Senior Lecturer | @warstudies @kingscollegelon | Politics & Security | Views mine.

London
Joined September 2012
Research Handbook on #Cyberwarfare is out today! | Edited by @tcstvns & me, with 23 chapters from an outstanding group of contributors, covering the theory, practice, governance, actors & institutions involved in #cyberwarfare @warstudies @ElgarPublishing elgaronline.com/edcollbook/b…
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I’m still doubtful we will see really major uplift in defence spending before the next election, or a Labour manifesto that pledges to reach 3.5% in the next parliament. It would so damage their ability to pursue a wider agenda that I can’t see it making political sense.
The head of the army has told hundreds of his soldiers that the country will need them to fight in a war given the “extreme jeopardy in the world at the moment”. General Sir Roly Walker, chief of the general staff, said the “business of soldiering” had returned to the national psyche and that the country’s days of not having to think about conflict were over. The former special forces commander, who survived a Taliban bomb, warned that “very soon” political leaders would have a “frank conversation” with ordinary citizens about how they needed to get ready. thetimes.com/uk/defence/arti…
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I enjoy reading pieces like this, to see what people afforded a reasonable degree of anonymity are willing to say about UK policy and the performance of specific ministers/the PM. But it's worth noting that the source selection helps advance a particular argument.
National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell telling friends he might quit - which would be pretty huge. He’s the collective memory on the political side and one of the few with good contacts in Washington and the Middle East spectator.com/article/does-a…
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And re: interplay between domestic factors & UK foreign policy, arguably couldn't you ascribe this apparent difference largely to the Burnham premiership having a keener sense than Starmer's of how to stitch together its domestic political interests and its foreign policy?
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So far, I think Burnham's foreign policy is unfolding largely as you would have expected. At least, I think the judgements I made about it back in July still stand up relatively well. politicsandsecurity.substack…
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These are not contradictory statements.
Sunday: Andy Burnham says he's been told of 'clear' evidence that Russia interfered with the 2016 Brexit vote. Monday: Foreign Office minister Stephen Doughty: ‘The security minister’s been very clear that they’ve attempted but not succeeded, in evidence he gave previously.'
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This is a good report on the NCID announcement by @AlexMartin, with quotes from Sophie Williams-Dunning (@RUSI_org) and me (@warstudies). I’d generally be in favour of making existing arrangements work better, not pulling the MoG change lever, but it will be interesting to watch.
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I’d want to know more about what the government thinks isn’t working, & why, in existing arrangements, before judging the need for a new centre for information defence. It’s announceable, which is something, but is it the best way to improve outcomes?
Security chiefs to set up new national centre to tackle disinformation and deepfakes from hostile states like Russia - with Andy Burnham saying government has a duty to “stem the poisonous tide” from damaging British interests. National Centre for Information Defence will “detect, attribute and disrupt” info attacks by foreign powers by bringing together intelligence agencies, law enforcement & social media companies. It will boost UK’s defensive capability to combat information warfare and build national resilience by helping communities combat disinfo, preventing “distorted & untrue” narrative about UK. theguardian.com/technology/2…
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“Let’s have a new centre” can mean a lot of different things, from largely rebadging existing effort, to a significant rethink of your approach, & devoting new resources to match. Unclear where on the spectrum this will sit, & whether these details are already worked out.
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This might well be a problem that is too big for the UK government to solve on its own, but that doesn’t mean an improved HMG effort can’t be a positive. But the success or failure of that change will depend to a large extent on how well conceived it is.
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Joe Devanny retweeted
I wrote about the Holborn and St Pancras by-election and what it means for the future of the British left in this week's edition of the @NewStatesman -- pick up a copy!
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I thought this too re: the use of "ignored". Advice about the pros and cons of the timing was totally reasonable for officials to give, the argument has merit, but ministers decide. Ditto re: talking through the possible spiral of retaliatory gestures, & how to mitigate them.
Advisers advise, leaders decide. This advice was disagreed with - not ignored.
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But also, I think this is a different piece to the earlier NSC one, which government was rightly angry about. The sourcing here seems more carefully identified throughout as former officials and political figures, rather than direct criticism from serving officials.
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Worth also adding perhaps that SIS has a new chief and you'd expect over the first year or so a certain amount of churn as older officers move out and some things change. It's at least not surprising that some disgruntlement would find its way into the press.
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Was another think tank the answer? Why not in-house Labour Party research? And his alternative has some problems, potentially swapping the burden of public scrutiny for an increased vulnerability to espionage and donor influence.
New: Morgan McSweeney tried to set up a think tank *for* No. 10 which would be "protected from the level of scrutiny" that comes with government Speaking at a "no media" allowed event — I was passed a recording — McSweeney said he was working on this before he left No. 10
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Interesting to see if this means Burnham wants a slightly more public version of the NSA role than Powell played under Starmer.
Rare public outing by UK NSA Jonathan Powell. Ukraine "feels difficult" but "strong reasons for optimism". Pressure on Putin working. Talk of escalation "sign of success". Warns Europe not to "take foot off gas" despite "real hardship" this winter. bbc.com/news/articles/crr4en…
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Joe Devanny retweeted
EXCL: Lindy Cameron, UK high commissioner to India, is set to become the first female perm sec at the Foreign Office, @FT told Cameron, an ex-chief exec of the National Cyber Security Centre, beat Karen Pierce and Barbara Woodward in the final round ft.com/content/360dfa5f-1ed8…
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I'm sure that's possible, just as its opposite, the affirmative slogan 'welfare not warfare' is already in use. But a sense of social/societal/economic security should clearly be an intrinsic part of any coherent conception of national security, as should strong defence.
Prediction: Andy Burnham is going to really regret his line that national security "can't come at the expense of social security". One of the billboards at the next election.
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Joe Devanny retweeted
In his sanctions speech, Ed Miliband stated the obvious: the occupation is illegal & entwined with ethnic cleansing. Amid Israel's retaliation, UK Jews' fears & Trump, the 'Green Line Israel' policy is also a warning to a post-Netanyahu Israel @haaretzcom haaretz.com/israel-news/isra…
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