for. And the cost of insuring Oracle’s debt against default is at its HIGHEST level since 2009.
But that's not all...
Oracle raised a $38 BILLION construction loan for data centers in Texas and Wisconsin. Six months later, about $1 BILLION of that debt was still unsold. So the original lenders are now selling parts of it at a DISCOUNT... Taking a loss just to get out.
And it’s not just them.
JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are also moving AI-related loans OFF their balance sheets... Because both are approaching the limits of how much AI financing they’re willing to hold.
Kees van der Burgt retweeted
2027 is about to get crazy: according to Morgan Stanley, hyperscaler and neocloud free cash flow to hit its most negative point in 2027, with the shortfall even bigger once lease payments are include: just shy of $600BN in cash burn.
In other words, the year with the biggest capex bill is also the year with the biggest funding gap.
Nvidia Gets $690BN, The Other 499 Get $340BN: Tracing Every Dollar Of 2027's AI Capex zerohedge.com/markets/nvidia…
