James Picerno (@jpicerno) profile picture

Editor, The ETF Portfolio Strategist: https://xitter.cf/t.co/hP7fVSL111, author: Quantitative Investment Portfolio Analytics In R

Joined June 2009
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The trend still looks bullish for energy stocks (XLE), which continue to bounce off a key trend line:
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Research Review | 13 November 2026 | Portfolio Analytics: capitalspectator.substack.co…
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Sell first and ask questions later, Nvidia edition:
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Back above the 5% mark, 10yr yield edition:
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The Bond Rally Faces a Reality Check: capitalspectator.substack.co…
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The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 11 NOV 2026 Trend Watch: Defensive Equities Index: etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf…
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Does the Yield Curve Still Predict Recessions? tmcresearch.com/p/does-the-y…
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Inflation Fears Push Treasury Yields Further Above Fair Value: capitalspectator.substack.co…
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Today's warm consumer inflation data for October prompts a rethink in the bond market: the policy-sensitive 2yr yield rebounds sharply, trading near 4.74%:
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US consumer inflation rose more than expected in October, increasing 0.4% from September at the headline level & 0.3% for core CPI. No yearly rate was published because of the govt shutdown a year ago, which prevented the Bureau of Labor Stats from updating the numbers:
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Stocks Rebound, but the Real Test Lies Ahead: capitalspectator.substack.co…
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On sale, Nasdaq edition: Bloomberg's John Authers reports: "The Nasdaq 100 now trades at a multiple of blended 12-month forward projected earnings that it hasn’t seen since Covid’s worst days."
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GDP Nowcasts Signal Strong Finish to 2026: capitalspectator.substack.co…
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The ETF Portfolio Strategist: 08 NOV 2026 Trend Watch: Global Markets & Portfolio Strategy Benchmarks: etfps.substack.com/p/the-etf…
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US Business Cycle Risk Report: 7 NOV 2026: usbcrr.substack.com/p/us-bus…
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Hiring roared back in October--US nonfarm payrolls rose 165,000 last month. Combined with yesterday's low jobless claims data, today's numbers reaffirm low risk for the labor mkt outlook and support the recent economic numbers that point to low recession risk:
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AI Meets Politics: A New Test for Tech Stocks: capitalspectator.substack.co…
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Demand for Treasuries surges today as stocks plunge. The 1-3 Treasury ETF (SHY) roars to a new high as the haven trade roars:
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The low-hire/low-fire labor market train rolls forward as jobless claims dip below the 190k mark, reflecting layoffs at/near the lowest level in decades:
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