Excited to be speaking at the inaugural Digital Credit Conference in a couple of weeks, alongside a number of fantastic speakers. Looking forward to chatting about MORE and the wider sector forming. LSE: #SWC #MORE | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8

A year ago today, Bitcoin printed its all-time high of $126,000. Today we sit at around $86,000. The drawdown from that high was around 54%. That was painful, and it lasted long enough that plenty of people wrote the cycle off. But it was shallower than the last two, which both washed out by three quarters or more. What followed was very quiet. From the start of July until mid-August, Bitcoin traded in a tight range and volatility fell to around record lows. Then in mid-August we had a sharp, mostly unexpected move higher, and from my own perspective things have looked far more positive since. Bitcoin has done all of that against a difficult macro backdrop. The war with Iran is still ongoing, and oil prices have spiked, which has kept inflation concerns alive. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September, its first hike since 2023. US Treasury yields have climbed to their highest levels since 2002, with the 10-year above 5.3% and the 30-year touching 5.7% yesterday. They have kept rising even after the US Treasury stepped in with buybacks. There was also disruption from a major hack of Coldcard hardware wallets, and the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate. Through all of it, Bitcoin has held strong. Since the July low it is up around 48% in dollar terms and roughly 44% against gold. @glassnode's latest weekly update shows that on-chain activity is strong, new capital is still arriving, and the large majority of supply is in profit. ETF demand has cooled after a strong prior week, but flows have stayed positive. That does not look like an exhausted market. In my personal opinion, it looks like a market that has done the hard part of the repair, and I believe we are prepared to go higher. What I am most excited about is Digital Credit. In my opinion it is the biggest story in Bitcoin, and it was barely a market when the high was printed. $STRC and $SATA both fell from par over the summer, but that stress-test became a learning curve for the sector about what the market wants from these products. The recovery since has been encouraging: $SATA has now been at par for over a month, and $STRC is within $1 of par. The Bitcoin treasury industry as a whole has also matured through the bear market. I believe Digital Credit has emerged as the next evolution of the model, and I am excited about Smarter Web's role in this with MORE listing soon on the LSE, subject to prospectus conditions. I think we are in a good place, and I am more bullish than ever. LSE: #SWC | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8

On last week's Smarter Web Livestream, Lance Vitanza of TD Cowen was asked what he is really trying to assess when he looks at a Bitcoin treasury company. He said that if he had to reduce it to a single thought, it would be "a company's ability to convert capital access into sustainable Bitcoin per share growth across a full market cycle." The objective of a Bitcoin treasury company is not simply to own Bitcoin. It is to increase the amount of Bitcoin attributable to each share over time. Whenever Lance talks about this, he is careful to say it applies to a well-run treasury company. The conversation was a useful reminder of what that qualifier actually means. First, conviction is not enough. Lance made the point that some treasury companies have failed not because leadership lacked belief in Bitcoin, but because they lacked the technical ability to execute. Raising capital at the right time and price, and deploying it in a way that is accretive to existing shareholders, is a skill in its own right. Second, capital access is cyclical. A strategy that assumes capital markets will always be open and inexpensive is not robust. A well-run company has more than one way to raise capital, and the flexibility to move between them as conditions change. Third, the balance sheet has to be built for difficult periods. That means sufficient liquidity, manageable fixed obligations, and the discipline to avoid becoming a forced seller of Bitcoin or a forced issuer of shares at unattractive prices. Lance's test is whether a company could withstand an 80% fall in Bitcoin lasting two years without a blow-up. Fourth, per share execution has to be judged across the full cycle. Accumulating more Bitcoin is not an achievement if the financing used to acquire it destroys value for existing shareholders. Finally, management needs to explain clearly why the company exists and how it intends to create value. It then needs to stick to that through good times and bad. None of this is glamorous, and very little of it shows up in a single day's share price. But I believe this is what may separate the companies that go on to compound Bitcoin per share over many years from those that simply benefited from a favourable market. If you missed the livestream, it is well worth 50 minutes of your time. Go watch it below. LSE: #SWC | OTCQB: $TSWCF | FRA: $3M8