health economics, policy n research. overtreatment, clinical trials (value, cost), NICE, etc

Joined June 2011
James Raftery retweeted
Party to celebrate Ian Hislop's 40 years as editor of Private Eye & 65 years at the magazine. Has anyone currently in public life held the same job for longer? The Eye is the greatest journalistic institution of my lifetime. Long may Ian and the Eye reign.
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I'm intrigued so few people point to parallels between the promised 'AI Golden Age' and old-fashioned communism. The key promises are essentially the same: infinite wealth for everyone without any work or effort needed, empowerment of the masses, elimination of the intellectual elite, and whatnot ...
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James Raftery retweeted
a while since I've posted a poem from frolicsome Philip Larkin one of my favs:
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James Raftery retweeted
Obituary headlines are describing Lord Archer as 'colourful'. Given that he was sentenced to four years in prison for perjury and perverting the course of justice, that's a very polite way of putting it.
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James Raftery retweeted
Someone please write a country song called "My Kids Have Measles and I Can't Buy Diesel"
My kids have measles, I can't afford diesel, my country has been humiliated by Iran, and I have explosive diarrhea from a parasite the CDC no longer monitors. But at least now I can go to the lesbian bar without putting on a mask.
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James Raftery retweeted
OFFICIAL STATEMENT - Yesterday, I made a serious mistake while trying to register the domain name helpdanny.org, and instead of directing all web traffic from it towards an appeal to help the recently arrested Danny Tommo, all visitors were sent to my RNLI appeal for The Flying Farage instead and it’s jumped up to £397,173. Upon realising my mistake, I tried to log back into the control panel provided by the domain name company, but I couldn’t find the piece of paper that I wrote the password on. Upon further investigation, I learned that my eight-year-old had turned it into a paper plane and it had flown out of the back door and into the garden, where a waiting badger picked it up and then ran off to use it as bedding in his sett. They can be quite vicious apparently so I didn’t want to try and get it back in case it scratched me, and so I’ve been trying to guess the password. I’m pretty certain that it’s 26 random characters long but with the word ‘frenulum’ in the middle, but until I’ve figured it out the domain name will have to take people to my RNLI appeal instead. Thanks for your understanding in this matter.
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The mesmerizing patterns formed on China's Qiantang River at sunset when a tidal bore splits in two and collides with itself.
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I agree with Dale Vince (I often do). You want a British passport. You pay tax to Britain. You move to avoid paying tax, the tax payer does not pick up your repatriation costs (see Dubai). Surrender your passport and citizenship if you don’t want to pay British tax. Just like USA
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James Raftery retweeted
Yvon Chouinard, the founder of Patagonia, has made the planet itself the sole beneficiary and effective "shareholder" of his company. In an extraordinary move that redefined corporate ownership, Chouinard transferred full control of the $3 billion outdoor apparel brand away from his family. He placed 100% of the company into a carefully designed structure consisting of a trust and a nonprofit organization, both dedicated to combating the climate crisis and protecting the natural world. Under this new arrangement, the Chouinard family gave up any claim to personal profits. Instead, all earnings not reinvested in growing the business—roughly $100 million each year—now flow directly to environmental causes, funding the preservation of wild lands, conservation efforts, and initiatives to fight climate change. In essence, Patagonia now exists to serve Earth as its only true shareholder, placing planetary survival above the accumulation of private wealth. The model has already delivered significant results. As of 2025, the company had channeled an additional $180 million into nature-protection projects. The structure relies on two key entities: the Patagonia Purpose Trust, which safeguards the company’s original mission and values, and the Holdfast Collective, a nonprofit that directs the profits toward high-impact environmental work. Rather than selling the business to the highest bidder or taking it public, Chouinard chose this radical path—creating what many see as a groundbreaking template for purpose-driven capitalism. Patagonia has shown that a for-profit company can become a powerful force for ecological restoration while remaining financially successful. [Chouinard, Y. (2022). Patagonia's Next Chapter: Earth is Now Our Only Shareholder. Patagonia Works]
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Wonder-full! Must read…..
Inspiring stuff from Nick Bostrom nickbostrom.com/utopia.pdf (Note that his Utopia, like our present, would only be the beginning of infinity.)
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James Raftery retweeted
Swans might have one of the most underrated landing techniques in the animal kingdom.
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James Raftery retweeted
Some encounters are powerful enough to rearrange the sea.
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James Raftery retweeted
"Please raise your right hand. I pledge to the greatest president in the history of the United States. That loves us so much he can’t even breathe. That I will go out with my family, my friends, I’ll do it any way — I don’t care if I’m registered or not, I’m going to try to cheat like hell like they do." Donald Trump appealing for mid-term votes.
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James Raftery retweeted
Works in Progress may be the most interesting magazine publishing today. This article on the evolution of horses nicely illustrates the power of selection (natural and artificial) of heritable traits to shape a species, but also the massive role of developmental chance: Secretariat, history's fastest horse, had a massive heart, in his case a non-genetic trait which was not passed on to his descendants. worksinprogress.co/issue/the…
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I suspect AI will kill us all before UK MPs allow terminally ill people to die a bit quicker
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Welcome to the UK where thousands of people who are already dying, and want to die a bit quicker, are not allowed to. And thousands of people who don’t want to die end up dying because they can’t get access to the right care quickly.
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James Raftery retweeted
Normally a company that said that its product had a 10% plus chance of exterminating humanity would be shut down immediately. Just saying.
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Striking results from NHS funded trial. High cost due to long term follow up. Well done all involved!
1,643 men with localized prostate cancer were randomized to surgery, radiation, or active monitoring. Fifteen years later, deaths from prostate cancer: Monitoring — 3.1% Surgery — 2.2% Radiation — 2.9% P = 0.53. No difference. None. Surgery and radiation halved metastasis and progression. It bought not one additional year of life. A quarter of the monitored men were alive at 15 years having received no treatment at all. Under standard care every one of them would have been cut or irradiated. And every one would have been counted afterward as a life the treatment saved. The men who were treated paid in incontinence, impotence, and bowel injury. Here is the conclusion of the investigators themselves, in the New England Journal of Medicine: "Depending on the extent of side effects associated with early radical treatments, more aggressive therapy can result in more harm than good." That is Oxford. In NEJM. Reporting their own 15-year randomized trial. The scandal is not that the treatments harm (and they do). It is that the choice was never offered. 👉Dive deeper in my latest investigation on the topic: sayerji.substack.com/p/25-ca…
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James Raftery retweeted
I can't get enough of this family of illusions (not least because it took me so long to figure out how they work).
なんと動いてません
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