@jremis

Né à Gijon, Asturias, Espagne. Astronome, lecteur et cinéphile.

 Saint Avold Moselle
Joined November 2009
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New paper out on arXiv: arxiv.org/abs/2607.20128 It explains a lightweight way to predict atmospheric re-entries using only public TLEs. My hope is that some of you will jump in and start making your own predictions, with this method or any other you prefer. More voices, more analysts, more independent checks. Give it a look. #SkyfallWatch

Predicting Atmospheric Re-entries Using Segmented M/A Calibration...

We present a reproducible method for predicting atmospheric re-entries using only publicly available Two-Line Elements (TLEs). The approach is based on a segmented calibration of the effective...

arxiv.org
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Update: obj. 58435 COSMOS 2572 decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 03:22 ± 1.1h
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Final TIP: 2026-10-19 UTC 05:41:00 ± 1min 16.9S 100.3E satflare.com/track.asp?q=584…
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Obj. 53891 STARLINK-5041 decay prediction: October 20, 2026 UTC 22:06 ± 7h
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Update: obj. 53448 JILIN-1 GAOFEN 03D43 decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 15:47 ± 4h
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Update: obj. 48376 STARLINK-2610 decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 15:46 ± 2h
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Obj. 47728 STARLINK-2131 decay prediction: October 21, 2026 UTC 05:15 ± 8h
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Obj. 47627 STARLINK-1972 decay prediction: October 21, 2026 UTC 07:06 ± 9h
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Update: obj. 46460 JILIN-01 GAOFEN 3H decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 18:09 ± 3h
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Update: obj. 45377 STARLINK-1305 decay prediction: October 20, 2026 UTC 02:33 ± 4h
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Obj. 101070 ZQ-2E R/B decay notice: October 18, 2026 UTC 10:33 ± 1min Thanks to Mohammad Odeh for alerting me to the observation of this object over Brunei.
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Update: obj. 58435 COSMOS 2572 decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 02:03 ± 3h
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Obj. 48376 STARLINK-2610 decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 20:42 ± 8h
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Obj. 45377 STARLINK-1305 decay prediction: October 20, 2026 UTC 10:31 ± 11h
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Update: obj. 58435 COSMOS 2572 decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 03:38 ± 7h
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Obj. 53448 JILIN-1 GAOFEN 03D43 decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 19:25 ± 15h
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Obj. 46460 JILIN-01 GAOFEN 3H decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 19:39 ± 11h
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Update: obj. 54776 STARLINK-5470 decay prediction: October 16, 2026 UTC 10:00 ± 1.6h
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Final TIP: 2026-10-16 UTC 11:28:00 ± 1min 51.7S 171.1 W satflare.com/track.asp?q=547…
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Update: obj. 58435 COSMOS 2572 decay prediction: October 19, 2026 UTC 01:40 ± 15h
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