Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
You don't want to miss out on $SIVE. You don't want to miss out on the trade of the decade.
People saw $SIVE rip to $11, watched it come all the way back down to around $3, and now nobody wants it. That's exactly why I think this is the second chance. If you're on X and have access to the information being shared here, consider yourself lucky. You get a chance to look at Sivers again before the next phase starts.
I think what's coming for Sivers is being massively overlooked. Pluggables first, which is the nearer-term commercial opportunity. Then XPO/NPO, moving the optical engine closer to compute. Then CPO, which is where I think the really massive opportunity starts to develop. $SIVE is positioned across all three of these architectures, with its laser technology underneath the entire progression.
Then there's the capacity. Glasgow expanding to more than 100M lasers a year by the end of 2027, with additionally foundries adding even more capacity on top of that. That's a pretty insane setup if demand develops the way I think it will.
If you've passed on $SIVE before, I'd genuinely take another look. We're getting closer and closer to the point where the pluggables, XPO/NPO and eventually CPO story starts playing out in the numbers.
I honestly think Sivers will be one of the biggest trades of the decade from here. I don't think you want to be watching this one from the sidelines when the ramp actually starts.
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
Btw I did some detective work for $SIVE and found this
If you look at the most recent Ayar labs post and zoom in on the first picture, specifically those blue handles.
They appear to be SuperNova light-source modules, which Wiwynn confirms it’s integrating into its AI architecture.
Now look at the ECOC 2024 slide: Sivers demonstrated its 16-wavelength laser array inside SuperNova. The black module in the siver’s slide is what’s inside the casing with the blue handle.
This how sivers becomes a multi-billion dollar company. Their lasers are the hidden critical component needed for CPO and plugables. You wouldn’t know that sivers’s lasers are inside this ayar labs picture in plain sight unless you knew what you’re looking for.
At AI Infra Summit, Ayar Labs is showcasing co-packaged optics at rack scale with Wiwynn and how a robust ecosystem across advanced packaging, ASIC design, and optical connectivity brings CPO to high-volume manufacturing.
bit.ly/4iA3okc
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
I’m convinced this $SIVE position turns into $4-8M by the end of the decade.
50,000 shares at a $1.77 avg. Obviously not as pretty as my old ~$1.25 avg, but I added heavily during the 30%, 40%, 50%+ drawdowns and the average crept up.
What really solidified the thesis for me wasn’t just the short-term push into pluggables. It’s the capacity behind it. If Sivers gets to roughly 300M lasers of annual capacity by the end of 2027, you’re looking at a Tier 1 laser company that doesn’t even need to move further up the stack to generate insane revenue growth.
And I don’t think they stop at lasers. I think they move further up the stack and capture more of the value themselves.
Those buys that pushed my avg higher are going to look incredible in a few years.
My base case is $SIVE becomes a ~$10B company selling lasers alone. Honestly, that might end up being my bear case.
AI data center capex is exploding, photonics TAM is expanding, and Sivers is building the capacity to actually participate in it. It’ll be very interesting to come back to this tweet at the end of the decade and see where we landed.
Assuming we don’t get some completely insane macro/war event that blows up the entire cycle, I’m convinced this becomes a multi-billion-dollar company.
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
You aren't ready for this to become official
It seems increasingly realistic that $SIVE will announce a Chinese customer or partner
They traveled all the way to China to attend CIOE 2026, the event where the big players in the country's photonics industry gather
CEO Vickram Vathulya was there in early June and, according to a LinkedIn post, meetings with potential customers and partners were intense
As Serenity commented, if they confirm they're going to supply lasers to InnoLight (the market leader in global optical connectivity for data centers), the impact would be huge
There are several clues pointing right in that direction
If that happens, 200 SEK will be an understatement for $SIVE, and IMO it would easily justify over 1,000 SEK by 2029
Haha I feel bad for the guy at the $SIVE booth.
Genuinely thanks everyone for helping crowd source channel checks, really appreciate it!
Think the most interesting update overall from Innolight channel checks was explicit confirmation that lasers across 70mW-200mW power range have seen ASP going up.
Sivers also disclosed they raised prices.
That should support gross margin expansion for laser suppliers in future quarters as higher pricing flows through.
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
$SIVE — want to see how stupid the upside gets if Sivers actually becomes a major AI laser supplier?
Do the napkin math:
300M CW lasers/year
× $5/laser
= $1.5 BILLION revenue
Now give a scarce, high-growth AI photonics supplier:
20× sales → $30B
25× → $37.5B
30× → $45B
Assume ~400M diluted shares + ~10 SEK/USD:
→ SEK 750/share
→ SEK 938/share
→ SEK 1,125/share
And here’s the crazy part:
Sivers is already building >100M/year of INTERNAL Glasgow capacity.
The 300M scenario assumes the hybrid model scales external production alongside it.
SEK 1,000 stops looking mathematically insane.
The next $LITE?
Maybe we’re thinking too small.
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
$SIVE ecosystem, and you are bearish?
$SIVE sits at one of AI’s biggest bottlenecks: transferring data fast enough to keep powerful processors working.
As AI clusters grow, they need more optical connections.
Every optical connection needs a reliable light source, and that is where @SiversPhotonics fits.
Its InP lasers and arrays can serve today’s 800G systems, the transition to 1.6T and future technologies such as NPO, CPO and optical I/O.
The architecture may change.
The need for more light does not.
That is the opportunity shown here:
More AI compute → more data → more optical links → more lasers.
$SIVE does not need to win every design.
Its reusable InP100 platform gives the company several paths toward high-volume production as AI infrastructure expands.
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
Nah, $SIVE is the most unusual $1B photonics company I've ever seen.
Just for AI DCs alone:
- Reference laser for $GFS SCALE (CPO/NPO/pluggable)
- 7 pluggable engagements disclosed, with $JBL as primary ramp (with H1 2027 timeline)
- ELS path with O-Net
- ELS path with $POET
- Lasers to Ayar for CPO I/O (now in $NVDA nvlink ecosystem)
- Lasers for $AEVA (which now has NPO agreements with optical engine providers for hyperscalers)
- Celestial/Lightmatter/Lightelligence (likely customers in 2023/2024)
- InP lasers on TFLN with Lightium
Then it has 2 substantial allocations for CW DFB laser capacity during an industry shortage.
As well as one of the few CPO-grade laser suppliers out in the industry.
Let me know what other player around this range has so many ongoing qualifications, a large TAM, and in photonics.
$SIVE is the #1 for me in terms of MC relative to qualifications paths across the industry.
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
I think it’s a good time to revisit $SIVE ~$427m/yr midpoint capacity revenue modeled projections.
Given recent industry earnings:
> $AAOI cited +20-40% demand imbalance for transceivers (with lasers as the bottleneck).
> $MTSI saying many "Customers are coming to us with urgency due to the general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers" (in other product lines)
> US proposal ban on new Chinese optical transceivers (Innolight/Eoptolink)
> AOI no meaningful participation in first-gen CPO deployments due to lasers being allocated toward transceivers.
The read through is that it’s possible to apply the same capacity-demand absorption modeling applying to $AAOI, but for other laser players like Sivers too.
Given the widespread shortage and demand imbalance for InP CW DFB capacity.
Lot of people were curious about $SIVE capacity volume ramp modeling through fab-light (Win Semi + others):
Using 10% of Win's wafer capacity as a low-end allocation (65% yield assumption, $50-$75 ASP):
Sivers would support $341-$512M worth of annual array revenue. Given upper end of managements 50-60%+ gross margin target, would be roughly:
$205–307M of annual gross profit.
Against Sivers current ~$1.1B MC, would be ~:
3.6–5.4× MC/gross profit if this capacity scenario plays out in 2028.
And at 15% would be $307–461M in gross profit (2.4–3.6× MC/gross profit)
Sivers CEO also replied that they're working with more fabs for capacity. And from an older deck, there looks to be more qualifications since 2024.
So capacity targets might be larger than what's stated here as CPO takes off.
I also expect to see revenue pipeline projections hiked in future quarters, as more qualification suppliers to into HVM.
_
As for demand side, CW also happens to be very bottlenecked.
Lumentum are buying CW off the open market due to EML obligations from their ER transcript.
And $AMD are signing LTAs to secure CW capacity (from Trendforce). So when Sivers is ramping with $GFS, $JBL, Ayar, $POET, O-NET and others...
Given the current constraints, it's highly likely any independent qualified capacity that comes online would be absorbed.
And as a cherry on top, Morgan Stanley named $SIVE (~$1.1B) as one of the three leading CPO laser players .
Alongside $55B+ players Coherent and Lumentum in their recent note for a reason...
_
TLDR: Sivers only needs a low end allocation from Win to make substantial gross income relative to current valuations.
I think the largest revenue upside that isn't modeled in if they TAM expansion with M&A after US NASDAQ listing.
By copying the Lumentum playbook with Cloud Light to build out entire transceiver modules or with optical engines.
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
You know, I'm not afraid that $SIVE won't recover
It will, and it will break new highs; the timeframe is just for the market to decide
But there's no way a company like $SIVE ,50 times smaller in MC than $LITE and $COHR
Gets named by Morgan Stanley as a critical piece in AI infrastructure and doesn't compound by dozens of times over time
What I'm actually afraid of is not being able to buy more at these massive discounts, because we will never see these prices again
I can't wait to get paid so I can add more
So, if it goes up, great, the V-shaped recovery we're looking for is here
But if it goes down or lateraly, that's also great because I can load up on way more
That's just how I see it for the long term for $SIVE
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
$SIVE
"The amount of silicon photonics technology capacity that we need is substantially higher than the world has today."
Jensen Huang CEO @nvidia
$SIVE is the source of the laser light for @AyarLabs engines, every single NVLink Fusion deployment that utilizes Ayar Labs automatically requires $SIVE hardware.
They are functionally tethered to $NVDA scaling roadmap.
$SIVE has already qualified its laser technology for high-volume commercial manufacturing through its partnership with $GFS.
While other optical startups are still in the prototyping phase or trying to build out supply chains, $SIVE is positioned to fulfill the exact capacity shortage Jensen Huang highlighted.
Developing multi-wavelength, highly reliable laser arrays that can operate under the extreme temperature and performance requirements of an AI data center takes years of R&D.
$SIVE owns the intellectual property and manufacturing validation for these specific lasers, making them incredibly difficult for a competitor to quickly replace.
Chasing Blue Skies retweeted
$SIVE FUD Destroyed.
Three new $SIVE insider purchases today.
Most notably: $SIVEF CEO Vikram bought 1,000,000 SEK worth of shares on the open market today.
This is following the massive drop on Sivers stock following 2 misleading CPO delay reports, Meta Compute headlines, and another insider sale report from another photonics director.
Typically, insider sells for any number of reasons. But having the CEO buy on the open-market is the clearest signal in management confidence.
Following $GFS, $JBL, and other laser supplier partnerships, and his goal of NASDAQ listing in the near term.
Feels like the CEO sees a clear potential for Sivers to become the next photonics giant (myself included).